An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. We've listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and let you know what to do with them in Week 8's Three Up, Three Down article.
Three Up
Kyle Pitts: Through his first seven weeks in the NFL, Pitts is mocking those of us that faded him in the offseason for being a rookie tight end. Not only is he averaging 78.5 yards per game, but he’s seen an increase in yards in four consecutive weeks. To put into context how incredible the start to this season has been, Pitts can drop his yardage total to 60.5 per week and still set the all-time NFL record for rookie tight ends. He’s been lining up all over the field and has seen eight-plus targets in half of his games played. His designation on the depth chart may say tight end, but Pitts has lined up outside on 31.6 percent of his snaps this year, the highest rate of any tight end in the league. And just last week, he drew coverage from All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard. Pitts made him look silly on a couple of contested catches, showing that he is entirely up to NFL speed and ready to be a dominant force. Pitts was expected to have a bit of a learning curve coming out of college, like most tight ends. He has quickly laid those concerns to rest. He has already shown enough talent and opportunity to be considered an elite fantasy tight end moving forward.
Damien Harris: Being gamescript-dependant has a negative connotation, but it isn’t always a bad thing. Through Week 7, Harris certainly falls into the “boom or bust” category of running backs. However, when looking at his schedule, it’s easy to predict when he’ll have good weeks. Harris saw just ten total rushes in Weeks 3-4 against the Saints and Buccaneers. In those matchups, the Patriots leaned heavily on their pass attack due to the opponent’s stout rush defenses. In week 5, Harris suffered an injury against the Texans and was limited to just 33 percent of the team’s snaps. In four other games, all with gamescripts projected to work in Harris’s favor, he’s averaged 17.3 carries, 92.3 yards, and one touchdown per game. Bill Belichick likes to have roles for his running backs, and although Harris doesn’t see a lot on passing downs, he gets the early-down and goalline work. Those touches are both valuable in projected wins. He’s got a few tough matchups coming up, which could open a buy window for him. Looking at his Week 17 matchup against the Jaguars, it’s easy to get excited about a massive game during fantasy championship week. He’s trending up now, could see a potential dip in value over the next few weeks, and makes for a great asset once the playoffs roll around.
Ryan Tannehill: The Titans’ gameplan up until this recent outing against the Chiefs seemed pretty one-dimensional: Feed Derrick Henry the ball as much as possible. With A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both working through a slew of injuries, it made perfect sense and helped the Titans start the season 4-2. In Week 7 though, Tannehill looked like the guy we’ve grown to respect over the last few seasons. He completed 21-of-27 passes with a touchdown, while also scrambling in for a goalline score. Henry has been outstanding this year, but a 30.2-touch per game pace won’t be sustainable for 17 regular season weeks and playoffs. Tannehill’s upward trajectory has more to do with a clean bill of health from Brown and Jones than anything else. This offseason, the Titans’ moves displayed a commitment to the passing game, which should become more formidable now with their dynamic duo healthy. In the four games that both receivers have been a full-go, they commanded a combined 44.3 percent target share. Brown was pegged as a Three Up guy last week and went on to catch 8-of-9 targets for 133 yards and a score. His apparent progress in this new offense will help elevate Tannehill’s game as well.
Three Down
Mike Davis: After the blazing start of his season, Atlanta fans and fantasy managers alike clamored to see more Cordarelle Patterson. The Falcons coaching staff apparently listened. Patterson’s snap share has increased in three straight weeks: 30%, 59%, and 73%. But Patterson’s increased opportunities aren’t happening without a victim, and that victim is Mike Davis. Not only was Davis out-snapped for the first time in Week 7’s win, but Davis saw his season-low in snaps and touches. Patterson saw 14 carries and five targets. Davis saw four carries and zero targets. Patterson was also much more effective, picking up 4.3 yards per attempt and a touchdown, compared to Davis’ 2.5 yards per attempt. It appears as if there’s a changing of the guard happening in Atlanta, and 30-year-old Patterson is taking over as the team’s lead back. At this point, Davis shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a handcuff. His week-to-week volatility will be nearly impossible to predict as long as Patterson keeps producing.
Allen Robinson: Robinson was close to making the cut as a Three up finalist last week. The writing was on the wall for a big game against the soft Tampa Bay secondary, but Robinson’s efforts came up flat. Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Khalil Herbert all outpaced him in targets, and he tied with Marquise Goodwin for four on the day. There were some fears in the offseason that Robinson would struggle with Justin Fields. The rookie quarterback likes to throw to wide-open receivers, and that’s never been Robinson’s forte. He relies on his size and strength to make contested catches, but Fields isn’t giving him that opportunity. It appears that Fields isn’t going to get Robinson near the 150-target mark we’ve grown so accustomed to. Fields stepped in midway through Week 2’s game because of an injury. Because of that, Fields and Robinson have played a total of 23 quarters together, just less than six games. Robinson’s 17-game pace with Fields as his quarterback is 53 catches for 606 yards. After 305 targets, 2,397 yards, and 13 touchdowns over the last two seasons, Robinson has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football. Unfortunately, given the Bears’ offensive woes and Fields’ struggles, that shouldn’t be expected to change any time soon.
Robby Anderson: Anderson was a hot draft pick for many that anticipated a big season. He led the Panthers in targets last season, and being reunited with his former quarterback made it easy to predict a step forward in production. Through Week 7, it’s clear that D.J. Moore has established himself as Sam Darnold’s clear-cut WR1. Moore is outpacing Anderson 73 to 49. The opportunity is still there for Anderson, who has seen 38 targets over the last four games. Unfortunately, though, he’s only caught 13 of those targets for a total of 101 yards. Last year, A.J. Green was the poster boy for inefficient volume. For comparison, he averaged 5.0 yards per target on a 45.3% catch rate, both the lowest marks among wide receivers all year. Over these last four weeks, Anderson is averaging 2.7 yards per target on a 34.2% catch rate. With that level of obscene inefficiency, expect to see the team start to lean on rookie receiver Terrace Marshall to play a secondary role behind Moore.
