Can Saquon Barkley Be a League-Winner?

Saquon Barkley seems like the forgotten running back of the NFL. He rushed for over 1,300 yards as a rookie and finished as RB3 overall in PPR formats. He finished that season with 361.6 fantasy points per game and averaged 24.1 points per game in PPR formats. The following season he would suffer a high ankle sprain but was still able to eclipse 1,000 yards and finish as a low-end RB1. The last three games of that year showed off his generational talent. Christian McCaffrey was on his way to putting up historical fantasy numbers, but a healthy Barkley outscored him in all three of those games. Albeit by a slim margin, it does show Barkley’s talent when healthy. Unfortunately, his injury trend popped up again in 2020, with him tearing his ACL in week two and missing the entire season. He returned in 2021 but struggled to return to form on the field missing another four games with an ankle injury. He would finish as RB32 in PPR formats and be unstartable down the season's stretch. The biggest question this offseason is whether to take the risk and draft Barkley or not? He is currently being drafted in the third round as RB14, according to Footballguys ADP.

Based on his current ADP and value in redraft leagues, you should be targeting him as your RB2. When healthy, few running backs are better. He will be a key piece to many fantasy championships this year.

Here’s why:

• He’s a generational talent who’s finally healthy
• The New York Giants improved their offensive scheme and line
• He will finish higher than his current ADP

He’s a Generational Talent Who’s Finally Healthy

In college, Barkley rushed for 3,843 rushing yards and scored 43 touchdowns on 671 carries. He also caught 102 passes for 1,195 yards and eight touchdowns and added 18 kickoff returns for 500 yards and two touchdowns. He was an exceptional talent, and as a prospect, scouts fell in love with his positional versatility. Barkley could run inside and out with tremendous speed, lateral agility, and acceleration. He was also used all over the field at Penn State, including as a receiver. They lined him in the slot and took advantage of the mismatches. He also was Top 5 in the country in breakaway percentages and showed the ability to be a big play-threat all over the field. When trying to project players coming off injuries, the first criterion has to be their athletic profile. Generational athletes bounce back quicker than other players, and he fits that criteria. One way to compare athletic profiles is by using their relative athletic scores (RAS, for short). RAS is a way of measuring a player’s athletic testing to their size as well as historically. Each prospect is given a score from 0 to 10 based on how their RAS matches up to those of the same position throughout history. A perfect 10 is the top of the group and the best athlete to work out at that position, while a 0 would be the worst. Here is how Barkley and Adrian Peterson compare.

Based on their respective RAS scores, Barkley tested as the better athlete coming out of college. This is important to note, considering Peterson also tore his ACL in his career. Peterson tore it at the end of his fifth season, winning the MVP the following season. He rushed for 2,097 yards and twelve touchdowns in 2012. He would follow that up with another 1,000-yard season in 2013. Peterson is the standard when looking at running backs after ACL injuries and their recovery.

In contrast, Barkley had a tough year in 2021 due to a poor offensive scheme and poor quarterback play. He’s just as good, if not a better, athlete than Adrian Peterson. That should make fantasy managers more excited about his return to form. He's coming into 2022 healthy.

Before we dive into his health, we should understand that there is no such thing as injury prone. Zach Binney from Football Outsiders breaks down the notion here, but essentially, according to the numbers, every player has at least a 50/50 chance of playing every game in a season. No analytical research will say that Barkley is injury-prone; he’s just suffered injuries throughout his career. Many could say freak injuries. Fading him based on injury concerns is a flawed process for a manager. Three other running backs have torn their ACL and have had a RAS score of over 9.0. Those three running backs are Edgerrin James, Adrian Peterson, and Ronnie Brown. Adrian Peterson and Edgerrin James bounced back from their injury and had very productive seasons following the injury. Peterson had a 2,000-yard season the first year back and another 1,200-yard season the second year removed from the injury. Edgerrin James would go on to have four 1,000-yard seasons after his second year removed from his ACL tear. Ronnie Brown is the only player to struggle after his ACL tear, but that can be attributed to his schemes and split role in the Miami backfield with Ricky Williams. While three players is a small sample size, the reality is players with their type of athleticism are exceedingly rare. When looking at Barkley’s outlook for 2022, there will be no split role, and history tells us running backs with his RAS score bounce back after the second year removed from an ACL injury. There is a risk that he is a boom or bust play, but his generational athleticism should have you betting on more boom than bust.

