DraftKings GPP Domination Week 8

KNOW YOUR Opponents

If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.

Slate Overview- Low Scoring Slate

This is a slate in which understanding percent rostered is going to be critical as the DFS community is rallying behind certain games and teams while seemingly ignoring others. For instance, the Dolphins this week are getting all the buzz and their team total is 27.5, while the Cowboys and Raiders are mostly going overlooked outside of their two running backs. The decisions are the same as every week where you need to determine whether you are fading certain players or going with the chalk, but what is different this week is normally we will have a team or two that is close to 30 team point totals. Instead, we have a lot of people putting faith into offenses that are in the 25-27 range, while completely ignoring a team like Seattle at 24 points projected. So finding that team that is going to over perform on a lower scoring slate without the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens, Bengals, Packers, and Buccaneers is going to be even more critical than most weeks.

Stacks

Top Stack

Andy Dalton, Chris Olave, Davante Adams

The running backs are going to get most of the roster percentage in this game, but the passing games are sneaky in this one. The Raiders are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season, and to get Andy Dalton who is coming off of a 361-yard 4 touchdown performance has now been named the starting quarterback even with a healthy Jameis Winston. With no Jarvis Landry or Michael Thomas, the passing game will once again flow through Chris Olave.

On the other side of the ball, a lot of people are completely off of Davante Adams due to him missing practice due to illness this week. With no Marshon Lattimore for the Saints, they do not have anyone to defend the caliber of receiver that Adams brings in this game. The past four weeks, the Saints have allowed the following DraftKings points to these receivers DeAndre Hopkins (23.3), Ja’Marr Chase (35.2), Tyler Lockett (30.4), Justin Jefferson (34.0). This is not a defense that can stop the elite wide receivers, and if this game becomes a high scoring game, it will be because of Adams this week.

Under the Radar Stacks

Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, George Pickens

Most people are going to completely avoid this game when it comes to a game stack because of Pittsburgh’s low team total. George Pickens is projected to be sub-5% rostered, while A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts are likely going to be between 5-10% rostered. The Steelers threw the ball 52 times for 327 yards in a 38-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills a few weeks ago, so even if this game gets out of hand Kenny Pickett and the Steelers are going to continue to throw the ball to develop their rookie quarterback. Pickens is the guy that is cheap that if the Steelers are able to do anything offensively could be with the rookie pairing of Pickett and Pickens.

The Steelers are the most overrated defense in the NFL this season. Most people think of Pittsburgh and immediately think that their defense is always decent. This year, they’re allowing the 6^th most passing yards, and struggled against the run against mobile quarterbacks allowing 40 yards or more to Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. This is a situation where the Eagles are coming off of a bye, Jalen Hurts has run for touchdowns on the season, and has thrown for 300+ yards in two games of the year.

Fade Stacks

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill

Look, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill going up against the Detroit Lions are going to draw significant attention for a number of reasons. The Lions are allowing the most yardage per game and are allowing 32.3 points per game with the next closest team allowing 28.6 points per game. So, why are we recommending fading this stack? It really can be broken down into three reasons, the roster percentages are out of control, Detroit’s run defense is far worse than their pass defense, and Detroit’s offense is pathetic which limits the opportunities for continued passing offense.

Tua Tagovailoa is currently projected to be 24% rostered on DraftKings, while Tyreek Hill is likely to go off somewhere in the 15% range. As bad as Detroit’s defense has been, a significant portion of this has been on the ground as their pass defense has been decent this year particularly against top wide receivers. Justin Jefferson had just 3 receptions for 14 yards back in Week 3 as Jeff Okudah completely shut him down. CeeDee Lamb last week had 4 receptions for 70 yards, which is a fine performance, but not something that is noteworthy when it comes to GPP wins. Only two wide receivers have topped 25 points against Detroit, while no wide receiver has topped 30 which at $8,500 is really what you’re going to be looking for from Tyreek this week.

