With the season finally upon us, preparation is necessary for the fast movement in values that take place at the beginning of the season. This is a good time to think about how you might profit in trades if a player gets off to a hot start to the season.
Maximizing Your Pivots
When you are looking to sell high in a dynasty trade, aim for a more durable asset in return. You can learn this lesson from the preseason in advance of the regular season when quick starts to the season can cause trade costs to increase. Dameon Pierce is a great lens for evaluating whether a more durable asset was returned.
Pierce was a fourth-round pick in the NFL Draft to an open depth chart. In the month after the NFL Draft, Pierce had a median draft position of 2.06 at RB5 in Superflex rookie drafts.
Pierce has been a source of consistent buzz since then. This escalated when Pierce broke out in Preseason Week 1 before he was held out of the final two games with the starters. His cost escalated further when Marlon Mack was cut from the team.
In May Superflex startup drafts, Pierce was selected at 11.04 as RB33. In August drafts, Pierce has a 9.11 median draft position at RB29, with Pierce’s stock escalating to 8.05 and RB25 in the final two weeks of August.
Overall, the price jump is not huge, but the reaction has been big in dynasty marketplaces.
When making a pivot, there are two ways to profit: trading for picks or trading for an elite asset.
Trade for Picks
Recent trades returning a future first-round rookie pick for Pierce include:
- Dameon Pierce for 2023 1st
- Dameon Pierce for Laviska Shenault and 2023 1st
- Dameon Pierce for Kevin Harris and 2023 1st
These deals are great opportunities to profit. A future first-round pick in Superflex leagues produces a starter season about 60% of the time. On the flip side, the average fourth-round running back hits about 19% of the time. If you trade a fourth-round rookie for a future first-round rookie pick every time you get the opportunity, you will be way ahead over the long term. Shenault and Harris are throw-ins for these deals.
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