Kirk Cousins Is More Than a Consolation Prize

The Spotlight Series

A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.

More than a Consolation Prize

For years, Philip Rivers was the fantasy quarterback nobody really wanted to draft but begrudgingly did so after all the consensus top-10 options were off the board. And most seasons, the fantasy managers who ‘settled’ for Rivers ended up getting a valuable asset at a discount draft price. Kirk Cousins has grabbed that baton in recent years and now holds the dubious honor of “QB Consolation Prize.” While the rationale driving draft indifference is understandable, that doesn’t mean it’s accurate. This year, Cousins provides the high floor endemic of his consolation prize label but offers the same elite upside that drives many to reach for less proven, young quarterbacks.

• He almost always outperforms his average draft position (ADP)
• He’s almost always a top-12 quarterback
• He’s performed at a high level amid unfathomable coaching volatility
• A new coaching staff and offensive system puts a top-five finish within reach

A Consistent ADP Value

A disproportionate percentage of fantasy managers try to wait on drafting quarterbacks. They believe there’s little difference between passers after the first few quarterbacks come off the board and try to time their quarterback selections to capture the bottom end of a tier of players they see as roughly equivalent. The problem is most fantasy managers get it wrong. If six of twelve people in your league wait to take the “last viable quarterback,” by definition, most of them miscalculate.

Kirk Cousins has been a full-time starter for seven seasons. Take a look at his ADP and his season-ending fantasy rankings:

TABLE: Kirk Cousins’ Annual ADP vs. Year-End Fantasy Ranking

On average, Cousins has been drafted 17th (16.9) and finished 10th (9.6), outperforming his draft position by more than seven spots. You won’t find another veteran at any position with that kind of value arbitrage. It never happens because most players eventually get over-drafted after a few strong seasons. As important, Cousins has never busted. At worst, he’s finished one spot lower than his ADP.

(Almost) Always a Top-12 Quarterback

TABLE: Kirk Cousins’ Year-End Fantasy Ranking

• Top 5 Seasons – 2 (29% of the time)
• Top 10 Seasons – 5 (71%)
• Top 12 Seasons – 6 (86%)

How many quarterbacks have been top-10 fantasy contributors in five seasons, much less five of seven?

Success Despite Inconceivable Volatility

Continuity is a critical component of NFL success. Once a team gets things right, the goal is to keep all the pieces together for as long as possible. The annals of NFL history are littered with players who tasted success only to see it fade away when their play-caller left for a head-coaching vacancy or a key receiver left in free agency, or they themselves changed teams. Kirk Cousins has dealt with all these issues and thrived regardless of circumstance.

When Cousins takes the field this year, he’ll be partnered with the seventh play-caller of his eight-year starting career. Let that sink in. Cousins has had different player callers for seven consecutive seasons after starting his career with two years of Sean McVay.

TABLE: Kirk Cousins’ Play-Callers, by Season

Has any quarterback ever dealt with as much change? Each play-caller had very different approaches to offense. Look at his team’s ranking in passing attempts by year.

• 2015 Washington – 20th in pass attempts (Cousins finished QB9)
• 2016 Washington – 7th (QB5)
• 2017 Washington – 18th (QB5)
• 2018 Minnesota – 6th (QB9)
• 2019 Minnesota – 30th (QB19)
• 2020 Minnesota – 27th (QB11)
• 2021 Minnesota – 11th (QB9)

In all but the 2018 season, Cousins’ fantasy value outperformed his team’s passing attempt ranking while dealing with new play-callers.

A New Coaching Era

Mike Zimmer was a good head coach, but his teams often played overly conservatively like many defensive-minded coaches, even when the offensive personnel argued for a more aggressive approach. It’s no surprise the Vikings ownership chose a young offensive-minded coach as Zimmer’s replacement. Kevin O’Connell is the second-youngest coach in the league (behind his former boss, Sean McVay). At 37 years old, he’s a rising star who Vikings fans hope has the same offensive mastery as his mentor.

• 2015 – CLE QB Coach
• 2016 – SF Offensive Assistant
• 2017 – WAS QB Coach
• 2018 – WAS QB Coach
• 2019 – WAS Offensive Coordinator
• 2020 – LAR Offensive Coordinator
• 2021 – LAR Offensive Coordinator

Cousins and O’Connell overlapped for one season in Washington (2017), but O’Connell spent the last two seasons as McVay’s right-hand man. And McVay was the offensive architect of Washington’s system when Cousins enjoyed his two top-5 fantasy seasons. The hope is O’Connell will bring the same fast-paced, scheme-adaptive concepts the Rams used to win the Super Bowl last year to Minnesota.

Where Things Could Go Wrong

Projecting fantasy outcomes is as much art as science. We have to consider a range of outcomes versus a singular stat line. While Cousins’ range of outcomes skews heavily toward outperforming his draft-day cost, there are issues to be mindful of that could derail his season.

• Lack of skill position depth – Justin Jefferson is in his prime and among the elite, but Adam Thielen is coming off an injury-marred season and on the wrong side of 30. The tight end position is unsettled, and the running back room leaves much to be desired beyond star Dalvin Cook.
• Below average offensive line play – Our own Matt Bitonti ranks the Vikings offensive line 19th, as does Pro Football Focus.
• Kevin O’Connell has never called plays – While O’Connell is well pedigreed, he’s never called plays. Many heralded assistant coaches have failed to match their mentors’ abilities once the arrows start flying.
• Lack of rushing upside – Cousins is among the least mobile fantasy-viable quarterbacks, and it’s challenging to finish as a top-5 value these days without the benefit of rushing stats.

PROJECTIONS AND STATS

Final Thoughts

If you ask most fantasy managers whether they want players with a high floor and top-tier upside, they’ll say “every chance I get.” Yet, when said player is named Kirk Cousins, suddenly they recoil. Ultimately, this comes down to mispricing of perceived upside. If you’re in a shallow league where there will always be starting quarterbacks on the waiver wire, then a high-floor player like Cousins shouldn’t be a priority. But most of us play in leagues where we routinely roster at least two quarterbacks, in which case Cousins is a nearly perfect draft day choice. He outperforms ADP, finishes as a top-12 signal-caller, and gets a new coaching staff bringing the same principles that allowed Cousins to deliver top-5 value when he was with the Commanders.