Wide receiver points per target is a highly volatile stat from year to year, with performance in one year not predictive of performance the following season. For example, strong performance in one year does not predict strong performance in the statistic the next season. Likewise, poor performance in one year does not predict poor performance in the next season. In 2020, wide receivers with 50 or more targets averaged 1.87 PPR points per target. Players who significantly underperformed this number are candidates to bounce back the following year. Below is a group of five wide receivers who significantly underperformed the average points per target in 2020 and could be bounce-back candidates in 2021.
A.J. Green’s 2020 season was a disappointment. His 1.10 points per target were the worst of any wide receiver with at least 50 targets. Green has largely been written off as a declining player, but he saw an 18.3% target percentage and an average depth of target of 13.7, 23rd in the league, two signs there may be production left in the tank for Green. The problems could be attributable to other factors than Green, as only 60.6% of his targets were catchable, outside the top 100 of the position. Likewise, Green’s 2% touchdown rate is a potential area where he could rebound. There is little in the way of preventing Green from securing a WR2 role in Arizona and rehabilitate his production profile if he can stay healthy, largely based on better luck.
NKeal Harry
NKeal Harry’s tenure has been a disaster, and he asked for (but since backed away from) a trade this summer. His 1.38 points per target were second-worst of wide receivers with at least 50 targets. Various factors could cause Harry’s low target efficiency numbers, including bad luck and poor quarterback play from Cam Newton in 2020. Harry is largely an afterthought in dynasty leagues, but a second act could result in potential growth and luck.
Jalen Reagor had a forgettable rookie season. Of his targets, only 68.5% were catchable (94th at the position), and his 1.45 points per target were fifth-worst in the league. A different scheme and quarterback could change the fortune, and as sample size grows, Reagor should see a better per target production. The selection of Devonta Smith overshadows Reagor and could make him a cheap bet on positive regression in 2021.
Jerry Jeudy’s rookie season was a mixed bag. Of his targets, only 62.8% were catchable, 105th at the wide receiver position. Jeudy struggled in contested catches, with a 27.6% contested catch rate (94th), but was 6th in air yards (1536) and 18th in aDOT (13.6). In total, his 1.41 points per target were the third-worst of wide receivers with 50 or more targets. Sorting out the quarterback situation is critical, but in his current role, Jeudy should benefit from positive variance in 2021.
Darnell Mooney finds himself in a lucky situation for a wide receiver selected on day three of the NFL Draft: a clear starting role. The Bears traded Anthony Miller opening a role for Mooney as the WR2 in a Chicago offense that projects an upgrade with either Andy Dalton or Justin Fields starting instead of Mitchell Trubisky. Mooney had only 1.58 points per target in 2020 with a painful amount of misplaced deep balls, leaving him in a situation where he could grow in efficiency and volume in 2021. With Allen Robinson heading into free agency in 2022, a breakout for Mooney could correspond with a soaring dynasty value.
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