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The Top 10: Week 9

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 9
By Matt Waldman, November 2, 2020

The Top 10: Week 9
Photo: USA Today Sports

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

A good example is the recent James Conner-Benny Snell analysis. The pervading thought after last Monday night was that Snell outplayed James Conner. While Snell earned more playing time, played well, and out-produced Conner, the film didn't support the conclusion that Conner played poorly as much as his offensive line got off to a slow start and he suffered a minor ankle injury that concerned the team.

Snell may earn another opportunity to take the job from Conner as the season progresses but against the Broncos and Texans defenses, Conner did enough to keep his role as the feature back and the non-film narratives did not come to fruition. Based on the process of studying what makes a running back productive, Conner did nothing to lose his role to Snell.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy). Still, this work may help you make wiser decisions that will help your team in the long run.

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 7'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. Media scouts and fantasy analysts nitpicked D.K. Metcalf's athletic ability beyond the point of reason but Metcalf's athletic ability, and his overall game, is one of the hundreds of players throughout NFL history who illustrate that there's a lot more to analyzing the NFL Combine than these people understand.
  2. J.K. Dobbins may not be ready to usurp Mark Ingram when Ingram is healthy, but it's easy to see why he'll eventually be an upgrade to Ingram in this offense.
  3. Lamar Jackson had some bad plays and the best teams have a better understanding of the Baltimore offense, but he's the same player he was last year despite fans of the 5-2 Ravens and fantasy GMs worried that the sky is falling.
  4. Chase Claypool scored against the Ravens but he only caught two passes and JuJu Smith-Schuster earned a lot more work. In last week's Gut Check feature, I showed why this would happen and when it will continue to happen.
  5. This may change in 2021, but Jordan Wilkins is the best back in Indianapolis and he has been since 2019.
  6. Is Marvin Jones' fantasy value on the rise? Even before Kenny Golladay exited the Colts' game with an aggravation of his hip injury, the answer was yes.
  7. Kareem Hunt's work is good teaching tape for learning what top after-contact skills look like in an NFL running back.
  8. Carson Wentz will get a pass for this year's mess in Philadelphia due to injuries, but this vertically-inaccurate and pocket dysfunctional passer doesn't deserve as much of one as he'll get.
  9. Jared Goff and the Rams offense got blitzed out of their own stadium and much of the fault lies with Goff and Sean McVay.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish: Wentz and Goff
    1. Chargers LB Kenneth Murray.
    2. Dallas defense.
    3. Dallas offense.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. D.K. Metcalf is teaching tape about how not to analyze NFL Combine metrics

There is a craft to the act of analysis. We're it often comes up woefully short in football analysis is the NFL Combine. In our society where social media has influenced a maladjusted, all-or-nothing attitude about seemingly everything, it appears that analysis of the NFL Combin is either fanatically all-data or a complete rejection of the event.

I realize this isn't really how it is, but the desire to post eye-catching and clickable content that spawns flamewars in comment sections, message boards, and anywhere that an entity hosting the content can make your participation the commodity, is one of the reasons why the notion that Metcalf's athletic ability wouldn't make him a good NFL wide receiver was ridiculous. I had Metcalf rated as an instant starter in the 2019 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and explained why he was not another Stephen Hill story of an outrageously athletic option with flaws that would render him a bust:

His 20-Shuttle acceleration is 4.5 seconds--a Reserve Tier grade--but the RSP often preaches the value of compensating factors. Metcalf's compensating factors are his violent hands, his powerful frame, and his 4.33-second 40-Yard speed...It's likely that Metcalf will be a star deep threat even if the excuses about him tripping in the acceleration and change-of-direction dkills fall flat. And they do. He's slower and stiffer in short spaces--get over it.

Meltcalf's intensity off the line forces opponents to play off him out of sheer terror of being knocked down, run over, or sprinted past. He'll take advantage of this fear by varying his pacing off the line. Metcalf has successfully baited off-coverage defenders into believing that he's stalk-blocking only to accelerate past them. When he's not pulling this stunt, he accelerates off the line with his pads over his knees and the no-hold-barred approach is enough to keep an upcoming opponent awake at night.

