Dak Prescott Can Be This Year's QB1

Photo: USA Today Sports

The Spotlight Series

A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.

Dak Prescott can finish the 2022 season as the overall QB1 but comes at a much cheaper cost. That’s a recipe for fantasy success. Consider:

• He’s already performed at that level
• 2021 was better than most remember
• The supporting cast has changed but remains compelling

He's Already Done It

Prescott has produced at an elite level for years. Let’s not forget that he was the clear-cut No. 1 fantasy quarterback in 2020 before suffering a season-ending injury.

His total passing numbers were unquestionably impressive when he suited up for 16 games in 2019 and 2021.

Aside from top-tier passing totals, Prescott is usually a threat on the ground, which is often the fantasy cheat code for quarterbacks. Last season was an anomaly considering he scored 24 rushing touchdowns from 2016 to 2020.

2021 Was Better Than We Remember

If those 2021 passing numbers surprised you, you're not alone. Prescott seemingly put together an up-and-down roller-coaster season, which ended with a disappointing playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers, putting a bad taste in our mouths. However, some context is needed. Prescott suffered a compound fracture and a dislocated right ankle in 2020. Before he could even begin his comeback campaign, he dealt with a unique shoulder injury before week 1 of the 2021 season. Then, during the season, Prescott played through a calf injury that hindered him for weeks. Despite the litany of injuries, he finished as the No. 6 quarterback in total fantasy points and on a per-game basis.

2021 Passing Metrics and Ranks

Prescott ranked top ten in the league in all of these important categories as a pure passer, highlighting how accurate, aggressive, and productive he was.

• Accuracy is reflected by the completion percentage and completion percentage over expected metrics
• Aggressiveness considers the yards per attempt
• Productivity is measured by touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing touchdowns per game, and expected points added per play

Solid Offensive Cast

Prescott is primed to once again produce a solid season for a Cowboys offense that ranked sixth in overall DVOA and sixth in pass DVOA in 2021. The division is favorable, with all three opponents finishing in the bottom half of the league in overall defensive DVOA. The Giants ranked 18th, the Eagles ranked 25th, and the Commanders ranked 27th. While the offseason losses of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson are not ideal, Dallas still has plenty of firepower. CeeDee Lamb profiles as an alpha wide receiver, and Dalton Schultz is a highly reliable tight end, proving his worth last season by catching 78 passes for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. Michael Gallup is a playmaker on the outside who is recovering from a torn ACL but is on track for an early-season return. James Washington (free agency) and Jalen Tolbert (third-round draft pick) are potential assets as outside, vertical threats. And, of course, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard form one of the best running back duos in the league, especially since both are talented pass catchers.

Where should you draft Prescott in season-long leagues?

Underdog Fantasy provides some of the most reliable ADP during the summer months, and Prescott is currently being drafted as the tenth quarterback (QB10). That's a fantastic price for a proven player of Prescott's caliber and makes him a critical target for those who choose to wait on quarterback on draft day.

Stats and Projections