Links to other positions in this series:
It’s hard to believe the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, a lot can change from our original expectations.
Tight Ends Who Changed My Mind
Dallas Goedert (PHI) is one of the difference makers
There aren’t many tight ends who stand above the fray. The key in drafts is ensuring you don’t draft “just another guy” at the cost of a real difference maker. After the Eagles acquired A.J. Brown, I worried there wouldn’t be enough passing targets to support everyone. But it’s clear the coaches intend to move away from last year’s run-heavy approach and be more balanced, and Goedert was definitively the No. 2 option throughout camp and the preseason. He should see enough work to push for Top-5 value.
Dawson Knox (BUF) has a problematic ADP
The truth is most tight ends only have fantasy relevance when they score touchdowns, and inevitably there’s a point in every draft where you’re better off waiting until much later because the difference between the 8th tight end and the 15th is negligible. Knox has the unfortunate honor of being that guy this year. Take away his nine touchdowns last season, and he’s nothing special. You’re better off grabbing someone with comparable talent and target opportunity and hoping for positive touchdown variance.
Mike Gesicki (MIA) is an easy fade
Early in the preseason, Gesicki was comfortably ranked and drafted among the 8-to-10 difference makers at the position. But as we better understood what head coach Mike McDaniel has planned offensively, the warning signs emerged. Gesicki is now being used as an in-line option and will be primarily asked to block. He recently said he was “learning a new position,” which means fewer targets and marginal fantasy value.
Hunter Henry (NE) is just another guy
Long-time Footballguys subscribers know I’ve always had a soft spot for Henry, and last year’s TE6 finish vindicated my enthusiasm. But in truth, Henry’s value was driven by the nine touchdowns, as his target share and snap counts weren’t elite. Given the significant questions looming on the Patriots' offensive coaching staff and assuming negative touchdown regression, Henry projects as a fringy starter where you hope he finds the end zone to justify the lineup spot.
Irv Smith (MIN), Robert Tonyan Jr (GB), and Logan Thomas (WAS) are part of the late-round mix
All three tight ends missed the majority of camp and the preseason and went undrafted in most leagues. But each returned recently, and they are progressing toward early-season starting roles. Since half of your league will play the waiver wire hot hand at tight end all season, these three have paths to weekly value if the dominoes fall into place.
Brevin Jordan (HOU) remains enigmatic
Jordan was my favorite sleeper at the position a few months ago. The Texans need reliable targets, they jettisoned their veterans in the offseason, and Jordan has the athleticism to be a difference maker, particularly in the red zone. While all of that remains true, the drum beats have been confusing. Head coach Lovie Smith adores Pharaoh Brown, and the front office prioritized O.J. Howard after Buffalo released him in late August.
Rob Gronkowski (Retired) isn’t running it back, but his replacements should stay on waivers
When Tom Brady un-retired, most of us thought Rob Gronkowski would follow suit. While we can’t rule out a late-season return, Gronkowski seems committed to enjoying retired life for the next few months. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers signed Kyle Rudolph, and he and incumbent Cameron Brate likely cannibalize each other.
Daniel Bellinger (NYG) becomes a rare rookie starter
It’s unusual for a rookie tight end to start immediately, but necessity is the mother of invention. The Giants let Evan Engram walk in free agency and hoped a pair of veterans – Jordan Akins and Ricky Seals-Jones – would be a stop-gap. But rookie Bellinger made a quick impression, secured No. 1 snaps immediately, and held the job from there. Don’t expect him to impact 12-team redraft leagues, but if he becomes a red zone target, the narrative could change quickly.