#Trendspotting: Week 10

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

Some key items are below:

• All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Playcalling Developments

Be sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up-to-date regarding updates to all articles I write here at FootballGuys. Feel free to reach out at any time with questions, comments, and concerns about this article or anything else fantasy football-related.

Tweets of the Week

Javonte Williams currently leads all of 84-qualifying RBs in missed tackles forced per touch (0.34)

Remember, rookie RBs are typically far more productive in the 2nd half of their rookie seasons pic.twitter.com/zTTyqLgZes

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 11, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Dating back to his collegiate years at North Carolina, Javonte Williams has a long track record as one of football's most talented players with the ball in his hands. Last season, when he led the nation in missed tackles forced, Williams graded as the number-one running back in all of college football. Now, in the NFL, he remains one of football's most elusive running backs. As Scott Barrett notes above, Javonte Williams ranks atop the league in missed tackles forced on a per-touch basis. Additionally, as the image included in the above tweet points out, rookie running backs have historically seen their production increase dramatically over the second half of the season. Various coaching tendencies help to explain this production jump. First, coaches likely trust rookie running backs more as the season progresses and the rookie accumulates important practice reps. Second, as the season wears on, talented rookie running backs become increasingly more likely to steal the starting job away from their inferior veteran counterparts. Look for Javonte Williams, one of the most talented runners in the league, to erupt in the second half of the season, when rookie running backs tend to thrive. Consider getting out in front of this potential eruption by putting in a trade offer for Williams as soon as possible, valuing Williams as a solid number-two running back or elite flex option in season-long formats.

A.J. Brown target shares in his 5 games since returning from injury in Week 5:
32%
38%
33%
34%
42%*

*Week 9 - nearly a career high (43%)

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 8, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Since his return from injury in Week 5, AJ Brown ranks fifth amongst wide receivers in fantasy scoring. As Mike Clay points out, Brown has commanded at least 32-percent of Tennessee's total targets in every outing over that span, including a mark 1-percent below his career-high target share for a single game. It is no coincidence that Brown posted a season-high 42-percent target share last week against the Los Angeles Rams right after Derrick Henry went down with a long-term foot injury. Tennessee shifted its offensive focus from one superstar to another. Instead of force-feeding Henry in nauseating volume, the Titans will need to rely on their elite play-makers on the outside, like AJ Brown, to keep their scoring numbers near the top of the NFL. In total, all signs point to AJ Brown posting gaudy numbers throughout the second half of this season. This weekend, consider building DraftKings lineups around AJ Brown, who is priced up at $7,900 against the New Orleans Saints.

TEN RB snaps in first game without Derrick Henry:

* Jeremy McNichols 26 (12 routes)
* Adrian Peterson 19 (6 routes)
* D'Onta Foreman 12 (1 route)

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 8, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Elsewhere in Tennessee's offense, the distribution of running back snaps in the first game without Derrick Henry is worth analyzing. Adam Levitan was kind enough to summarize the playing time data on Twitter earlier this week. Jeremy McNichols unsurprisingly topped the leaderboards in both total snaps and routes run amongst the side's running backs. Of the three running backs that played for the Titans last Sunday night, McNichols was the only one on the team's active roster two weeks ago. Expect McNichols to continue to play the majority of Tennessee's passing-down snaps in the backfield, a role he filled even before Henry's injury. This passing-down work, combined with increased early-down action, makes Jeremy McNichols a player worth rostering in season-long formats. Aside from McNichols, Adrian Peterson played the second-most snaps in Tennessee's backfield last week. Of Tennessee's current running backs, Adrian Peterson's running style is most similar to Derrick Henry's, which should provide Peterson with a consistent, if one-dimensional, role in the team's attack. Last week, with under one week of practice under his belt with the Titans, Peterson toted over 45-percent of the side's running-back-carries against the Rams. Suppose his efficiency approaches 4.0 yards-per-carry across a larger sample, which is a very low bar to clear. In that case, Peterson's share of Tennessee's rushing volume throughout the second half of the season will make him a player worth considering as a flex option in season-long formats.

Justin Fields' first four starts: 3.8 rush attempts and 17 rushing yards per game

Justin Fields' last three starts: 8.7 rush attempts and 62 rushing yards per game

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 9, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• As JJ Zachariason noted earlier this week, Justin Fields was hesitant to tuck the football and run earlier in the season. However, Justin Fields entered the NFL as a true dual-threat quarterback. Across his two seasons at Ohio State, Fields ran for 15 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards after removing sack yardage that counts against his box score totals by college football measurements. Notably, across his last three games, Fields's rushing volume has gone up over 200-percent, and his per-game rushing total has increased by more than 300-percent.
• Throughout Fields's rookie campaign, there is no denying that his offensive coaching staff has let him down. Fields has thrown multiple interceptions this season due to incompetent coaching telling him he had a free play before the snap when he did not. It is unclear whether this increased rushing volume has come at the direction of his coaching staff or whether Fields has taken matters into his own hands to make plays with his legs despite his lackluster coaching. Regardless of the direct cause of Justin Fields's increased rushing volume and production, it appears to be here to stay, making him a startable quarterback option in season-long formats following his Week 10 bye.

