Assuming a player's regular season trajectory based on one preseason game is tricky. It's a minuscule sample size that barely represents the entire picture. But fantasy football is a game that takes place over the course of 18 weeks. Everything is a small sample size. A fantasy team’s manager is responsible for moving and evolving with each data point. Does one overreact, react normally, or underreact? Helping you respond accordingly is what this article is intended to do. Here are this week's preseason risers.
WR Christian Kirk, Jacksonville
Christian Kirk is the presumed WR1 on the Jacksonville Jaguars going into the 2022 regular season. His hefty contract indicated that he was a priority for a team undergoing an offensive overhaul. Doug Pederson is now the head coach of the Jaguars, but served as the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles for five years. He never produced a WR1 during his entire tenure there. However, a significant development occurred during the Jaguars' preseason game last week. Kirk was targeted on a ludicrous 36.3 percent of his routes run. For reference, during the regular season, elite wide receivers are targeted on 24 to 30 percent of their routes run. So regression is expected. The last time Pederson had a wide receiver corps comparable to his current corps was in 2017. The WR1 that year was targeted on 21 percent of his routes run.
Additionally, Pederson's offense favors the tight ends. Tight ends during Pederson's tenure either ranked first or second in the league at the position. This is an Evan Engram nod. Regardless, last week’s showing should be a significant nod to Kirk's established role as the WR1 in the Jaguars' offense. Kirk is currently wide receiver 41 in redraft leagues with an ADP of 93. That is an outstanding value. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' offense is on the rebound. Lock him into your drafts as a priority pick in the later rounds when searching for wide receiver depth.
RB Dameon Pierce, Houston
Well, that didn't take long. After only one preseason game, Dameon Pierce has secured the RB1 spot on the Houston Texans. Pierce is still an incredible value going into the eleventh round of drafts. However, that is sure to rise as the preseason unfolds. Regarding Pierce's 2022 utilization, during Lovie Smith's tenure as a head coach with the Chicago Bears from 2004 to 2012 and The Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2014 to 2015, starting running backs were accustomed to seeing over 220 carries per season. Additionally, Matt Forte averaged 70.6 targets per year under Smith. Even if Pierce's ADP rises to the fifth round, he should be considered safe to draft. Feel free to go ahead and pull the trigger on Pierce as a rock-solid RB2 for 2022.
RB Rashaad Penny, Seattle
Unfortunately, rookie running back Kenneth Walker had to go under the knife for a hernia procedure and his timetable for return is projected to be sometime during the beginning of the season. The Seattle Seahawks’ Head Coach is as vague about the situation as he usually does. Walker was selected at the top of the second round in the 2022 NFL Draft to bolster the Seattle Seahawks’ run game while concealing the inefficiencies of their passing game. Walker’s absence will relegate the majority of touches to Rashaad Penny for the foreseeable future.
Penny has had more than his fair share of injury concerns. However, he broke out towards the end of the 2021 season, and the fantasy world was able to finally revel in the upside that he promised to bring for so many years. During his infamous breakout stretch from Weeks 14 through 18, Penny averaged 22 fantasy points per game. Given the significant inefficiencies of the offense, Penny's average weekly output should be scaled back.
Penny is currently being drafted in the back of the eighth round. Consider him a target for teams that have punted on drafting their RB2 in favor of other positions in earlier rounds.
WR Gabriel Davis, Buffalo
Just when the Gabriel Davis fanaticism could not pick up any more steam, he went and scored a touchdown in the Buffalo Bills' last preseason game and raised the hype to a fever pitch. People are either on the Davis hype train or throwing rocks at it as it drives by. Either way, every indication has pointed towards a Davis breakout. From the lack of significant wide receiver additions in the offseason to training camp reports, it's hard to deny Davis' success.
Five of seven Footballguys analysts have Davis reaching over 1000 receiving yards, and all of them have him with at least seven receiving touchdowns. Given the Bills' vacated targets, these projections should be considered more than attainable for Davis in 2020.
Davis should be considered a WR2 in 2022. His ADP is just right in the sixth round.
WR Justin Watson, Kansas City
Every offseason, there are those players that slip entirely under the radar. While everybody is staring at the Dameon Pierce's and George Pickens' of the offseason, a couple of players surface seemingly out of nowhere. Justin Watson is a candidate to be one of those players in 2022.
Watson is an upper percentile athlete on a team with perhaps the greatest quarterback of this generation. This preseason, Watson has averaged 70 percent of his snaps from the slot and 30 percent from out wide. While he is likely to make the team, Watson is only projected to start the year as the WR4/5. However, his snap alignments indicate that he is the primary backup to Mecole Hardman. Hardman is currently on the mend from a groin injury, and Watson has been lights out in Hardman's absence during the first two preseason games.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hardman both held out due to injury in Week 2 of the preseason, Watson was bumped up to playing with the first team offense. He caught two passes from Mahomes for 53 yards.
Reports have been positive out of training camp regarding Watson. He is a deeper player to keep on your radar, but justifies it by the team that he plays for and his pure athleticism. Should Hardman suffer an injury, expect Watson to fill in and produce as a WR3 with boom weeks on an elite offense.