Links to other positions in this series:
It’s hard to believe the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, a lot can change from our original expectations.
Quarterbacks Who Changed My Mind
Lamar Jackson (BAL) is back in business
Last year’s Ravens offense shook me, and I was far below consensus on Jackson earlier in the summer. He lost his best receiver in Marquise Brown, was unhappy with his contract, and looked absolutely lost a year ago when the team opened up the passing attack. But then cooler heads prevailed. Jackson is healthy, seems in good spirits about his contract negotiations, and it’s become apparent the Ravens are going to get back to the 2019-2020 plan of leading the league in rushing attempts. Jackson’s legs give him a top-10 floor, and if he can be closer to the 30 touchdown threshold than the 20 touchdowns, he’ll be back as one of the best at the position.
Matthew Stafford (LAR) worries me a little
Credit to my colleagues Matt Waldman and Sigmund Bloom, who turned me onto Matthew Stafford’s elbow issues a few months ago. I initially discounted the worry, but as someone who’s spent years playing fantasy baseball, too, I believe that elbow issues rarely get better without surgery. It seems like the Rams have a plan to minimize the risk, and I’m not totally off drafting Stafford or the Rams receivers. But when push comes to shove, I’ve been passing on Stafford for other signal callers in his tier.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) makes the cut
In traditional (start 1 QB) leagues, I always have a cutoff of quarterbacks I want to come away with, which usually runs 14 or 15 deep. My initial projections had Tagovailoa below the threshold, but I’ve warmed to him in recent months. He’s healthy, has a positive attitude, and had a strong camp. I’m not ready to anoint him as a must-start passer, but I would now be comfortable taking him as my Week 1 starter if I prioritize other positions early.
Mac Jones (NE) doesn’t
Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in history. But he has a losing record without Tom Brady, while Brady has continued putting up elite numbers and winning Super Bowls without his old coach. With Josh McDaniels leaving for Las Vegas, I fear Belichick is being too cute by half by installing former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as the new de facto play-caller. Good luck with that. I don’t see how Jones puts up numbers that work in 12-team leagues.
Neither does Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
If you normalize Ryan Tannehill’s rushing touchdowns, you’re left with a game manager dealing with a weaker supporting cast and a play-caller with a lot left to prove. I don’t think Tannehill will be a disaster, but I worry his passing output will be too erratic to matter in 12-team leagues.
Matt Ryan (IND) could be this year’s Matthew Stafford
Remember a year ago when everyone questioned whether Stafford – who couldn’t win a playoff game in Detroit – would really change the trajectory of the Rams offense? We all know how silly that seems now. Stafford is world’s better than Jared Goff, and swapping those two turned the Rams from a very good team to the league’s best. Is the difference between Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz all that different from Stafford and Goff? I don’t think so. Ryan steps into a ready-made contender and could throw for 40 touchdowns.
Geno Smith (SEA) will be the starter
Drew Lock imploded, and Jimmy Garoppolo re-signed with the 49ers. That closed the door on any hope Geno Smith would return to the bench. While Smith “earned” the job by not being a disaster during camp, it’s still a disappointing outcome for the Seahawks' passing attack.
Deshaun Watson (CLE) is undraftable in most leagues
If you’ve got 24+ roster spots, Watson is worth targeting because he could be at his best late in the season when you’re trying to win the fantasy playoffs. But in most leagues, Watson cannot be drafted and stashed. 11 games missed are too demanding of a price to pay.