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Monkey Knife Fight Top Plays: Week 4

Dan Hindery's Monkey Knife Fight Top Plays: Week 4
By Dan Hindery, September 30, 2021

Monkey Knife Fight Top Plays: Week 4
Photo: USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.

5: Going big on touchdowns

More than 2.5 touchdowns between Joe Mixon, JaMarr Chase, and James Robinson

    • This is a spot where we can get aggressive and attempt to 4X our buy-in.
    • The Thursday night game between the Bengals and Jaguars has a relatively high over-under of 46 points and has a good chance of going over with both offenses having some advantages.
    • The game features a pair of talented young quarterbacks starting to come into their own. The last time these two faced each other was in LSU’s 42-25 win in the national title game. In that game, JaMarr Chase had 9 catches for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns.
    • Chase has averaged 1.33 touchdowns per game to start his NFL career. While this number is bound to drop, it is worth noting it is actually a decrease compared to his 1.43 touchdowns per game in his final college season.
    • By any measure, Chase is off to a fantastic start to his career. After a training camp marred by drops, he has been nearly flawless since the real games have started.
    • With Tee Higgins again sidelined, the target tree for the Bengals narrows a bit and gives both Chase and Tyler Boyd a higher floors in a game they should have success. The Jaguars defense ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass.
    • While Joe Burrow and the wide receivers generate more headlines, Joe Mixon has been the engine of this offense. The Bengals rank as the fourth-most run heavy team in the NFL when adjusting for situation. He is averaging 22.3 carries per game and playing almost every down as one of the few true every down backs in the league.
    • The Jaguars have given up 1.6 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs this season.
    • Like many teams, the Bengals have struggled against offenses with mobile quarterbacks. Half of Lamar Jackson’s most dazzling career highlights have come against Cincinnati. The run threat of Trevor Lawrence should open up bigger holes for James Robinson than were available for Najee Harris against this defense last week.
    • It finally seems to be sinking in for Urban Meyer that his offense should be running through James Robinson. He is starting to separate himself from Carlos Hyde and his usage over the past two weeks has been more of what we expected coming into the season.
    • The Jaguars looked like the best versions of themselves for stretches of the second half of last week’s game against the Cardinals and those drives were run heavy featuring Robinson.

4: Brown over Sutton

Courtland Sutton LESS than 73.5 receiving yards
Marquise Brown MORE than 58.5 receiving yards

    • Ben Gretch has championed an interesting new statistical measure he calls weighted targets per route run as a highly predictive way to spot players who are seeing big fantasy opportunity. Through the early part of the season, Marquise Brown ranks fifth in wTPRR.
    • Brown is averaging 78.3 yards per game this season and probably should be averaging over 100 receiving yards per game had he not had some bad drops last week.
    • We have seen that drop rates are difficult to predict and not a sticky stat. The only thing that really matters is if the issue leads to the player seeing less targets. The Ravens have little choice but to keep feeding Brown and his close relationship with Lamar Jackson doesn’t hurt.
  • Courtland Sutton had one huge game against the Jaguars but managed just 51 total yards in his other two games.
  • He has gone over 73.5 receiving yards in just 10 of his 36 career games.
  • The Ravens defense has taken a very New England-style approach on defense the past two weeks in trying to take away the opposing team’s best pass-catcher. Two weeks ago, they bracketed Tyreek Hill on nearly every play and he had one of the quietest games of his career (3-14-0). They effectively took away T.J. Hockenson last week (2-10-0) by shifting extra coverage his way. This week, Sutton may see similar treatment.

3: Unders in NYC

Ryan Tannehill LESS than 266.5 passing yards
Zach Wilson LESS than 225.5 passing yards

This is a strong correlation play on a predicted game script in which Derrick Henry is able to run all over the Jets and allow the Titans to control time of possession.

The Jets rank 32nd in the NFL in passing DVOA. The Titans rank 24th in passing DVOA.

With Mekhi Becton out, the Jets offense has gone from bad to worse. Zach Wilson has regressed each week. After a solid 258-yard, 2-touchdown performance in Week 1, he has thrown for just 370 yards total (185 per game) with no touchdowns and 6 interceptions the past two weeks.