Because defenders give him healthy respect in off-coverage, Metcalf has leveraged that into easier separation on routes breaking bakc to the quarterback. He may not drop his weight with optimal flexibility and he has to gather his steps into breaks, but he will break back ot the ball with intensity...

He may never change direction as quickly as DeAndre Hopkins, but his poor acceleration metrics are similar to Hopkins--and we know how exceptional Hopkins is against press and the catch point. He's one of the most consistent receivers in fantasy football.

This is just a small amount of what I had to write about Metcalf and yet, these specific points about the receiver's game are easy to see. Here's Metcalf gathering his steps on this comeback against Jason Verrett, who has rebounded from injury to return to his status as one of the elite cornerbacks in the NFL, and still winning the route.

This is one of the problems with NFL Combine analysis. If you simply analyze metrics into strictly defined columns and don't consider the entire whole of a player's game, you're more apt to disqualify players who could be tremendous assets for your system, not to mention discount them because you don't know how to look at the number outside the spreadsheet cell and determine if there are compensating factors that actually have football value.

Analytics-dominant writers and consultants for the league went down this dead-end road with a minimum height and weight requirement for wide receiver several years ago. And it's such an easy heuristic to dismiss if they took the time to understand how the wide receiver position works by studying the game a little more before returning to the spreadsheets.

A player like Metcalf doesn't have to drop his weight and stop-start with the suddenness of a slot receiver to win in the NFL any more than a running back like Dalvin Cook doesn't—and the analytics crowd reamed his prospects due to sub-par NFL Combine metrics that didn't accurately reflect how his game works. Cook was arguably the safest prospect at the position in a loaded class—that's what I wrote in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio—but that wasn't the consensus view among those who don't know how to incorporate the craft football into the analysis of data.

Speaking again of curvilinear movers, here's Metcalf bending—not cutting—bending his way around multiple defenders. Do they grade curvilinear movement at the NFL Combine? Cook and his four-touchdown weekend against the Packers will be the first to tell you they don't.

Remember that idea of compensating factors mentioned earlier? Here's Metcalf using craft to earn separation on this play-action look in the red zone and then make a catch of incredibly underrated difficulty against tight coverage.

Metcalf plays with the best vertical-throwing quarterback in football and, when its backs are healthy, an excellent ground game that sets up play-action. This is a perfect fit for Metcalf and it doesn't mean because this is the perfect fit that there aren't 15-20 other teams in the NFL where he wouldn't be a top producer.

This winter, when it's inevitable that you read or listen to someone's awful metric score from some NFL Combine event, please take some time to take a deeper look if it's a player who performed well on tape. You may help your fantasy prospects short-term and long-term.

2. Why J.K. Dobbins will eventually be a long-term upgrade for the Ravens run game

I've always been a Mark Ingram fan. He's a smart, versatile, and physical running back who was the perfect fit for the Ravens last year. He's Gus Edwards with nuance.

One thing Ingram never had was fear-inducing suddenness and speed and it's what Dobbins brings to the Ravens.

Ingram is probably still better versed in the Ravens' pass protection scheme, but Dobbins is showing some skill in this area that is promising for his long-term development as the team's lead back.

When Dobbins proves too good to take off the field as the lead back, we'll begin to see with even greater frequency how much his perimeter-stretching speed will create chasms up the middle for Lamar Jackson.

The fact that Dobbins is the first runner to earn more than 80 yards on the Steelers this year—that list includes Miles Sanders, Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, and Derrick Henry—it's worth emphasizing that Dobbins is close to becoming an NFL, and fantasy, starter.

3. The Sky Is Falling—Week 8 Edition: Lamar Jackson GMs and Ravens fans

I post a lot on Twitter. However, I don't spend a lot of time on it every day, except for Sundays and Monday mornings. And I have determined from Twitter that the spirit of reactionary fandom that was a long-term part of Cowboys fans has been sucked out of Dallas and sent to Baltimore.