The Giants Improved their Offensive Scheme and Offensive Line

He is finally playing behind a better offensive line and in a better offensive scheme. This offseason, Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was hired as the Giants' new head coach. The Bills offense reached new heights under Daboll. In 2019, the Bills' offense scored 314 points and ranked third. The following year, it all came together for Daboll’s scheme; the Bills offense put up 501 points, good for second in the league. In 2021, they scored 483, putting them in third overall. Here’s how they finished in total rushing yards in those three seasons, along with their top three leading rushers:

• 2019 – 10th in rushing yards (2,054)
  • Devin Singletary: 151-775-2
  • Frank Gore: 166-599-2
  • Josh Allen: 109-510-9
• 2020 – 20th in rushing yards (1,723)
  • Devin Singletary: 156-687-2
  • Zack Moss: 112-481-4
  • Josh Allen: 102-421-8

• 2021 – 6th in rushing yards (2,209)
  • Devin Singletary: 188-870-7
  • Josh Allen: 122-763-6
  • Zack Moss: 96-345-4

Another promising sign was as the 2021 season progressed, Daboll emphasized a more balanced approach. Devin Singletary enjoyed four straight top-10 fantasy finishes over the last four weeks of the 2021 season. That trend is a positive sign for the Giants' running back room. When projecting what the Giants' new scheme will look like, we must look at past precedent and listen to what Daboll has been saying this offseason. He has consistently mentioned molding his offense to fit the talent on the roster. Barkley will be the best running back Daboll has coached in his career, and we could see him give him the most volume in an offense that needs to find playmakers. Quarterback Daniel Jones has been inconsistent, and Daboll should use Barkley to take the pressure off him. The Giants' receiving room has some hidden gems, but they, too, have been inconsistent. Barkley is the most consistent player on the 2022 roster, and no one is competing with him for carries. Behind Barkley on the depth chart are Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell, and Jashaun Corbin. Not one of those players is close to Barkley’s talent. The volume will be there, and volume is critical in fantasy production.

There has also been talk out of Giants camp that they will use him more in the passing game. In his first two seasons in the NFL, he had a total of 194 targets, only to see that number decline dramatically in the past two seasons. Barkley could earn the most targets since his rookie season in this new scheme.

On top of the offensive system being tailored around him, the Giants have also improved their offensive line. The unit was one of the worst-rated units in football last season, finishing 30th overall according to Pro Football Focus’s end-of-the-season rankings. New general manager Joe Schoen has emphasized improving the unit this off-season. Here’s the projected starting five for the Giants:

Starters

• LT Andrew Thomas
• LG Shane Lemieux
• C Jon Feliciano
• RG Mark Glowinski
• RT Evan Neal [R]

Key Backups

• T Korey Cunningham, T Matt Peart, T Matt Gono, T Devery Hamilton, T Roy Mbaeteka
• G Joshua Ezeudu [R], G Jamil Douglas, G Max Garcia, G Marcus McKethan [R], G Wes Martin
• C Ben Bredeson, C Nick Gates

Andrew Thomas is the only returner from last season's team. The former top-five draft pick had his best statistical season in 2021 and is one of the best young tackles in the NFL. The Giants then added veteran center Jon Feliciano and right guard Mark Glowinski. Schoen also added two solid contributors in the draft with right tackle Evan Neal and guard Josh Exeudu. Ezeudu will compete with Shane Lemieux to play left guard this season. Neal was one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL draft, and he could blossom into one of the best tackles in the NFL. The influx of veteran pieces and rookie talent will take some time to gel, but this unit could be the most improved offensive line in the NFL in 2022.

He will finish higher than his current ADP

Fantasy drafts are all about value. We commonly hear, “Don't hate the player; hate the ADP.” In Barkley's case, you should love the player and the ADP. Just check out Footballguys running back ADP below:

Barkley is currently being drafted as RB14 and has an overall ADP that finds him drafted in the third round. All drafts will vary, but there have been instances where he is being valued even lower depending on the other managers in your league. He is now being drafted at his floor in fantasy leagues based on his overall finishes when healthy. That’s valuable for a player who could finish as a top-5 at his position. Realistically he is a perfect RB2 to draft on your team. He provides a safe floor but gives you one of the best ceilings for a player with his current ADP, as Joe Bryant points out with his value-based drafting principle. A player’s value is determined not by the number of points he scores but by how much he will outscore his peers at his position. Barkley is a perfect example of this in 2022. Our projections currently have him finishing as RB11 on the season, and that projection may not be his ceiling. In this new offensive scheme, there is a realistic scenario in which he sees seventy targets, pushing his ceiling even higher in 2022.

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Our job at Footballguys is to help you win your leagues. In 2022, a healthy Saquon Barkley will help you do just that. He’s entering the final year of his rookie deal and will be motivated to have his best season. He’s in the best shape of his life and playing in the best offensive system in his career. The Giants improved offensive line should help him improve his efficiency in 2022, and he has a chance to finish as a high-end RB1 while being valued as RB14. No other player in fantasy based on value gives you this type of upside at the running back position. Don’t overthink it; draft Barkley.

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