Can You Digg It? Stefon Diggs Remains a Top-3 Option

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A successful fantasy draft is as much about avoiding land mines as finding the right players. Perhaps it’s fair to wonder if a guy who finished third in PPR scoring at wide receiver after ranking 46th, 30th, 19th, 10th, and 24th in his first five seasons is worth a top-15 overall draft pick.

Yes, Stefon Diggs is worth it.

Being a Stefon Diggs fan in the early days was a little like being a fan of a really good indie band. It felt like being on the ground floor of something special. Not that other people didn’t think he was good, but perhaps they didn’t appreciate his artistry the way the Diggs faithful did. Then came 2020.

Last season was Diggs’ magnum opus. It was akin to U2’s album The Joshua Tree. Lots of people liked U2 before, but that album’s release in 1987 made everyone a U2 fan. And with good reason – it was a masterpiece. So was Diggs’ 2020 campaign. He led the league in targets (166), catches (127), and receiving yards (1,535). Team-changing wide receivers often need a year or more to get acclimated to their new ecosystem, but Diggs clicked with young QB Josh Allen right away.

When an indie band makes it big, there’s an accompanying increase in ticket prices as they go from playing clubs and theaters to arenas and stadiums. Diggs is costlier now, too. As of June 11, his average draft position was 14th overall in Fantrax leagues, 15th overall in Fanball best-ball leagues, and 19th overall in CBS leagues.

Let’s look at why Diggs is worth the price of admission.

CRANK UP THE VOLUME

Stefon Diggs’ targets per game:

Diggs played in some run-heavy offenses during his five years in Minnesota, first with Adrian Peterson at running back, then later with Dalvin Cook. When Diggs got to Minnesota in 2015, Adam Thielen was mostly a special teamer. But Thielen started to play a significant role offense in 2016, then had 295 combined targets in 2017 and 2018, finishing top 10 in targets in each of those seasons. Strangely, the two seasons in which Diggs posted the lowest target totals of his career were the only two seasons in which he led the Vikings in targets. He had a team-high 84 targets as a rookie in 2015 when Adrian Peterson had 327 carries and the Vikings were the third run-heaviest team in the league. In 2019, Thielen missed six games, the Vikings had the NFL’s fourth run-heaviest offense, and Diggs led the team with 94 targets.

Target volume is no longer an issue. Diggs is the undisputed alpha receiver in Buffalo’s offense. He had a whopping 29% target share last year. Cole Beasley was second in targets with 107, and no other Bills receiver saw more than 62. Buffalo added veteran WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, but the 34-year-old Sanders basically takes the roster spot of the departed John Brown and isn’t a threat to Diggs’ target load.

It should also be noted that the Bills were the 11th pass-heaviest team in the league in 2020 under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, throwing on 61.7% of their offensive plays. Bills running backs Zack Moss and Devin Singletary certainly aren’t going to negatively affect Diggs’ target share the way Adrian Peterson and Dalvin Cook did in Minnesota.

MODEL OF EFFICIENCY

It’s about more than just volume with Diggs. He’s also a remarkably efficient receiver. Last year, he caught 78.4% of his targets, the fourth-best catch rate among receivers who played at least 50% of their team’s snaps. The other three receivers with a better catch rate than Diggs all had a lower average depth of target by at least a full yard, meaning that Diggs was typically catching longer throws than those guys. Diggs’ career catch rate is 70.3%. He averaged 9.48 yards per target last season, which ranked 19th among receivers with at least a 50% snap share. In 2019, his 12.4 yards per target ranked second behind only A.J. Brown.

JOSHIN’ AROUND

Diggs’ spectacular season wouldn’t have been possible without a quantum leap from Josh Allen. Regarded by many fantasy analysts as a scatter-armed project just a year ago, Allen blossomed in his third season and earned MVP consideration. The transformation was nothing short of remarkable – a chrysalis turning into a butterfly.

Allen was so consistently outstanding that there’s no way his season could have been a fluke. He has officially arrived as a cornerstone franchise quarterback, and Diggs is his go-to guy.

In his first three years in the league, Diggs' quarterbacks were Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, and Case Keenum. In his final two years in Minnesota, he got an upgrade, playing with Kirk Cousins, but Cousins is still little more than a league-average quarterback. On the other hand, Allen played like a bona fide star last season.

NITPICKING

Let’s at least acknowledge a minor blemish on Diggs’ record -- he hasn’t been a prolific touchdown scorer. His totals haven’t been awful, but he’s never hit double digits in a single season. As good as he was in 2020, he reached the end zone only eight times. Bills rookie Gabriel Davis had one fewer touchdown catch than Diggs despite having 92 fewer total catches.

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

FINAL THOUGHTS

Diggs has long been considered a craftsman at his position, but he’s now taken his game to a new level. He’s exceeded 1,000 yards in three consecutive seasons and has topped the 100-catch mark in two of the last three. In Minnesota, Diggs was constrained by a run-heavy offense, average to below-average quarterbacking, and sharing targets with Adam Thielen. In Buffalo, Diggs is the go-to guy for one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks. At 27 years old, Diggs is squarely in his prime. He’s one of the safer investments at the receiver position, and he’d be a terrific late-first-round or early-second-round pick.