As of Thursday morning, it is still unclear whether A.J. Brown and Julio Jones will be able to go this weekend. However, one thing is clear, neither player is likely to be 100%. Julio Jones played just 51% of the snaps last week and has barely practiced since joining the Titans. He was listed as out with a hamstring injury yesterday. A.J. Brown also missed with a hamstring injury.

In what is expected to be a low-scoring game, it is hard to see how Tannehill throws for 267+ yards without his only two real passing weapons anywhere near full health.

2: Packers Passing stack

Aaron Rodgers (-1.5) more fantasy points than Aaron Jones
Davante Adams (-3.5) more fantasy points than Ben Roethlisberger

This is a strong correlation play, putting all of our eggs in the Packers' passing basket, which also fits well with the strengths and weaknesses of the two defenses involved.

The Steelers are arguably the league’s best defense against opposing running backs. Through three games, Pittsburgh has allowed just 11.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backs (third-least in the NFL). This is not fluky. The Steelers were also third-best against opposing running backs last season, as well.

Davante Adams has been on a ridiculous tear over the past two seasons. Last week, he was targeted 18 times and produced 31.2 fantasy points.

In his last 17 games, Adams has averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game.

Ben Roethlisberger looks cooked. He has thrown a total of three touchdown passes this season despite throwing the ball 43.3 times per game and is yet to have a 16-point fantasy performance.

Green Bay’s defense has been more easily attacked on the ground than through the air. Last season, the Packers allowed just 16.0 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, sixth-least in the NFL.

1: More on MNF

Mike Williams MORE than 78.5 receiving yards
Darren Waller MORE than 6.5 receptions
Austin Ekeler MORE than 5.5 receptions

    • We are getting a strong correlation play here. If this game turns into a pass-heavy, back-and-forth affair, we have a great chance of hitting on all of three of these props and getting 5X our buy-in.
    • A close, high-scoring affair should be in the cards. The game total of 52.5 points is the third-highest this week. It features the league leader in passing yards (Derek Carr with 1,203). Justin Herbert (319 passing yards per game) has not been too shabby either.
    • The way that the Chargers are using Mike Williams has changed drastically this year compared to past seasons. Instead of using him almost exclusively as a deep threat and jump ball in the end zone player, they are now peppering him with short and intermediate targets.
  • Williams is averaging 10.3 targets per game and has at least 7 catches, 82 yards, and a touchdown in every single game this season.
  • Austin Ekeler’s season-long numbers are skewed a bit by weird Week 1 usage that was likely due to an injury that kept him out of practice the whole week. In the two weeks since, he has caught 15 passes.
  • In his last eight games, Darren Waller has averaged 11.0 targets per game. In big games especially, Carr has honed in on Waller and peppered him with targets. In prime time against the Chargers, we should again expect to see Waller get a bunch of opportunities.

Week 3 Review

  • Last Week: -5
  • Season Total: (-7)

We had our toughest week in two years in Week 3. There was a little bit of bad luck in terms of efficiency that went against us but going away from same-game correlations to target stars was an unwise experiment that will be abandoned moving forward.

  • 5, Ground game: (-1) This one turned into a loss quickly when Christian McCaffrey went down with an injury.
  • 4, Star Wide Receivers: (-1) We took the L on this one. Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen both came up short of their yardage totals despite seeing 10 and 12 targets, respectively.
  • 3, Star Wide Receivers, Part II: (-1) Calvin Ridley (11 targets) and Tyreek Hill both came in a bit under.
  • 2, Rushing upside: (-1) We banked on the rushing upside of Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson to have solid fantasy outings. Murray did have a rushing touchdown but did not throw any despite passing for 316 yards. We were a couple of Marquise Brown drops away from Lamar Jackson getting there.
  • 1, Chiefs Stack: (-1) Hit on only half of this one with the Kelce side a winner but Justin Herbert out-passing Patrick Mahomes II.
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Daily FF Davante Adams Keenan Allen Tyler Boyd A.J. Brown Marquise Brown Joe Burrow Derek Carr Ja'Marr Chase Stefon Diggs Austin Ekeler Najee Harris Derrick Henry Justin Herbert Tee Higgins Tyreek Hill T.J. Hockenson Carlos Hyde Lamar Jackson Aaron Jones Julio Jones Trevor Lawrence Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey Joe Mixon Kyler Murray Calvin Ridley James Robinson Aaron Rodgers Ben Roethlisberger Courtland Sutton Ryan Tannehill Darren Waller Mike Williams Zach Wilson

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