Clyde Edwards-Helaire: A Tale of Two Seasons

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The word “bust” is thrown around a lot regarding Clyde Edwards-Helaire and his rookie campaign. In hindsight, his expectations should have been tempered by the fantasy community. After hardly cracking the top-five in rookie running back rankings before the 2020 NFL Draft, he shot up draft boards following the Chiefs’ first-round selection. He inevitably ended up as a first-round pick in almost all fantasy leagues.

Red flags were ignored

• A 5-foot-7 frame
• A relatively inefficient college career
• A late breakout age
• Poor pass-blocking
• A disappointing Scouting Combine

We let the narrative overtake our scrutiny. Patrick Mahomes II lobbied for him. Head coach Andy Reid compared him to Brian Westbrook. He was a key part of the best offense in college football history. The NFL's best offense took him in the first round. Kareem Hunt and Jamaal Charles thrived in the same system. Unfortunately, Edwards-Helaire fell short of his fantasy draft position and left a bad taste in the mouths of those that selected the explosive rookie.

Ok, so "bust" is a bit harsh.

In reality, Edwards-Helaire wasn’t a bust. Rather than being disappointed in his performance, we should be disappointed in our blind love for what appeared to be an ideal situation. By season’s end, the LSU product finished as RB20 in points per game. Now, heading into 2021, he’s ranked as our RB15 in PPR formats. Putting our interpretation of last year's 20th-ranked performance aside, is he worth targeting again in 2021? He's still the same player. He still has the same traits we fell in love with 12 months ago. He's still the lead back in one of the NFL's top offenses. He still has the same desirable traits heading into his rookie season, with a few new ones to boot.

A Promising First 6 Weeks

As if the hype train hadn’t gained enough steam during the 2020 preseason, a primetime win over the Texans in Week 1 had it rocking off the rails. Edwards-Helaire debuted with 25 carries for 138 yards and was trusted with six goal-line carries. The next four weeks were a bit underwhelming as he failed to crack 64 rushing yards in a single outing. But he made up for the pedestrian rushing totals as a receiver, averaging 6.3 targets for 42.3 yards per game over that stretch. Then in Week 6, he popped against the Bills for 165 scrimmage yards on 30 touches. Through six games, he was on track for a fantastic rookie season. He amassed 682 yards through six weeks, which made up for only finding the end zone once.

Then the Chiefs signed LeVeon Bell, and everything changed.

LeVeon Bell -- once the league's top running back but not toiling in New York -- was frustrated with the Jets and pushed for a trade. New York found no takers and released him. The Chiefs unexpectedly swooped in via free agency, and Edwards-Helaire's fantasy managers held their collective breath. Unfortunately, the impact was immediate. After playing 60% or more of the snaps in each game before Bell, the rookie was on the field for 53% snaps in Bell's first contest. His snap count fell to 50% the following week and plummeted to 43% before heading into the bye week.

Edwards-Helaire's declining role would've been justified had Bell looked like the All-Pro from his Steelers heyday. But the veteran was a massive disappointment. Bell had 63 carries for 254 yards (4.0 yards-per-carry) and scored just twice in nine games. But the competition for targets and lack of trust from the coaching staff seemed to affect Edwards-Helaire. From Week 7 (Bell’s first game) onward, Edwards-Helaire averaged just 13.9 touches for 59.7 scrimmage yards per game. Compared to the 23.0 touches for 113.7 yards before Bell’s arrival, this couldn’t be more disheartening. In addition to the drop in production, Edwards-Helaire missed three of the season's final five games.

Prior to Le'Veon Bell's arrival in Kansas City, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was pacing for 1,347 rushing yards and 472 receiving yards.

1,819 scrimmage yards would have been THIRD-BEST in the league behind just Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook.

With an ADP of 21.7, he's a great value.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) June 2, 2021

The acquisition of Bell was brutal for the rookie. Edwards-Helaire’s 1,819 scrimmage yards (a 16-game extrapolation of his first six games) would have been the third-most scrimmage yards in 2020, behind just Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. It also would have been the fourth-most scrimmage yards from a rookie since 2003. Only Doug Martin (1,872), Ezekiel Elliott (1,994), and Saquon Barkley (2,028) set higher marks in their first years.