When the Cowboys had a good team, they freaked out four times a year about Dak Prescott not being good enough whenever he wasn't less than excellent. after this weekend, it appears this is how Ravens fans feel about their 5-2 team. However, because this team lost to the most complete team in the NFL (hint...Pittsburgh) and the league's most dangerous offense (hint...Kansas City), you'd think Lamar Jackson was regressing.

Of course, the Steelers-Ravens rivalry is the most intense in pro football and this reactionary thinking is common with football rivalries. Remember, I live in SEC territory and worked at the University of Georgia for a decade. The Bulldog faithful would sell their souls for a victory against Alabama and many of them have in the attempt to make it happen.

Jackson threw two interceptions and fumbled twice against the Steelers. He was also one pass away from a last-second comeback and the sixth-ranked fantasy passer of the week against the best defense in the NFL. Despite placing outside the top-12 in fantasy rankings at his position, if you rank Jackson based on points per game, he's QB12 and has a favorable fantasy schedule.

Here are the teams in order and their fantasy ranking for points allowed to quarterbacks. The higher the ranking, the fewer points being given up to quarterbacks.

Team Rank
Ind 30th
NE 28th*
Ten 9th
Pit 24th
Dal 19th*
Cle 8th
Jac 3rd
NYG 23rd*

*The Patriots, Cowboys, and Giants are porous against the run, which means that teams usually don't have to throw as much which may artificially inflate the value of these units against quarterbacks. It also is a favorable point for Jackson's prospects.

Considering that Jackson posted near-elite fantasy production against the Steelers offense, I wouldn't be worried about Colts next week, either. The turnovers may be a concern, but one of Jackson's fumbles was inconsequential to the outcome of a fourth-down attempt where the Steelers' nose tackle made a great play to stop the conversion attempt before the fumble occurred.

Jackson's other turnovers aren't symptomatic of a regression in his development as much as they were good plays by the Steelers defense. This first-half interception is a good example of the linebacker not buying a good look-off from Jackson.

Should Jackson know the details of the coverage enough to understand if this linebacker would be in a position to bite on a look-off? The simple answer is, yes. The nuanced answer is there are so many coverage variations in the NFL game that expecting mastery of them from a third-year player is unrealistic, and the occasional lapse is bound to happen.

This is different than a player like Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, or Carson Wentz, who have earned criticism in this feature and elsewhere for lacking manipulation, short-circuiting under pressure, or failing to see clear answers.

Jackson's first fumble was also a play where he did a lot well but the effort from Bud Dupree was the difference and deserves a little more credit for the play than Jackson deserves blame.

Considering that Jackson repeatedly showed excellent timing under pressure and in the red zone in this game, it's why this play isn't the indication of some regression in Jackson's development.

Jackson made plays in this game that few quarterbacks can make in the NFL. Although one of them the officials nullified, most counted.

If someone thinks they are selling high on Lamar Jackson this week and gives you an offer, take it. If you need a quarterback who can deliver top-five production down the stretch, see if your league's GM of Jackson is open to dealing him for the reactionary rationale I'm seeing elsewhere.

4. Chase Claypool is limited again

Last week, I penned a feature about the likelihood of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster Trading Places in terms of fantasy value. The underlying logic behind this idea has to do with the NFL making adjustments to good young players once they have 4-6 weeks of tape on these players.

Every year we see opponents shut down players on hot streaks and within the span of 3-5 weeks, either those players find a solution to these new problems and return to weekly prominence, become match-up plays against defenses that lack the personnel or scheming to stop their strengths, or their flaws have been so exposed that they cannot overcome them without an offseason of hard work.

I'm betting that Claypool becomes a match-up play with enough low-end volatility that if you have a strong receiving corps, the rookie is worth selling at a profit that can help you elsewhere. Based on the Titans' game plan and the Ravens' execution of its defense of Claypool, I'm convinced Claypool's fantasy WR1 value is a thing of the past for 2020.

As you can see, the Titans gave Claypool the highest priority of focus compared to opponents during the first five weeks of the year. Zones are tighter and help is heading to Claypool as the priority. Man-to-man defenders are playing him tighter and getting more physical.

The Ravens were no different this weekend.

