Fantasy Overview - Week 6

As we enter Week 6 of the 2022 season, I want to share some tips, advice, and thoughts on various players, teams, and situations. With all of the outlets and resources available now, it is becoming more difficult to separate yourself from the rest of the pack when it comes to knowledge and strategy. To gain that extra edge, you have to make proactive moves that cash in, plan ahead, know your players' schedules, read helpful columns, and above all, execute the game plan for success. In no particular order, here are a few items that can help you gain that edge.

1. BE AWARE OF PLAYERS RETURNING FROM INJURY, AS WELL AS PLAYERS BENEFITING FROM AN INJURY

• Elijah Mitchell RB, SF - Elijah Mitchell (knee MCL) is on short-term IR and will be out for 6-8 weeks dating back to Week 1. Jeff Wilson has assumed the lead role in his absence with additional contributions from Tevin Coleman. Tyrion Davis-Price and Jordan Mason could also see reps in the coming weeks, especially if an injury elevates them further.
  
  
• Gus Edwards RB, BAL - The Ravens have long been a running back by committee team, which should continue once Gus Edwards shows he can be relied upon as a productive running back in the Baltimore rotation. Edwards has a career 5.2 yards per carry and is someone to stash as a potential gem in the coming weeks, especially for deeper leagues.
  
  
• Rhamondre Stevenson RB, NE - Damien Harris is dealing with a multiple-week hamstring strain and may not return until after the Patriots' Week 10 bye. That leaves plenty of opportunity for Stevenson to take the bull by the horns and put up strong numbers. New England's schedule in the coming weeks includes at CLE, CHI, at NYJ, IND, Bye.
  
  
• Damien Williams RB, ATL - Before he was sidelined with a rib injury in Week 1, Williams was considered the top back behind Cordarrelle Patterson. Now that Patterson is out for at least 3 more weeks and Williams is scheduled to return in, possibly in Week 6, we may see him in an elevated role soon. Tyler Allgeier has a grasp in the backfield at this time, but Williams could supplant him if and when he is healthy and ready to return.
  
  
• Eno Benjamin, ARI - James Conner is known for having many lingering injuries that nag him throughout the season. He managed to escape this last year, but the injuries through five weeks are starting to pile up. Benjamin has yet to show up big but he does several things well as a running back and is capable of putting up damaging points against a favorable matchup at Seattle in Week 6.

• Kyle Philips WR, TEN - Philips jumped out to a notable role in Week 1, leading the team with a 29% team target share. A shoulder injury slowed his ascent in the coming weeks but now that Treylon Burks is dealing with a noticeable turf toe injury, Philips may see more opportunities.
  
  
• Melvin Gordon RB, DEN - The loss of Javonte Williams to an ACL tear hurts the Broncos offense, but it also elevates the potential outcome for Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone. Gordon will get the first crack at being the primary running back role, but ball security issues and father time could ultimately give way to Boone. One or the other may wind up being a fantasy-relevant option this season. Past history and success lean Gordon in this role but don't be surprised if he can't answer the bell the way we're expecting. Latavius Murray will also throw his hat into the ring as a potential player waiting to seize the moment.
  
  
• Kadarius Toney WR, NYG - Kadarius Toney can stick his foot in the ground and make a play, and he is capable of having sound production any given week. Will he be consistent? That's debatable. He could be the next big thing in New York once he is healthy enough to join the field. If the Giants continue to surprise people and if Toney arrives just in time, he may be a catalyst for this team down the stretch, and right now, he's virtually free.
  
  
• Devin Duvernay WR, BAL - The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have surprisingly leaned on Devin Duvernay this season, and a foot injury to Rashod Bateman has made him fantasy relevant for a stretch. Duvernay possesses a dual-threat approach to his game and has shown that he can be productive as a runner and receiver. Baltimore can barely fit one fantasy wide receiver in their offense, let alone two. When Bateman returns, Duvernay's clock might strike midnight. In the meantime, he's a decent option if you need help.

2. STAY ACTIVE ON THE WAIVER WIRE, BUT ALSO SEE WHO OTHERS ARE DROPPING AND BE PREPARED TO CLAIM

Be active on the waiver wire, targeting players with a productive future, not just a one-game outing. How do you know the difference? Targets and snap counts will give a clue as to the player's involvement in the offense. You want players with at least 65-70% of the team's offensive snaps and generally five targets or more and a good game to show for it. Team Target Share% is also a good indicator. Anything over 20% is strong. Potential waiver claims with strong usage include...

