Allen Lazard's Path to a Breakout is Clear

Photo: USA Today Sports

In the wake of Davante Adams' departure, most fantasy football analysts shouted the same rhetoric regarding Allen Lazard. Something like, "Sell him now before the Packers bring in a free agent wide receiver or draft a rookie!" Although I fully expect the Packers to draft a wide receiver or two in the upcoming draft, I'm still holding firmly onto my Lazard shares. There's certainly the risk that he maintains his role as a 500-yard second option in Green Bay, but his ceiling is undeniable. For whatever reason, the market hasn't taken notice.

This article will lean heavily on narrative, situation, and history. Writing off Lazard's potential breakout is easy, but we're going to look past the numbers and predict how things might shake out in the post-Adams era for Green Bay. Lazard is currently valued outside of the top-70 wide receivers in dynasty, and I will be making a case for his ceiling here, not a formal projection.

There's no way Allen Lazard can break out...

First of all, let's address the negatives with Allen Lazard to help you understand why he's a consensus sell-high candidate. I'll give you the necessary information to formulate your own opinion. Lazard has been in the league for four years and just had his first 500-yard season. He's never seen more than 60 targets in a single year. His highest target share ever was in 2020, at a pretty disappointing 15.3 percent. He's missed games due to injury in three of his four seasons in the league. He was undrafted coming into the league.

His less-than-stellar career numbers make a compelling case to sell high after the Adams trade. However, following the numbers alone with Green Bay wide receivers would have likely burned you in the past. Davante Adams was, by all definitions, a "faceplanter" as a rookie. He mustered up a disappointing 446 yards despite high expectations as a second-round pick. He followed up that campaign with a paltry 483 yards as a sophomore. Jordy Nelson posted worse numbers in his first three years than Lazard has through his. Randall Cobb saw just 31 targets in his rookie season. All of these receivers plummeted in value before their respective breakouts.

Catching passes from a "complicated fella"

Aaron Rodgers is undeniably one of, if not the, best quarterback of all time. Based on what we've seen over the years, I think it's safe to say that he's a pretty unique individual. Green Bay's president, Mark Murphy, famously called him a "complicated fella" just last offseason. And those unique traits extend to more than just his off-the-field antics. When he's not making wild media appearances or sharing cryptic messages on social media, he's putting in work to develop strong relationships with his pass-catchers. He's got a pretty bizarre track record of grooming and developing his wide receiver corps over the course of years.

First, let's look at free agents. Or I guess what I should say is "lack of free agents." Since 2008, when Aaron Rodgers took over as the Packers starting quarterback, he has completed passes to only two players from other teams; Juwan Winfree and Tavon Austin. As a rookie in Denver, Winfree suited up for three games and only saw 14 total snaps. Tavon Austin was the only other free agent brought in by the Packers since 2008, and he saw five total targets in 2020 from Rodgers before moving on to Jacksonville.

Whether it be the front office or Rodgers making the choice, the team simply does not target free agent wide receivers. Last year, there were countless takes about how well JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, or Curtis Samuel would fit into the Packers' offense. Rather than bringing in a young and talented free agent, the team traded for a 30-year-old Randall Cobb. Analysts this offseason touted how well Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder, or D.J. Chark would be in Green Bay. The team expressed seemingly no interest in them. We can reasonably deduce from these peculiar moves that Rodgers values trust and chemistry with his pass-catchers above all else.

It's obvious how important trust is to Aaron Rodgers. We have seen him spitefully ignore Valdes-Scantling in games after a bad drop. The rumors about him wanting out of Green Bay started swirling because the team traded away Jake Kumerow. Kumerow had 32 targets in two seasons and never eclipsed 70 yards in a single game. But Rodgers was working hard with him in practice and during the offseason to build that trust and chemistry. Losing a third-year bottom-of-the-barrel receiver was nearly enough for Rodgers to force himself off the team. Rodgers is almost loyal to a fault in regards to the guys he'll throw to.

When you think of Rodgers' favorite receivers over the years, these guys probably come to mind first: Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And wouldn't you know it, they were all drafted by the Packers.

Here are the top seasons posted by rookies wide receivers who played with Aaron Rodgers:

There is not a single fantasy-relevant season among that bunch. Future superstars like Adams, Nelson, and Cobb all had awful rookie seasons. No wide receiver in NFL history has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in their first three seasons with Aaron Rodgers.

The significant thing worth noting is that Rodgers has never had a first-round rookie receiver. Adams, Nelson, and Cobb held the highest draft capital and were all taken in the second round. Valdes-Scantling, who had the best rookie season with Rodgers, was a fifth-round pick. First-round rookies typically draw more usage, but it's tough to imagine any scenario where a rookie suddenly becomes Rodgers' main target, especially when it took years to increase the target share for all the talented players mentioned above.

Lazard only played in one game as a rookie, so it's easy to dismiss his rookie numbers. Looking at his first full season though (2019), he posted 52 targets, 35 receptions, 477 yards, and three touchdowns. Although nothing to write home about, that's an exceptional season by Rodgers' rookie standards.

Next, let's take a look at the WR1s over the years

When Rodgers took over in 2008, Greg Jennings was established as the team's WR1 from the Brett Favre years. From 2008 to 2010, Jennings averaged 8.0 targets and 76.5 yards as the team's primary receiver, consistently putting up elite fantasy seasons. When he started the 2012 season injured, he and Jordy Nelson alternated games as Rodgers' primary guy as we witnessed the first changing of the guard. When injuries started to pile up on Jennings, Nelson took officially over. From 2013 to 2016, Nelson averaged 9.0 targets and 85.2 yards per game. Just like Jennings before him, injuries started to take their toll, and Nelson and Adams each got a share of lead duties in 2017. In 2018, Nelson went to (ironically enough) the Raiders. Then, from 2018 to 2021, Adams turned into the alpha you know him as today. He averaged 7.8 targets and 93.2 yards per game over the last three seasons.

