If You're Drafting this Weekend

Photo: USA Today Sports

We will analyze the latest news, ADP movement, and context you need to prepare for your upcoming Underdog best ball drafts. The fire hose of training camp news has been turned on, and the key to putting together strong teams is sifting through the deluge of information to get to the nuggets that matter. We will focus this week on what to do with players who have seen big ADP moves and not a few players we should try to get ahead of the crowd before their ADP rises later this month.

Here are the topics we will discuss in-depth this week:

1. The one player you need to target
2. What to make of the ADP moves in Cleveland
3. Buying into the drumbeats on a third-year wide receiver
4. The backup RB who might not actually be a backup
5. Buying or Selling the biggest risers this week

The top target this weekend

In what was probably the boldest beat writer commentary this preseason, Tom Curran said Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne is “going to be Deebo Samuel.” Surprisingly, the comment has flown way under the radar of fantasy Twitter and has been ignored or dismissed outright by the fantasy community.

"Congratulations to him, Tom Curran says he's going to be Deebo Samuel, one of the best receivers in football. I'm not there yet!"

We'll file this one away for January, @PhilAPerry...

Our own @tomecurran predicts Kendrick Bourne will have a 'Deebo Samuel year' 🤯#ForeverNE pic.twitter.com/6sDNTIzjVz

— NBC Sports Boston's Patriots Coverage (@NBCSPatriots) July 30, 2022

Bourne has seen his fantasy stock drop since Curran’s comments were made. His current ADP is 191 (up from 184 last week). Even if we mostly write off Curran’s comments as hyperbole, the fact that someone who watches the Patriots every day believes this is a possibility means we should start thinking of Bourne’s range of outcomes differently. There is more upside here than his ADP would indicate.

Plus, there were already some strong indications that Bourne carries serious breakout potential. Let’s start with his per-target production. Bourne was second in the NFL amongst all wideouts, catching 82.7% of his targets.

Wide Receivers with the highest catch rates last season

🥇 Rondale Moore: 84.3%
🥈 Kendrick Bourne: 82.7%
🥉 Hunter Renfrow: 82.2% pic.twitter.com/o6E2dWYGtV

— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) July 29, 2022

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Bourne was a big-play threat, unlike the other two players on this list. He averaged 14.5 yards per reception compared to just 8.1 for Moore and 10.1 for Renfrow.

Bourne also found himself on some small lists last season that included Samuel, which lends credence to Curran’s prediction. First, Bourne and Samuel were the only wide receivers in the NFL with more than 10 carries and over 100 rushing yards.

Second, Bourne ranked second in the NFL in yards per target last season and ranked among some impressive company.

All signs point towards a talented player who has earned more touches in 2022. With a top beat writer predicting that will be the case, Bourne stands out as a tremendous value at his current ADP.

If you are drafting this weekend, make Bourne a major priority in the late rounds. Draft him a couple of rounds ahead of his 16th-round ADP. This is exactly the type of guy we want to have as our WR6 or WR7.

Browns Rising

Every week, we track which teams generate the most excitement amongst drafters. Unsurprisingly, with the big Deshaun Watson news, the Cleveland Browns players cumulatively were the biggest risers.