Can the Rams Unlock Matthew Stafford's Elite Potential?

Tom Brady’s performance down in Tampa Bay last year is mouth-watering to fantasy managers when they consider Matthew Stafford’s chances for the coming season. Pairing Brady with playmakers and an offensive-minded coach allowed him to throw a whopping 40 touchdowns in his first season after leaving New England. Can Matthew Stafford expect a similar result as the new quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams? That’s unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility. He has a few hurdles to clear, and he’s not Tom Brady, but 30 touchdowns is a reasonable benchmark for Stafford based on some positive changes for him in 2021:

• He gets the best offensive coaching staff of his career
• He should see a significant spike in the play-action pass rate
• He gets at least a slight upgrade in offensive weapons
• History points to a top-12 pass attempt volume
• He has elite fantasy seasons on his resume in the past

While the positives are undeniable, there are risks worth considering:

• He provides almost no rushing value in an era of mobile fantasy quarterbacks
• His schedule is packed with strong defenses and dominant pass rushers

Balancing the factors above points to a baseline expectation of a top-10 fantasy finish, but pushing for top-5 production might be asking too much. Stafford makes a fine choice as your starting quarterback after the elite producers are off the board.

Hope springs eternal in the preseason, and right now, expectations are aggressive for Stafford having a career year under the watchful eye of head coach Sean McVay. Fantasy managers are equally hopeful Stafford’s presence under center will raise the fortunes of the Rams' skill players, who had to deal with Jared Goff’s perceived mundanity in prior years. But are we sure Stafford is substantively better than Goff? To answer the question, let’s look at what he has done in Detroit and look at what the Rams have done under Sean McVay as a whole with Goff under center.

GOFF'S CAREER WITH THE RAMS

The trade to Detroit signified Sean McVay's tiring of his franchise quarterback. It is hard to argue with the Rams’ coach that Goff regressed. Goff’s metrics in his final two seasons are night and day from his first two seasons with McVay.

Jared Goff Quarterback Metrics Under Sean McVay

Sources: Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Outsiders, NFL Next Gen Stats

He regressed in almost every major way, failing to push the ball down the field. His yards-per-attempt averaged plummeted as did his touchdown rate. To McVay’s credit, he did something many NFL decision-makers never do, decided to cut bait on a good quarterback in search of someone great. Goff's travails were particularly damning because they came in what most believe is one of the NFL's most quarterback-friendly systems. McVay's Rams have consistently been at or near the top of the league in pass attempts, as well as play-action percentage. Many studies have shown play-action passing directly correlates with overall offensive effectiveness, and quarterback productivity.

Rams Offensive Ranks Under Goff and McVay

Sources: Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Outsiders

The team went from a top-8 passing offense two years in a row, to average or below-average the next two seasons. Note that in spite of a downward trajectory of effectiveness, McVay remained resolute in using play-action. The Rams ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in play-action rate in each of four seasons. The team has never been below 13^th place in raw pass attempts. Combining those two factors makes for a robust situation for any quarterback to step into. Unfortunately for Goff he was trending down in an offense that should allow him to flourish. Enter Matthew Stafford.

MATTHEW STAFFORD IN DETROIT

Stafford’s career in Detroit has been an interesting one, and opinions on his place among the pantheon of modern quarterbacks vary widely.

He entered the league in 2009 and missed 19 of his first 32 possible games with different injuries. But from 2011 through 2020, he was an iron man -- only missing eight games in 2019. Early recriminations of being injury-prone were unfounded.

But the question of just how good of an NFL quarterback Stafford is continues to dog him. He’s rarely been blessed with a strong defense, and when he was, in 2014, he guided his team to the playoffs while nearly pulling off a Wild Card round road win in Dallas. The Lions' offensive lines were never elite. It’s ironic the Lions now seem poised to have an ascending line with stud rookie tackle Penei Sewell, and the extension of standout center Frank Ragnow. But how good was Stafford for the Lions?

His touchdown rate has swung wildly from a low of 2.8% (2012) to a high of 6.5% (2019). But generally, he was in the mid-4% range, and his career average is 4.5%, which is a reasonable starting point in projecting his value in Los Angeles. Stafford’s other measurables show similar volatility. He has outlier seasons with top-5 upside in any given category coupled with equally poor seasons the other way. But in most seasons he's provided league average, or better, production. For comparison, here are Stafford's last four seasons:

Matthew Stafford Recent Passing Metrics

Sources: Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Outsiders, NFL Next Gen Stats

It’s worth noting the 2017 and 2018 seasons were hampered by the incompetence of offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. But realistically, over the life of Stafford’s career, Detroit did him no favors. Much of his career was spent with a revolving door of uninspiring play-callers. One might argue Stafford's ability to put up above-average numbers under those circumstances lends credence to his ability to put up elite stats under the watchful eye of a top-tier offensive coach.

Additionally, while the Lions have generally been a high-volume passing offense in Stafford's era, it was rarely efficient. Part of the problem was a lack of play action. The Lions consistently ranked near the league's bottom before ranking 13th in play-action attempts in 2020. Even so, there is a definite pattern that reveals itself in examining Stafford’s numbers. He's been solid, occasionally elite, and rarely below average. Consider that in 2019, he pushed the ball downfield at the highest rate in the league while still posting the league’s second-highest adjusted yards per attempt. Can Sean McVay and his staff unlock Stafford’s full potential? It certainly appears to be in the range of outcomes as more play-action passing and offensive creativity could allow Stafford's touchdown rate to jump into the 5-5.5% range. But, expecting the veteran to hit his ceiling in Year One with the Rams may be asking for too much.

STAFFORD’S SITUATION IN LOS ANGELES

Most people think Stafford gets a huge upgrade in his offensive supporting cast in Los Angeles. But that may not necessarily be the case.

Stafford didn’t have Kenny Golladay's services in 2020, but he did play with him for most of 2018 and 2019. His other options included the competent Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back DeAndre Swift. In Los Angeles, Stafford will have Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, rookie Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, and Cam Akers. It’s reasonable to call the Rams cadre better than the Lions, but it is not as large of a margin as one might think.

Another factor to consider is that Stafford will go from playing with a bottom-tier defense to a top-tier defense. Playing with a better defense cuts both ways. A sizeable percentage of his passing production in Detroit came when the Lions were tied or trailing. With the Rams, it's feasible the game scripts will allow more ball control particularly late in games. The upside is efficiency. If Stafford's not under pressure from a bad offensive line, and his defense has him in control of the game script, it's possible he'll be able to relax and play carefree rather than feeling the constant drumbeat of clawing back from a double-digit deficit.

The Rams schedule poses a possible red flag. The team faces the Ravens, Buccaneers, Bears, and Colts to go along with six divisional games. Each of those teams has a strong pass rush, which means at least 10 of 17 games will be challenging. On the other hand, projecting strength of schedule based prior year records is problematic, at best.

CONCLUSION

Even so, despite the red flags, eclipsing 30 touchdowns in 2021 isn't an unlikely outcome, and the possibility for more is tantalizing. The good thing for drafters is that there are enough skeptics out there to keep Stafford's cost manageable. As he adjusts to new surroundings and a new system, his numbers may lag expectations in the early weeks (much like Tom Brady's did in Tampa Bay last year), but Stafford could be a league winner down the stretch as everything falls into place. Don't expect him to morph into a top-five fantasy quarterback in Los Angeles, but feel secure in his being a solid No. 1 starter at an enticing cost.

STATS AND PROJECTIONS