The biggest concern of this game is not necessarily the Miami offense, as they’re going to put up points, but instead it is the offense on the other side of the ball. Detroit has scored a total of just 6 points in their last two games, which has led to low output performances from both Dak Prescott and Bailey Zappe neither of which topped 15 DraftKings points last week.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position.

QUARTERBACK

High-End Play

None-

On a slate where there is no Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady, the amount of options on the top-end are fairly minimal. This is a week where you probably either stack one of the top options in a complete game stack, or you pay down to the 5-6k range or all the way down to Sam Ehlinger. Paying $7,500 on this slate for a player like Kyler Murray just does not make a lot of sense unless it is a complete stack of that game given his volatile nature.

Value Plays

Geno Smith- $5,800- 3%

It is amazing that we are already into Week 8, and people are refusing to believe in Geno Smith. Smith is 8^th on the season in terms of DraftKings points scored ahead of players such as Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins with the latter two projected to have a higher roster percentage this week. The Giants passing defense has not really been tested this season as they’ve faced Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, and Trevor Lawrence. Smith has a higher passing yards per game than all of those quarterbacks so far this season and with the Seahawks projected to score 24 points in this game, Smith is going to need to be a factor this week. The Giants have struggled against mobile quarterbacks allowing 77 yards to Lamar Jackson and 45 yards to Justin Fields, and while Geno does not run as much as those quarterbacks, he is still more than capable of running when needed and maybe forced to take off and run with no DK Metcalf this week.

Sam Ehlinger- $4,000- 10%

Sam Ehlinger at 10% rostered for some people is going to be too high, which is understandable given that he is a 5^th-round second-year quarterback making his first ever start in the NFL. Yes, the bust potential is certainly there, but this is a different scenario than say Malik Willis at $5,000, because Ehlinger was named as the starting quarterback which should meant that the coaching staff has the confidence in him to lead this team to a playoff chase and not lose the locker room by benching Matt Ryan. This is a different situation than a team forced into starting a player who is not yet ready to start and treat him as a game manager which there is non-zero chance happens with Willis as they could just rely on Derrick Henry to win their game this week.

Running Back

High-End Play-

Saquon Barkley- $8,100- 6.7%

Saquon Barkley is a player that needs to be considered at $8,100 on a slate where there is a viable minimum priced quarterback. Barkley has been the backbone of this Giants offense as he has topped 100-yards in five of his seven games this season and is second amongst all running backs for DraftKings scoring behind Austin Ekeler who is not on this slate. Seattle’s run defense has struggled since the loss of Jamal Adams earlier this season as they are allowing 28.8 DraftKings points to the running back position which is the fourth highest in the NFL. The Seahawks have allowed every running back they’ve faced to top 100 rushing+receiving yards except for Eno Benjamin in his first start with James Conner being out.

Josh Jacobs- $7,500- 17.5%

Josh Jacobs volume is something that has emerged as on the level of Derrick Henry. Over the last three games, Jacobs has 28 touches per game and is now facing a New Orleans run defense that while by no means is bad, is not the dominant defense that it was for the last several seasons. The Saints allowed 88 yards on just 8 carries to Ken Walker, and last week allowed Eno Benjamin to top 100 total yards. With Davante Adams dealing with an illness and Darren Waller questionable with a hamstring injury, Jacobs should once again see a significant amount of volume this week.

Value Plays

Dameon Pierce-$6,300 16.5%

Dameon Pierce is going to be highly rostered, but for really good reason. What he is doing is simply a mis-price from DraftKings, as he likely should be closer to the $7k price range given the cliff that seemingly falls off at $6k for the running back position. Pierce has topped 90 rushing yards in each of his last three games, and even more importantly is finding tremendous value as a receiver as he has caught 13 passes over his last three games. The matchup is somewhat of a difficult one as he’s facing a Titans defense that has only allowed one running back to top 70 rushing yards, but where they have struggled is against running backs who can catch the ball as evidenced by allowing 12 receptions to the Colts combination of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines last week.

