Alvin Kamara Is Still Elite without Drew Brees

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Alvin Kamara finished as the No. 1 fantasy running back (PPR) last year despite a handful of obstacles.

• 187 carries
• 932 rushing yards
• 5.0 yards per rush
• 16 rushing touchdowns
• 107 targets
• 83 receptions
• 756 receiving yards
• 5 receiving touchdowns

Last year marked the third time in four seasons Kamara finished as a top-5 fantasy back, and in 2019 he finished No. 15 despite missing a handful of games. However, 2021 is a new year that ushers in new challenges to the Saints' offense without their Hall of Fame quarterback, Drew Brees. Fantasy managers will keenly remember the pitfalls in Kamara’s production without Brees. The future is murky, at best, in part because it’s unclear who will be under center for New Orleans.

Despite the uncertainty at signal-caller, Kamara should still be an early first-round draft pick regardless of scoring format.

Questions are Justified

No offense to Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston, but they are not Drew Brees. His departure will echo throughout the entire organization and will probably remain so for quite some time. Nevertheless, a new season is upon us and the show (or game, in this instance) must go on.

At least we aren’t entirely clueless about what the offense may look like with either Hill or Winston under center. Granted, the sample size is very small, particularly in Winston’s case. However, we do have four solid weeks of Hill as the starting quarterback to explore. It wasn’t great for Kamara for the first two weeks.

The Brief Snapshot

Winston saw the most action in Week 10 against San Francisco after Brees hurt his thumb. Winston played the remaining 34 snaps and completed six of 10 passes -- Four of those completions were to Kamara.

Despite Winston getting the nod in Week 10, it was Hill who took over in Week 11 and started through Week 14 in Brees’ absence. Prior to the injury, Kamara’s was a top-10 fantasy back in every week save for one 13th-place finish (Week 5). When Hill took over, Kamara finished as RB22 and RB37 in Weeks 11 and 12, respectively.

Kamara was only targeted three times in those first two games after being targeted between six and 14 times per week with Brees at the helm. Week 13 wasn’t much better as Kamara caught two passes on three targets.

In 34 snaps, Winston equaled the same amount of completions to Kamara that it took Hill three weeks to accomplish.

So, if Hill is the starting quarterback this year, we should fade Kamara, right?

Not so fast.

The Learning Curve

When it comes to experience as a starting quarterback in the NFL, Winston has the edge over Hill; there is no argument. Hill had seen his share of gadget plays in recent seasons, but hadn't started at quarterback until Week 11.

Logically, there was bound to be a learning curve.

His first three weeks as the starter were disheartening for Kamara’s fantasy value, but it luckily did not stay that way. Hill finally got his act together in Week 14 against the Philadelphia Eagles and targeted Kamara 10 times; Kamara caught seven passes for 44 yards. Kamara added 11 rushing attempts for 54 yards but could not find the end zone. However, that didn’t matter one bit. He still finished as the RB10 with 22.4 points.

That is what makes Kamara one of the league's best. As long as he is involved in both the passing game and the run game, he will be an elite asset.

What About the Other Great RBs Who Were Absent in 2020?

Another possible knock against Kamara is that some big names were missing from the 2020 season that helped him solidify his number one position on the leaderboard. Namely, Panthers’ running back, Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey played only three games last year, much to the heartbreak of fantasy managers around the world. He is the consensus number one pick in fantasy drafts for a reason. Kamara’s numbers as the RB1 in 2020 pale in comparison to McCaffrey’s 2019 season when he was healthy for 15 games.

Giants’ running back Saquon Barkley was also absent last year after tearing his ACL in Week 2. He was also hampered in 2019 and played in only 12 games but still managed to finish as the RB12 on the season. He finished a close third in 2018 behind McCaffrey and Todd Gurley with 361.6 points over 16 games.

Then, there is Ezekiel Elliot who fell short of expectations last year following Dak Prescott's season-ending injury. Yet, even with dismal offensive line play, quarterbacking, and uncharacteristic fumbles, Elliott still finished as No. 10 fantasy back. However, we were used to seeing numbers like 329.2 (2018) and 284.3 (2019) from the Cowboys’ star.

Did the absence of production from these players help Kamara’s final ranking? Certainly. That still doesn’t mean that Kamara shouldn't be considered on equal footing with them, as evidenced by his prior top-5 fantasy seasons.

2021 Projections and Final Thoughts

The Footballguys consensus rankings for Kamara have him at No. 3 behind Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. Our consensus projections call for 198.6 rushing attempts for 964 yards and 12.1 touchdowns. Despite the low rushing volume predicted, he's projected for 76.3 receptions, 680 yards, and just under four touchdowns. It is important to remember Kamara is in a unique position of not being part of a true running back committee, but veteran backup Latavius Murray still has a significant role. Murray rushed 146 times compared to Kamara’s 187 but only scored four times. As a receiver, Murray was targeted 26 times to Kamara's 107.

Kamara is too talented and the coaching staff too experienced for Drew Brees' retirement to derail the running back's fantasy value. There is the risk of Taysom Hill beating out Jameis Winston as we've seen Hill check down to Kamara far less in his starts than the Saints' other quarterbacks. But even that risk is based on a small sample size, and it stands to reason the coaches will emphasize targeting Kamara in most game scripts. If Hill continually avoids throwing to Kamara, he won't keep the starting job in all likelihood. There are plenty of other viable options at the running back position in the first round, but don't let Kamara fall too far.