James Conner targets:
*Weeks 1-8: 5
*Week 9: 5

Taking the passing work while Edmonds is out (Conner also had a season-high 67% routes run rate on Sunday) combined with his TD equity will elevate Conner to a top 5-6 RB.

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) November 8, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Sam Hoppen took to Twitter earlier this week to make the bull case for James Conner as a fantasy asset throughout the remainder of the season. Chase Edmonds went down last weekend with a high ankle sprain that will likely keep him out for over a month. In his absence, James Conner stepped up and played 77-percent of Arizona's offensive snaps while registering season-highs in carries (21) and receptions (5.) Conner's primary complement without Edmonds in the picture will be Eno Benjamin, a capable second-year player from Arizona State with just 21 career offensive snaps to his name in the NFL. Conner may continue to shoulder the lion's share of the load in Arizona's backfield in the coming weeks, given the inexperience of the alternatives. If he does, as Sam Hoppen notes above, Conner's touchdown equity and potentially well-rounded profile of production could make him a top-end fantasy running back over the second half of the season. James Conner is worth considering for DraftKings lineups in contests of all formats in Week 10, when he is priced at just $6,300 despite his presumed bell-cow role in Arizona's backfield when they play host to Carolina. Thanks to his league-winning upside, Conner is also worth targeting as a late-season trade target in season-long formats.

Playcalling Developments

This table is data since Week 6. Eagles have gone from pass-centric to full-blown establishing it. pic.twitter.com/jevs6Ktrk7

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 10, 2021

Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) Explanation

• What is PROE?
  • PROE is a metric that quantifies how run-heavy or pass-heavy an offense is. A positive number, on the left half of the chart included in Adam Levitan's above tweet, means that the team's offense is pass heavy. A negative number, on the right half of the chart, means that the team's offense is run-heavy.
• What does PROE account for?
  • PROE accounts for the time, score, down, and distance of every snap in a game.
• How is PROE measured?
  • PROE is measured by taking a team's pass rate, adjusted for all of the game state measurements above, and comparing that to the projected pass rate, which is calculated by analyzing thousands of historically similar NFL snaps in nflstatR and projecting what the average NFL offense would have done in that exact situation (through complex algorithms and machine learning methods.)

Commentary and Action Items:

• Early in the season, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped off the page as one of the most pass-heavy units the NFL had ever seen. Nick Sirriani's tenure as Philadelphia's head coach got off to a very rocky start when the side lost to the Dallas Cowboys while handing it off to running backs only three times. Sirriani and the Eagles followed this perplexing performance up by handing the ball to running backs just 10 times in the side's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Fans and analysts alike were outraged one month into the season due to this never-before-seen reliance on the passing game led by a 23-year-old quarterback that entered this season with only four starts under his belt. However, since Week 6, the team has done a full 180 and turned into the NFL's most run-heavy offense. Across the team's first six games, the Eagles had an individual running back tally double-digit carries just three times. Conversely, across Philadelphia's last two games, the team had an individual running back tally double-digit carries five times. Although the team deploys a running-back-by-committee approach with Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell, it is a backfield worth investing in down the stretch in season-long formats. Jordan Howard is the team's early-down and goalline running back, making him the most intriguing option worth rostering as a potential flex option. Elsewhere, Boston Scott has leap-frogged Kenneth Gainwell on the team's depth chart and might be worth stashing on the bench, as he is Philadelphia's likely passing-down running back with receiving upside when the Eagles are playing from behind.
• Throughout the season's opening month, the Cincinnati Bengals deployed one of the NFL's most run-heavy offenses. However, since Week 6, the Bengals have thrown the ball approximately five percent more than expected, the seventh-highest mark in the NFL. Despite ranking 12th in the NFL in total targets, rookie wide receiver JaMarr Chase ranks 3rd in the league at his position in PPR scoring production this season. Thanks to his penchant for big plays, Chase will be worth considering in DFS every week down the stretch this season, even at a steep price tag. Opposite Chase, Tee Higgins, Cincinnati's number-two receiver, averages 8.5 targets per game in games that he has been healthy enough to play at least 60-percent of the team's offensive snaps. Although Higgins' receiving volume is impressive, the second-year player has not found the end zone since Week 2. Expect this scoring drought to end soon, making Higgins a prime breakout candidate throughout the second half of this season, thanks to Cincinnati's recent reliance upon its aerial attack. Under center, Joe Burrow remains a viable starting option in season-long formats due to his talented receiving corps and increased passing volume.