Tony Pollard- $6,100 34%

This is seemingly a mis-price of Tony Pollard with the injury to Ezekiel Elliott who is doubtful this week. Pollard in a favorable matchup against the Bears in a game in which the Cowboys are significant favorites should bode well for Pollard this week. The question you’ll have to ask yourself is whether you fade Pollard or try to differentiate yourself elsewhere. There is very little value at the running back position this week, so taking the chalk in Pollard could be something that is intriguing particularly with how the chalk has performed throughout this season. Pollard is a dynamic runner averaging 5.6 yards-per-carry and if he gets the full workload of carries this week, he very easily could be looking at 20+ carries.

Fade

Ken Walker- $6,500 20.6%

Ken Walker screams as a fade play once again this week. Look, he paid off last week, so if you faded him, it was far from ideal, but the signs are there for him to not continue this pace. Walker is a player who in his two starts as the primary running back has caught a total of two passes on three total targets. Last week, he did not receive a single target out of the backfield. Relying on a 74-yard run to reach GPP value each week because you don’t accumulate the PPR points is not a way to win consistently. Anything can work in the short-term, but over the long-term unless he starts catching passes, he’s not going to be a guy that you’re going to be able to rely on him week in and week out.

Wide Receiver

High-End Plays-

DeAndre Hopkins- $7,400 10.2%

DeAndre Hopkins looked fantastic in his return last week as he and Kyler Murray immediately got back on track after Hopkins served his suspension for Performance Enhancing Drugs. Hopkins saw 14 targets in a Thursday Night win against the Saints. With Marquise Brown placed on Injured Reserve, Hopkins is going to need to continue to be the top target and it appears very likely that he is getting back to 2020 levels where Hopkins had 160 targets in 16 games for the Cardinals. This week, the Cardinals face the Vikings who were absolutely crushed in their last performance by Miami as they allowed Tyreek Hill to accumulate 177 yards while Jaylen Waddle had 129 yards against them.

Mid-Range

Jaylen Waddle- $6,700 12.1%

There is a significant buzz and excitement across the DFS industry for Tyreek Hill this week, but Jaylen Waddle is seemingly going under looked in this game. While 12% is still fairly significant roster percentage, at $6,700 Waddle realistically should be much higher. This is a player who in his four games with Tua Tagovailoa this season has topped 17 points in three of his four games with his former college teammate. Waddle has three games above 100-yards on the season, and with Jeff Okudah likely going to defend Tyreek Hill, Waddle should get the favorable matchup this week against Amani Oruwariye who has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football this season.

Value Plays

George Pickens- $4,700 2.7%

The Jaguars are going to have to move the ball to be 3 point favorites this week against the Giants. Christian Kirk is coming off of his worst two-game stretch as a Jaguar receiver as he was shut down against the Texans and Colts, but he’s simply paid too much money and he’s shown early on this season that he has big play upside as he topped 60 yards in each of his first four games. For the Jaguars to be competitive this season and get their season back on track after losing three in a row, Christian Kirk is going to have to step up. The Giants have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, however the one spot that they’ve been exposed is at the slot position as Randall Cobb, Darnell Mooney and CeeDee Lamb all topped 85 yards against the Giants out of the slot which is primarily where Kirk lines up.

Bottom of the Barrell-

We aren’t going to write this up, simply because these are dart plays. The reality is that sub-5k wide receivers are awful this week.

You can take a chance on the following players if you need to save salary

George Pickens
Garrett Wilson
Marquise Goodwin
Van Jefferson

Tight End

High-End Play

None-

Playing a high cost tight end this week seems to be the wrong move. Given the lack of cheap options, it just is a tough sell to

Value Plays

Dalton Schultz- $3,700 3.8%

At the tight end position, most weeks we look for upside at the cheapest price. Schultz benefited tremendously from the return of Dak Prescott as he immediately saw targets once again. In the two games with Dak Prescott he has 12 receptions on 14 targets while in the three games he’s played without Dak he had just 2 receptions on 8 targets. Schultz is cheaper than some of the more popular players this week such as Dallas Goedert and Tyler Higbee, but should have upside that is in line with both of those players.

Player Chart