Is Pass Blocking the Real Issue?

Edwards-Helaire's pass blocking was a significant question mark coming out of college. The LSU Tigers seldom called on running backs to block, and it showed. As a rookie, he ranked as the 46th-best pass-blocking running back, according to Pro Football Focus. The silver lining is that he was second-best on the team, with only the now-departed Bell ahead of him. For Edwards-Helaire to stay on the field, he needs to improve. Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and Edwards-Helaire both acknowledge the need to improve. The team seems determined to keep him on the field during passing downs this year. Andy Reid isn't going to put a running back on the field -- regardless of their talent -- if it risks Patrick Mahomes II' health. The Chiefs have half a billion dollars invested in their cornerstone quarterback.

Back to the original question: Is he worth targeting again in 2021?

Absolutely!

There's a lot to build upon after a top-20 rookie year. He’ll head into his sophomore campaign with Darrel Williams, Jerick McKinnon, and Darwin Thompson behind him on the depth chart. Williams has never rushed for more than 169 yards in a season. McKinnon is a 29-year-old that has started just five games in the last four seasons, never eclipsing the 600-yard mark in a single year. Thompson is a former sixth-round pick that hasn't played much in two seasons.

Edwards-Helaire is a dual-threat on one of the most explosive offenses in the game. The Chiefs led the league in offensive yards and first downs last year while having the third-most yards per play. Anchored by a superstar trio of Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill, Edwards-Helaire should have plenty of room to run. According to PlayerProfiler, he saw an average of 6.5 defenders in the box last year, 62nd among running backs. He faced six or fewer defenders in the box on a whopping 56.9% of his carries, the ninth-highest in the league.

While we, as a fantasy football community, may have gotten a bit too excited about Edwards-Helaire last preseason, we've overreacted in the other direction this preseason. In 2018, Kareem Hunt missed a few games, and Spencer Ware and Damien Williams took over in his absence. In 2019, the Chiefs ran through a stable of running backs, including Williams, LeSean McCoy, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, and Spencer Ware. In 2020, the Chiefs used a mix of Edwards-Helaire, Bell, Williams, Thompson, Anthony Sherman, and DeAndre Washington. As a unit, the Chiefs running back corps always delivers.

Chiefs Running Back Corps (2018-2020)

Before Bell's arrival, Edwards-Helaire saw a 77.52% share opportunity. Only James Robinson, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, and Derrick Henry had heavier workloads. With Bell gone and Edwards-Helaire more mature and committed to pass protection, imagine what kind of numbers he can deliver if he maintains a 77%+ market share? Based on the Chiefs typical running back output, a 77.5% usage rate equates to:

• 235 carries
• 1,025 rushing yards
• 9 rushing touchdowns
• 81 targets
• 70 receptions
• 562 receiving yards
• 5 receiving touchdowns

Those yardage numbers are pretty close to his six-game extrapolation from the beginning of the season. While this shouldn’t be used as a baseline projection, it shows Edwards-Helaire's upside potential as the bellcow.

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Don't let overinflated expectations last preseason cloud your judgment this year. Edwards-Helaire's meteoric rise up the preseason rankings led many to view him as a bust, even though he was a top-20 fantasy back on a per-game basis. But part of the shortfall was a combination of undeveloped pass blocking and the misguided addition of LeVeon Bell. History tells us that young running backs can vastly improve as pass blockers if they're committed to their craft. All indications are he has devoted considerable time in the offseason to improve as a blocker. Without Bell in the mix to muck up the snap count, Edwards-Helaire stands to be a workhorse for one of the league's top offenses. Add in a much improved offensive line, and the second-year tailback could be one of the year's best values. All of the desirable traits that caused us to fall in love with Clyde Edwards-Helaire last year still exist, and this could be your last chance to draft him outside of the first round.

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