With Davante Adams now out of the picture, the job is up for grabs and Allen Lazard is the most-tenured guy on the team and likely heir to that desired role.

So what does all of this mean for Allen Lazard?

Like his predecessors before him, Lazard got off to a slow start to his career, averaging around 500 yards per season over his last three campaigns. We saw his usage start to ramp up in 2020 before a core muscle surgery derailed his season. He and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have taken turns as the team's second option, but when called up, Lazard was able to step up.

Over the last two seasons, we have only seen one week where Davante Adams missed, and both Lazard and Valdes-Scantling played. In that game:

Craziest yet, Lazard drew coverage from Pro-Bowler cornerback Marshon Lattimore in that game. That outing alone (Week 3, 2020) should rest any concerns that Lazard will struggle pulling coverage from the league's top cornerbacks. Check out this video of him torching Lattimore before laying out for an acrobatic catch in that matchup.

It's a shame that Allen Lazard won't produce when he draws coverage from top cornerbacks…

Just kidding! Here he is burning Marshon Lattimore.

Davante Adams was injured that game and Lazard went for 8 targets, 6 receptions, 146 yards, and a TD.pic.twitter.com/g3xai5Kh1t

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) March 22, 2022

When looking at the advanced metrics, there's even more to get excited about. Lazard has been a monster in efficiency over the last couple of seasons. Last year, he ranked sixth overall in fantasy points per target. Rodgers' QB rating when targeting Lazard was sixth-best in the NFL. When looking at combined points per target, average depth of target, and fantasy points per route run over the last two seasons, Lazard falls into an elite group with just Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, and Adam Thielen.

Now that his efficiency over the last few seasons is apparent, it's easy to see how increased usage can set Lazard up for monster fantasy productions. And I haven't even talked about his athletic profile yet! Lazard is 6'3”, has a size-adjusted speed score near the 90th percentile, possesses a monstrous catch radius, and is still just 26 years old. The only knock to his profile overall is lack of draft capital, but that shouldn't be a factor now that he's off his rookie deal.

When looking at player profile comparisons with height, weight, speed, 40-time, agility, and burst score, there are precisely four historical players that Allen Lazard compares to:

Miles Boykin and Jonathan Baldwin each faceplanted in their respective careers and never logged more than 325 yards in a single season. The other two comps? Vincent Jackson and Julio Jones. There aren't many guys who have the combination of size, speed, burst, and agility that Lazard possesses.

Back to the possible first-round rookies who the Packers can draft. I'm not overly concerned if the Packers select a rookie in the first round because of Rodgers' history of usage with them. Granted, he's never had a rookie with the profile of Treylon Burks, Drake London, or Chris Olave. But we'd have to project a wildly different standard than what Rodgers has shown us over the last 14 years to expect a rookie to step into a consequential role.

Let's assume the absolute worst-case scenarios for Lazard this offseason:

• The Packers were to select two (not one, but two) first-round round rookies, and Rodgers peppers each of them with more targets than he's ever thrown to a rookie before.
• Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan Jr, and A.J. Dillon see career-high target totals
• Randall Cobb sees a bump in usage from last year
• The Packers pass less, attempting just 500 passes

Despite all of these negative inputs, there is still a path for Allen Lazard to see at least 100 targets this season.

I've been a big fan of Allen Lazard since he came into the league.

I know that we've been waiting on Green Bay to develop at WR2 for years now and it has yet to happen, but I have a gut feeling that Allen Lazard steps up this year.

I just realized that I have him 23 spots ahead of the consensus and I'm ok with that.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 9, 2021

Despite ranking him as my WR51 last year (23 spots ahead of his consensus ranking), I still came up short of his end-of-season finish of WR47. He'd have likely surpassed that last year but missed three games to injury. With Adams out of the picture, I'll confidently have Lazard ranked inside my top-36, regardless of the team's next offseason moves.

From a dynasty standpoint, Lazard is essentially free. KeepTradeCut.com crowd-sources their rankings and currently has Lazard ranked as the WR79. Seeing the dynasty community prefer Cedrick Wilson, Terrace Marshall, Josh Palmer, and Tim Patrick ahead of him is mind-boggling. I'd give up an early second-round pick for Lazard without thinking twice. But the good news is that you probably don't have to! He's getting valued as a third-round rookie pick right now. He's also an easy throw-in asset to add to trades.

When analyzing Allen Lazard, we're looking at is a guy with a highly unique profile of size, speed, and athleticism who has been insanely efficient over the last two seasons. His primary competition for targets is out of the picture. He's got the trust of one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. Is it possible that he maintains his role as second fiddle in Green Bay? Absolutely. And that is baked into his cheap cost. But there is a considerable ceiling here that people are ignoring. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Lazard is next in line for the coveted role as Aaron Rodgers' WR1, which has consistently put up huge numbers in fantasy football.

To sum it all up: He's big. He's strong. He's fast. Aaron Rodgers trusts him. That path to a breakout is there. There's little risk in acquiring him, and the reward could be huge. Take the leap of faith in Allen Lazard's potential ascension to stardom as the Packers' new WR1.

If you liked this, check out the video I just uploaded to our YouTube channel about Allen Lazard. I highlight most of the points in this article along with a few other nuggets.

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