Although Claypool scored on Sunday, it was a well-schemed play against a Ravens zone. If Claypool will be dependent on these high-leverage looks, his fantasy value will take a hit.

5. Jordan Wilkins is the best back on the Colts' depth chart

Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines are the fastest backs on the Colts' roster. Jonathan Taylor is the strongest and the most promising long-term. But for the past 2-3 years, Jordan Wilkins is the best pure running back on the team.

Mack needed two years to figure out how to run zone plays. Hines is a draw-play runner and satellite back. Taylor could become an all-around stud, but between the good decisions he's making, are confounding choices of immaturity and ignorance that can be cleaned up with an offseason dedicated to studying the intricacies of blocking schemes and development of advanced footwork.

Right now, Wilkins is the most refined runner between the tackles. After his 100 yards from scrimmage against the Lions, it's worth wondering if the Colts are beginning to see the same thing. Yes, Philip Rivers told the media that Taylor "got nicked up," but he saw two touches in the early and middle of the fourth quarter, so it's unlikely serious.

I am serious that Wilkins is worth entertaining as an addition to your re-draft rosters, despite a tough matchup with the Ravens next week. Wilkins has been a favorite of mine since studying him at Ole Miss and earning yards against defenses that overmatch his offensive line has been a thing he's done since his days of facing off with the likes of Alabama.

Wilkins succeeds because he has a terrific understanding of the blocking scheme, dynamic footwork, good contact-balance, and he sees the field better than most NFL starters. What he lacked as a collegian was breakaway speed and consistent effort as a pass protector.

This is a refined runner with skills to deliver in a similar way that Mike Davis could deliver as a quality fantasy starter in Christian McCaffrey's stead.

If the Colts staff decides that Wilkins is an asset that they can't keep on the bench, you could have a league-winning, midseason addition from Wilkins behind this excellent offensive line. Whether Indianapolis can overcome its draft capital bias for Taylor this year, and for more than 1-2 games, is the big question no one but the Colts can answer.

6. The Marvin Jones Re-Emergence Tour kicked off in Week 7

Jones has been a top-15 PPR receiver for the past two weeks. While the week was against the lowly Falcons, Jones scored twice (and nearly three times) against a Colts defense that may not be as tough as its stats but is still formidable enough to take notice.

This is especially true when also considering that the Lions lost Kenny Golladay midway through the game with an aggravation of his hip injury. Golladay is a tough and physical football player, but he's walking wounded at this point.

I don't need to show you why Jones is capable of top-15 production. I've written about him for years and the industry has finally established that potential for his game a few years ago.

Jones' early-season woes were due to an injury. Matt Patricia and the Mid-West branch of the Patriots aren't forthcoming about injuries and Jones is the type of player to slog through impediments that might keep other players on the bench. Two weeks ago, Jones began practicing without limitation and the results are showing on the field.

If you need a buy-low or a waiver-wire reclamation worth taking a chance on, Jones is your receiver.

7. Kareem Hunt is teaching tape for those wishing to learn about yards after contact

Micro movements is a term that former RSP writer J. Moyer and I have used frequently to describe the important movements running backs use to avoid and/or break-through contact that can be imperceptible to the casual fan, but they are conscious decisions of the player to maximize their efforts. Another good example of micro-movements on display came this weekend from Kareem Hunt.

In addition to learning about the difference between gap- and zone-blocking, understand how a runner sets up these blocking schemes with his reads and footwork, and minimizing the value of the 40-yard dash while upgrading the value of the shuttle drills, identifying and understanding micro-movements will help you develop a much stronger understanding of what makes a good NFL running back.

Despite the fact that he's on a team with a bigger, stronger, faster, and even savvier player at this position, Hunt is an excellent running back and well worth using as teaching tape to develop a better understanding of the position for your fantasy drafts.

8. Carson Wentz is all heart

Some people say the most important thing a fighter can have is heart. Frankie'd say: Show me a fighter who has nothing but heart and I'll show you a man waiting for a beating.