• Hunter Henry TE, NE - 20%, 24% team target share in Weeks 4 and 5. And now Jonnu Smith is hurt.
• Raheem Mostert RB, MIA - 68% and 69% rushing market share in Weeks 4 and 5. He is taking over the backfield in Miami.
• Rondale Moore, ARI - After being out with a hamstring injury, Moore saw an 86% and 91% snap percentage in Weeks 4 and 5. His team target share was 21% in Week 5.
• Donovan Peoples-Jones WR, CLE - 26% and 22% team target share in the last two games.
• Michael Gallup WR, DAL - Gallup has returned from ACL rehab and with moderate involvement. Last week he reached a 31% team target share.
• Dameon Pierce RB, HOU - In Week 5, Pierce topped 79% rushing market share and a 21% team target share. He is becoming dominant as a rusher and receiver.
• Alec Pierce WR, IND - Pierce had a breakout game in Week 5 after his team target share rose from 14 to 17 to 25% over the last three games. An injury and IR stint to WR Ashton Dulin further elevates Pierce in the receiving corp for the Colts.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster WR, KC - Smith-Schuster may not be seeing much in terms of production in a crowded Chiefs receiving corps, but he is getting targets. 24, 24, and 19% team target share over the last three weeks.
• Tyler Lockett WR, SEA - The Seahawks have surprised this season amidst speculation of doom and gloom. Tyler Lockett has a 25% or higher team targets share in every game but one this season. He continues to be a quiet force on your fantasy roster.
• Robert Woods WR, TEN - With Treylon Burks dealing with a fairly severe turf toe injury, Woods has taken the role of lead wide receiver in Tennessee. He has four games of 23% or higher for team target share, including a 35% tally in Week 5.

Waiver Wire Tips

• Target players who have risen in the depth chart due to an injury or performance. Jeff Wilson is a good example is this, as are Tyler Boyd and Tyler Allgeier. This is also true for quarterbacks. While it hasn't been a big year for backup quarterback success stories, Cooper Rush and, recently, Teddy Bridgewater and Bailey Zappe are examples of quarterbacks who could yield value in multiple-quarterback leagues.
• There are several different variations for obtaining players available on the waiver wire - there's your first-come, first-serve waiver, which can be great if you're on the ball and ahead of your league mates. You get the player you want, and you don't have to outbid anyone else to claim that player. There's an order of rankings waiver order, which is not as good as first-come, first-serve (FCFS), but it can still be a beneficial and perhaps an easy way to get the players you want. When bidding becomes the process for obtaining players, you have to know how much you have to spend, what the maximum budget is for the season, and how important it is to acquire a player at all costs. Generally, spending in the early weeks of the season is the way to acquire coveted players, but saving your free agent budget could prove helpful later on when your starting running back gets hurt and you need his replacement - hopefully, he's on the waiver wire.
• Be ready to pounce on players who are dropped. In some leagues, waivers are run after 10:00 pm and possibly later. This is a good time to pounce on players when the activity level of your leaguemates is lower. Those on the west coast can especially benefit from this. Let's say your leaguemate wants to acquire the flavor of the week, but he/she has to drop someone to keep their roster legal. Be ready to make a move, especially if your league allows immediate acquisition of players who were recently dropped.
• Generally, fantasy teams only keep one defense on their roster (if your league includes team defenses). Be ready to scoop up a high-performing defense that was dropped due to a bye week, especially if you have the space on your roster to temporarily house two defenses. Buffalo and Philadelphia have a Week 7 bye coming up. A team may elect to drop them, which would be a nice pickup. Philadelphia and Buffalo are #2, and #3 in team defense The Eagles have 17 sacks and have forced 11 turnovers, and the Bills have 16 sacks and 11 turnovers.

3. READ OTHER FOOTBALLGUYS ARTICLES

Footballguys produces a ton of weekly content. If you're reading this article, you also have access to these outstanding weekly must-read pieces, among others that we provide at Footballguys.

• UPGRADES AND DOWNGRADES - by Sigmund Bloom. This will tell you who you should target on the waiver wire, how much you should spend (if bidding), and a commentary on why players have been upgraded or downgraded. We do the work for you in this weekly piece. Posted weekly Monday late afternoon or early evening. If you're in IDP leagues, Aaron Rudnicki does the same for IDP players in his IDP UPGRADES article.
  
