#Trendspotting: Week 5

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

Some key items are below:

• All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Opportunistic Producers

A third section will be added to this article on Friday afternoon when more information regarding injury situations is made available. Early in the season, finding the correct approach to such situations is the best way to gain an edge in fantasy football. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for information regarding when this article and The Sharp Report are updated throughout the week!

Next week, when we have five weeks of data at our disposal, #Trendspotting will expand and dive into defensive metrics and trends to help unveil the best matchups to target throughout the season.

Tweets of the Week

Something I didn't see coming this offseason:

Eagles have the second highest pass percentage over expectation at +7.8% (72% vs expected 64.2%)

— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) October 6, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Jalen Hurts is one of the league's top fantasy producers at quarterback so far in 2021, where he ranks as the number-three overall player at the position. The Philadelphia Eagles are providing Hurts with every opportunity to stuff the stat sheet by having him drop back to pass at an astonishingly high rate this year. The second-year quarterback's mobility creates additional fantasy value on these dropbacks through frequent scrambles. Hurts has carried the ball 34 times through 4 games this season but has only 1 touchdown to show for it. Philadelphia's offense has been especially poor around the goalline this season, and even if they lessen Hurts's passing volume in this area of the field, he stands to benefit as a potential ball-carrier in goal-to-go situations.
• Jalen Hurts is a fantasy star this season and must be treated as such in all formats. He warrants weekly consideration in DFS contests of any kind, and he is a no-brainer to start in season-long leagues.

Most touches through four games in any season...

Rodney Hampton 1993 -134
James Wilder 1985 - 129
Ricky Williams 2003 - 129
Derrick Henry 2021 - 127

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 4, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Derrick Henry was a safe bet before the season to be one of the highest-usage running backs in the NFL, health permitting. Through four games, Henry is bordering on all-time-high usage levels at the running back position. However, 1.5 out of these 4 games have come without Tennessee's top receiving targets on the field, as A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both went out midway through Week 3 with hamstring injuries and missed last week's game against the New York Jets. Henry will continue to see astronomical usage while Brown and Jones miss out, but it will likely dip far below the levels seen throughout the first four weeks of this season upon the return of each receiver. Throughout the careers of Brown and Jones, both have proven worthy of nearly 10 targets per game. However, this season, neither player has reached double-digit targets in a single game.
• Derrick Henry will always be a high-usage player within this offense. However, the lack of fantasy production at wide receiver for the Titans will not continue for long. Henry's historic touch totals through four games are likely to decrease a bit in the coming weeks when Brown and Jones return to the fold, with each player commanding the same top-tier volume through the air that they have in the past.
• The conclusion here is not that Derrick Henry's fantasy stock is likely to decrease at any worrying level. However, this early-season lack of receiving production for A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and the rest of Tennessee's receiving corps is unlikely to sustain. Henry's historic volume through four games is certainly notable, but it is unlikely to continue at a rate that would preclude Jones or Brown from realizing their fantasy potential. Consider this the only buy-low window on A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, two of the league's most talented and productive wide receivers in recent seasons.

Baker Mayfield Career Passing Grades
With OBJ: 68.7
Without OBJ: 90.7
This is no longer a coincidence. #Browns Need to trade OBJ immediately.

— John Kosko (@JohnKosko3) October 4, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• First, this is NOT an endorsement of the statement in John's tweet stating that the Browns need to trade Odell Beckham immediately. However, the significant decrease in passing efficiency for Cleveland's offense since last season with Beckham, Jr. on the field is unignorable. There are multiple times each game when Baker Mayfield will drop back to pass the ball and zero-in on Odell Beckham as if he is the only receiver on the field. Mayfield's efficiency through the air takes a substantial hit due to this tendency to ignore his other receiving options while forcing the ball to Odell Beckham, even if he is covered. Given Cleveland's run-heavy offensive style, Baker Mayfield's fantasy viability as a spot-starter and streaming option in season-long leagues is strictly dependent upon his efficiency. Without the top-end efficiency that Mayfield displayed throughout the latter half of the 2020 season and the first weeks of the 2021 season, he is an afterthought in almost all fantasy football formats, sans super-flex formats where quarterbacks are at a premium.
• Downgrade all non-Odell Beckham receiving options in Cleveland's offense for the time being until this problem is addressed, either through a schematic or personnel change. Given Baker Mayfield's insistence upon forcing the ball to Odell Beckham, it is impossible to trust any other pass-catcher in this attack.

The last five rookie QBs to face the Patriots have averaged 164.6 yards per game, have a TD-to-INT ratio of 1-to-11, and absorbed 15 sacks: pic.twitter.com/WzOaC26yTZ

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 7, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Unsurprisingly, Bill Belichick's complex defensive schemes give rookie quarterbacks fits, as Graham Barfield notes above. Now, in two out of the next three weeks, the Patriots take on rookie quarterbacks, traveling to Houston to take on Davis Mills in the Texans in Week 5 before taking on Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 7. In season-long formats, the New England defense is likely already rostered. However, if they are not, they make for a fantastic streaming option in the coming weeks. Conversely, despite the strongest showing of his young NFL career last week, fantasy managers should temper expectations for Zach Wilson in the upcoming weeks, thanks to this brutal matchup looming in Week 7.

Opportunistic Producers

Last week, we dove into position groups around the NFL that have been decimated by injuries and the opportunities that opened up for players originally slotted into backup roles in their respective offenses. This week, we will revisit those position groups and re-evaluate who the primary beneficiaries of these injuries are.

New York Giants Wide Receivers

• Kadarius Toney made the most of his newfound opportunity in New York's passing attack last weekend. Toney ran a route on 35 out of the team's 43 pass plays and commanded 8 targets, good for a 20-percent target share on the week. After the catch, Toney forced five missed tackles, which is exactly why the Giants made him a first-round pick. Toney's strong performance in his first start should earn the rookie more playing time down the line. He is worth considering as a high-upside bench player for season-long formats or as a salary-saving option in DFS lineups, especially if Sterling Shepard or Darius Slayton continues to miss time.
• Elsewhere in this passing attack, John Ross was activated before Week 4, which relegated Collin Johnson to an irrelevant role in the offense once again. However, Ross is unlikely to warrant fantasy consideration this season.

Denver Broncos Wide Receivers

• Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton unsurprisingly topped the charts as Denver's top two pass-catchers last weekend. As injuries pile up and take the Broncos' best receiving options off the field, production will concentrate at the top with these two. Fant ran routes on 37 out of 43 of the team's dropbacks last week, while Sutton ran routes on 42 out of 43 dropbacks. Expect both Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton to rise up fantasy leaderboards throughout the season as targets funnel their ways, regardless of who is under center for the Broncos.
• Denver's number-three receiving option, Tim Patrick, has yet to break through and make an impact throughout his NFL career. Despite his ranking as Denver's third-best receiving option, he should remain an afterthought in all fantasy football formats outside of very limited contrarian GPP exposure. Denver's lack of consistent efficiency through the air makes this offense unable to support three quality receiving options.