-Eddie Scrap-Iron Dupris (Million Dollar Baby)


Carson Wentz will get a pass for 2020, but he shouldn't. Blessed with awkward pocket movement and poor footwork setups into his stance, shoddy vertical accuracy that can be hidden with his scrambling and lowering the roof of the range the team expects him to throw the ball, and a never-say-die attitude on a player that's both endearing and beyond frustrating, Wentz is the example of a quarterback who is much better in fantasy sports than he is in the reality of the game.

As long as you have the clarity to understand how Wentz's flaws could undermine his career from the standpoint of injury or eventual team exasperation that leads to a bench, start him while you've got him. However, be sure you know that he's not a complete quarterback and it makes him vulnerable to awful play that is completely on him and has nothing to do with the paucity of surrounding talent this year.

If you can trade Wentz and get Lamar Jackson, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Even if Wentz winds up outscoring Jackson or Jackson suffers an injury and Wentz doesn't, Wentz does more on the field that puts him at risk for bad play and injury than Jackson and I can live with that outcome.

9. Miami blitzed Jared Goff and Sean McVay out of the Rams' stadium

If there's a coach in the NFL more in love with how he does things than Sean McVay, I don't know who it is. Fortunately, for McVay, he's had enough success doing things his specific way that he's still heading an NFL team.

Sometimes what we consider genius at first blush can bite us in the hind parts later. For example, McVay walking into the Super Bowl against a Bill Belichick team with an offensive gameplan that was simplistic and lacking any tweaks to account for a defense that was prepared to intellectually stifle what it saw on film.

Or say, McVay's over-attachment to the screen game that contributed to a second-half flop against the Bills because the Rams couldn't imagine that Buffalo (and several other teams) could sniff-out the play and all its variations. He might as well have been a seven-year-old repeatedly failing to trick a buddy with variations of the same tactic while introducing each tactic with, "I betcha won't figure this out."

And what about the wide zone run game that team after team stifled last year with a Tite defensive look and front uncommon for the NFL and McVay refused to adjust until well after the half-way point of the year? Is it just me, or does anyone else see a pattern of inflexibility from the young genius?

Then there's the simplistic notion that McVay as the voice in Jared Goff's headset makes him the puppet master pulling the strings in of his dummy quarterback. Even if the Rams use a limited number of plays with similar-looking alignments to confuse opponents and help the quarterback, there's only so much McVay can do pre-snap to help Goff.

And after watching Miami blitz Goff, McVay, and the Rams off its home field in a blow-out victory, it begs the question: Is McVay's headset puppeteering that accelerated the Rams offense short-term, unintentionally stunting Goff's development pre- and post-snap quarterbacking long-term?

Goff displayed promising pocket management at Cal. He was awful against Miami yesterday. While some of it was on teammates, most of it was Goff mismanaging the game.

While Goff and Jackson are in the same tier as quarterbacks ranked outside the top 12 at the position with the team and scheme to make a move upward down the stretch but opponents seem to have figured out aspects of their schemes and they're presenting more challenges, Jackson and his staff seem better equipped to address the challenges.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 8

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: You mean, in addition to Goff, Wentz, and the Cowboys defense?

I'll roll with rookie linebacker Kenneth Murray, who takes his run-and-hit style of play to the nth degree. Murray has been known to experience lapses with his vision and decision-making. This week, the Broncos exploited Murray for a pair of big runs that helped make a difference in Denver's comeback victory.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Analysis Saquon Barkley Miles Boykin Malcolm Brown Marquise Brown Chase Claypool James Conner Dalvin Cook Mike Davis J.K. Dobbins Bud Dupree Devin Duvernay Gus Edwards Jared Goff Kenny Golladay Melvin Gordon III Derrick Henry Nyheim Hines DeAndre Hopkins Kareem Hunt Mark Ingram II Lamar Jackson Marvin Jones Jr Phillip Lindsay Marlon Mack Baker Mayfield Christian McCaffrey DK Metcalf Kenneth Murray Jr. Marcus Peters Dak Prescott Miles Sanders JuJu Smith-Schuster Benny Snell Jr. Jonathan Taylor Jason Verrett Carson Wentz Jordan Wilkins

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