Cooper Kupp is Ready for His Encore

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The Spotlight Series

A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.

Cooper Kupp is Ready for His Encore

Cooper Kupp blew away even the most optimistic expectations last year, en route to one of the best seasons by a receiver in NFL history. Everything clicked for him as the Rams upgraded at quarterback to Matthew Stafford, and they built an instant, pitch-perfect chemistry. Kupp’s season was so dominant that he enters atop the receiver rankings this year and is a consensus first-round pick across the industry. If you’re looking for a reason to avoid Kupp at his cost, you’re going about things the wrong way. Yes, he’s very likely going to regress in 2022. But most players regress after elite seasons, and Kupp’s 2021 was so dominant that even significant regression still positions him as the safest player at his position.

A Historic Season

Kupp’s season was one for the ages. We have to stop short of calling it a record-breaking season because the Rams star fell just short of a few all-time marks. But the totality of his production is easily among the very best in NFL history.

• Receptions – 145 (2nd all-time, behind Michael Thomas’ 149)
• Receiving Yards – 1,947 yards (2nd all-time, behind Calvin Johnson’s 1,964)
• Receiving Touchdowns – 16
• 100-Yard Games – 11 (Tied, 1st all-time)

He was named AP Offensive Player of the Year, joining only Jerry Rice and Michael Thomas as receivers to earn the honor. He also led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns last season. That feat –the Triple Crown – has only been achieved by four receivers since 1970.

TABLE: NFL Triple Crown Receiving Winners (1970-2021)

A Record-Breaking Fantasy Season

While Kupp’s heroics fell just short of all-time NFL single-season records, he did set a new mark in the annals of fantasy football history. Kupp’s 2021 ranks as the best fantasy season in league history, whether you’re using traditional scoring or rewarding points per reception (PPR).

TABLE: Top 25 Fantasy WR Seasons (PPR), All Time

Yeah, But He Did It In 17 Games

To Kupp’s credit, he was happy he didn’t break the single-season yardage or reception records because playing 17 games is comparing apples and oranges.

"We're in the longest football season ever played," Kupp said. "What the guys did that set those records - Mike Thomas, Randy Moss with the touchdowns, what Calvin Johnson did with yards - what those guys did in 16 games, it wouldn't seem right for those to be broken in 17 games. It wouldn't hold the same weight to me as it does for guys who did that in 16-game seasons."

The 17 games shouldn’t be held against him from a fantasy perspective. He averaged an astounding 25.735 fantasy points (PPR) per game. That mark ranks third all-time, falling ever-so-slightly behind Davante Adams' 25.743 fantasy points per game in 2020 and Jerry Rice's magnificent 1987 season (26.3 points per game).

TABLE: Top 25 Fantasy WR Points per Game Seasons (PPR), All Time

We Know What He Did, But What Will He Do in 2022?

Let’s start with the obvious: Kupp will likely never match last year again. That’s not throwing shade. History tells us that all-time great seasons are outliers. But expecting some measure of regression is both evident and reductive. What fantasy managers need to know is:

A) What magnitude of regression should be expected?

B) How does that reshape Kupp’s value relative to other NFL receivers?

Predicting Regression – 20% is the Magic Number

To gauge what to expect after 2021’s dominance, let’s look at the 25 greatest fantasy seasons of the last 20 years and how they performed the following season.

TABLE: Top 25 Fantasy Seasons (2002-2021) and Year N+1 With Corresponding Fantasy Points per Game

Four of the 25 seasons happened last year, leaving us with 21 seasons to examine. On average, the best to ever do it saw a 20.8% reduction in their fantasy points per game in the following year.

• Two players managed to exceed their per-game value in Year N+1 (Calvin Johnson in 2013 and Antonio Brown in 2014)
• Two more saw their value decline less than 10% (Calvin Johnson in 2012 and Brandon Marshall in 2013)
• Ten saw their value decline by more than 10% but less than 20%
• Three players had declines greater than 20% but less than 40% (Marvin Harrison in 2003, Randy Moss in 2004, and Moss again in 2008)
• Four players suffered 40%+ declines (Michael Thomas in 2020, Brandon Marshall in 2016, Muhsin Muhammad in 2005, and DeAndre Hopkins in 2016)

Elite Relative Value, Even With Regression

If we take Kupp’s 437.5 fantasy points (PPR) last year and model different regression levels, we can see how he would rank against his peers.

TABLE: Scenario Analysis, Assuming Different Levels of Year-over-Year Regression for Cooper Kupp (2021 Baseline: 437.5 PPR Points)

• If Kupp declines 10%, he’s still almost assuredly the WR1
• A 20% decline means Kupp is a coin toss to finish either No. 1 or No. 2
• If he regresses by 30%, Kupp still projects as a top-5 receiver
• If he fell back to the average performance of the all-time Top 25 in Year N+1, he would still be the 8th or 9th best receiver in most years

Barring Injury, Kupp’s Circumstances Remain Advantageous

Stability is an elite player’s best friend. Fortunately, Kupp’s situation remains ideal.

• Same play-caller (Sean McVay)
• Same quarterback (Matthew Stafford)
• Same role (the clear No. 1)
• Talented No. 2 and No. 3 receivers to keep defenses honest
• Solid offensive line

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Fantasy managers tend to overthink situations. While no player is guaranteed to remain atop the fantasy rankings in consecutive years, no wide receiver has a stronger case to finish No. 1 over Cooper Kupp. Yes, last year was almost assuredly a record season never to be matched. But who cares? The same can be said for nearly every high-end fantasy season. The great news is that Kupp is healthy, armed with a new contract, in his prime, and returns all the key pieces to last year’s smashing success. And historically speaking, the best fantasy seasons bring approximately 20% regression in Year N+1. Kupp would still be the league’s No. 1 fantasy receiver if he delivers 80% of last year. Barring injury, Kupp has the highest floor and highest ceiling at the position. That begs for an early first-round selection in any league.