  
• Another must-read weekly article is WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM LAST WEEK by Sigmund Bloom. This keeps you informed of all of the ups and downs around the league in an easy-to-read format. A Cliff Notes version of the league's landscape to keep you in the know.
  
  
• THE TOP 10 - by Matt Waldman. Each week Matt shares 10 important facets of the game, which can be player-driven, coach-driven, scheme-driven, or just chronicling things he observed in last week's slate of games. Not only does he share his thoughts, but he uses video to explain how or why something caught his attention.
  
  
• REST OF SEASON RANKINGS - Bob Henry and Justin Freeman do a great job of updating this spreadsheet to factor in recent success that updates the rest-of-season rankings. This can be helpful when evaluating trade offers or if you're on the fence about a player to pick up or drop. This is also available for IDP REST OF SEASON projections thanks to Matt Montgomery
  
  
• MONDAY INJURY ROUNDS and *SUNDAY INJURY EXPECTATIONS *avail Sun - by Dr. Jene Bramel. Jene is a medical doctor with a vast knowledge of sports injuries. He provides updates on player injuries three times a week - Monday, midweek, and Gameday. It's a must-read if you're on the fence about the status of players on your team.

4. TARGET PRE-EMPTIVE WAIVER PICKUPS

What is a pre-emptive waiver pick-up? Targeting a player on waivers where you don't have to spend much, if any, of your free agent budget. This generally occurs after waivers have gone through for the week. In some cases, if a player is highly coveted, you can target them using your free agent budget so you ensure you claim them.

These players are usually non-starters who could benefit in the coming weeks due to a matchup, impending coaching decision, increase in usage, or a general hunch that they will rise to fantasy relevance. Usually, these pickups are planned for future use as players that you can stash and wait for them to blossom into fantasy starters. Larger leagues or leagues with high roster spots are best for stashing players. Winning on a pre-emptive waiver claim makes the return on your investment a much sweeter experience because it was you who decided to roll the dice on a player that turned into a gem. Examples of gems from this season include Jeff Wilson, Geno Smith, Khalil Herbert, Curtis Samuel, Josh Reynolds, among others.

PRE-EMPTIVE WAIVER CLAIM TARGETS (DEEPER LEAGUES)

1. Damien Williams, ATL - Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) will be on IR for another three weeks-plus, and Damien Williams will be eligible to come off that list in Week 6. He was the back behind Patterson to begin the season. He may get a chance to make an impact.
2. WanDale Robinson, NYG - Kadarius Toney is dealing with a hamstring re-injury and is taking longer to get healthy than expected. Could Robinson come in and be a spark in a Giants offense that has injuries in the wide receiver room? Maybe
3. Khalil Shakir, BUF - We've seen Shakir make some noise in a spot start in Week 5 while Isaiah McKenzie recovers from a concussion. He might be good enough to earn more snaps even when McKenzie is healthy.
4. Pierre Strong, NE - Damien Harris will be out for multiple weeks with a hamstring strain. Rhamondre Stevenson will assume the lead role, but Pierre Strong may also see some snaps as he gets a bump up the depth chart.
5. Isaih Pacheco, KC - Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the lead back in Kansas City, but there is also room for Jerick McKinnon and Pacheco to see some action. Pacheco has looked good in his limited duty so far and could earn increased snaps as we get later in the season.
6. Tyler Boyd, CIN - Tee Higgins has a sprained ankle that is giving him more problems than expected. As a result, Boyd is seeing more snaps in his place.
7. Skyy Moore, KC - The Chiefs have a gem in the waiting in Moore. When will he see his breakout game? It's coming.
8. Teddy Bridgewater, MIA - Tua Tagovailoa is out indefinitely with a concussion, and it's unclear when he will be able to return. In the meantime, Bridgewater will lead the surprisingly effective Dolphins offense in the coming weeks, provided he can return from a concussion/elbow injury.
9. Jake Ferguson, DAL - Dalton Schultz re-injured his knee (PCL) and will probably miss another game or two. This opens the door for Jake Ferguson to see increased snaps.
10. John Bates, WAS - Logan Thomas has a calf strain and may not be fully healed. John Bates will see more snaps if Thomas can't go in Week 6.

Questions, comments, and suggestions are always welcome. Hit me up on Twitter.

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