Three Up
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Although there's been speculation that Baker Mayfield was no more than a one-season Band-Aid for the Bucs, he may have done enough this year to solidify his role as their starter. An exciting start to his career quickly cooled off, and his stats dipped across the board every year after. But this year, in Tampa Bay, Mayfield has recaptured the magic. His 236.8 passing yards per game are the most since 2019, his second year in the league. His touchdown rate is the highest since his rookie season. He's completing pass attempts at a 63.5% clip, the best rate since his rookie season. And he's getting hot at the right time to help the Bucs make an offseason decision. He's won three straight games, two against division opponents. And in Week 15, he beat the Green Bay Packers while posting a perfect passer rating and a season-high four touchdowns. As for fantasy, Mayfield has moved up to the season's QB12. He's eclipsed 20 points in three of his last four games. Next week, he gets Jacksonville, allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. You can count on him for another QB1 start in that matchup.
WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
A six-game lull for Cooper Kupp is sandwiched between two separate back-to-back outings with 100-plus yards. It's tough to get a read on his season, but Kupp appears to be back to his old self despite a mid-season scare. He's scored touchdowns in three straight games. In Week 15, he caught all eight of his targets for 111 yards. The emergence of Puka Nacua was cause for concern. A strong run game anchored by Kyren Williams made some think the Rams would run more. But even the recent and surprising usage of Demarcus Robinson can't slow Kupp down. He'll have two tough matchups against the Saints and Giants to close the season, but Kupp has found himself back in must-start territory.
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
This is the second time Trey McBride has graced the "Three Up" section of this year's column. Early in the season, the peripheral metrics told us he was a very player and would explode with a more significant workload. And he has turned those exciting usage metrics into elite production in the wake of Zach Ertz's injury. Over his last seven games, Trey McBride has averaged a ludicrous 9.1 targets per game. The 77.4 yards per game he's averaging is Kelce-esque. Since that Week 8 usage bump, he's been first among all tight ends in target share, yards per route run, and targets per route run. Not only is he a must-start in fantasy for the remainder of the season, but it's hard to argue against the 24-year-old Mackey Award Winner as a top-three dynasty tight end.
Three Down
QB Tommy Devito, New York Giants
All good things must end, and Tommy DeVito's end appears near. He showed improvements in each of his first few starts. He was fun to root for. An exciting win in primetime over the Green Bay Packers further solidified his mark in NFL history. But he was exposed in a game where he was forced to play from behind. During his run, the Giants' offense leaned on Saquon Barkley, quick reads, and DeVito's legs. But when forced to air it out, he completed just 58.8% of his passes and no touchdowns. He may lose his role to Tyrod Taylor down the stretch. He may get the honors of finishing out the season. But any hopes that he would be the long-term starter are looking slim at this point.
RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
There's no need to panic about David Montgomery. His usage and the Lions' potent offense make him a reliable fantasy player down the stretch. But hopes that he'd retain his role as a top-five running back have quickly dissipated. Jahmyr Gibbs has looked outstanding recently, and the rookie's role is growing. Montgomery averaged a whopping 24.2 opportunities per game through his first four games this year. An injury opened the door for Gibbs, and Montgomery hasn't been blessed with the same usage. He returned from injury in Week 10 and has seen just 15.8 opportunities per game since. Early in the season, Montgomery's value came from his red-zone usage, where he out-touched Gibbs 24 to two. Since returning from injury, though, Montgomery is splitting that role with Gibbs, and Gibbs actually has the slight edge, at 20 to 18. Montgomery goes from the hopeful top-five back we saw early in the season to a high-floor/low-ceiling RB2 over the remainder of the fantasy season.
WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
Familiarity with Jordan Love and a preseason injury to Christian Watson made Romeo Doubs the early WR1 for the Packers. But as rookies Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft have gotten up to NFL speed, Doubs' role has quickly fallen by the wayside. Seven touchdowns and 13 red-zone targets have overshadowed a relatively disappointing season. His 19.7% target rate ranks 56th among wide receivers. He's averaging just 1.31 yards per route run, 64th in the league. And those season-long numbers don't tell the whole story, as he's been trending downward in recent weeks. Through the first half of the season, Doubs averaged 7.3 targets per game. Over the second half, just 4.7. Doubs' early-season volume has disappeared, and he's little more than a touchdown-or-bust WR4 for the rest of the year.