The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
OVERLAP
Team #1: 150.90 points, DID cash
Team #2: 127.24 points, did NOT cash
Alexander Mattison | $7,200 | 78-percent rostered | 4.0 DraftKings points
After Dalvin Cook pulled his groin in Week 5 against the Seattle Seahawks, Alexander Mattison immediately stepped into the bell-cow starting role that Cook vacated. Although Mattison only played 49-percent of Minnesota's offensive snaps, he still tallied 20 carries and 3 receptions in the game. DraftKings recognized the change in Mattison's role on the Vikings and increased his price to $7.2k for Week 6's main slate of games, but this price tag still fell short of what an efficient number for him would have been in this matchup. Despite the rapid price increase, the sharpest NFL DFS cash players still deemed Mattison to be underpriced, leading 78-percent of entrants into the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. Mattison was underpriced thanks to a combination of Minnesota's propensity to rely heavily upon one bell-cow running back as well as the stellar matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Throughout Mike Zimmer's tenure as the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings, the team has typically concentrated the majority of its volume in the backfield with one player, making whoever is in as the team's starting running back a viable fantasy option. Additionally, Week 6 projected to be an especially soft matchup for Minnesota's rushing attack against Atlanta. The Vikings entered this matchup as 3.5-point favorites over the Falcons, with a projected team total of over 28 points, the 3rd-highest mark on the main slate of games. As favorites, the Vikings, an already run-heavy offense, were expected to increase their total rushing volume even more. Overall, Alexander Mattison projected to be one of the strongest running back options on the slate due to the soft matchup against the Atlanta Falcons' struggling defense, an expectedly favorable game script, and his role as the projected bell-cow of a run-heavy offensive attack. At the end of the day, Mattison fell short of expectations, mustering only 4.0 DraftKings points on the day while the Vikings were pummeled by the previously-winless Atlanta Falcons. In an unexpected game script, Mattison's playing time and rushing volume were impacted more than anything else, leading him to disappoint fantasy players across the board. Overall, however, the process behind building a cash-game lineup around Minnesota's young replacement running back was sound, and the results of this past weekend should not scare players away from similar situations down the line.
Why Alexander Mattison?
- Replacement running back stepped into a bell-cow role, and his price increase did not account for the impressive volume he projected for in a run-heavy offense.
- His team was favored and projected to score the third-most points on the slate, leading fantasy players to believe that there would be no shortage of fantasy production to go around.
- A soft matchup against the Atlanta Falcons' defense that ranked 28th in the NFL in DVOA allowed bolstered projections for the entire Minnesota offense.
Kenny Golladay | $6,200 | 66-percent rostered | 17.50 DraftKings points
After missing the first two weeks of the 2020 season, Kenny Golladay has not missed a beat since returning to the Detroit Lions' starting lineup. Since his return, Golladay has scored no less than 16.0 DraftKings points in any game, and his underlying involvement numbers would lead us to believe that this level of production is here to stay. Across Golladay's first two games this season, nearly one-quarter of the total pass attempts in Detroit's offense went in his direction. This volume, coupled with a clash with the Jacksonville Jaguars' league-worst pass defense, made Golladay an elite wide receiver option to build cash-game lineups around last weekend. The Detroit Lions entered this matchup with an implied team total of 28 points, the 4th-highest number on the DraftKings main slate of games. In a neutral matchup, this alone would bode well for a receiver of Golladay's caliber. In Week 6, however, Golladay had one of the best matchups in the league, taking on the Jaguars' defense, which ranks dead-last in the NFL in passing DVOA and net-yards-per-attempt allowed. Across Jacksonville's first 5 games, the team allowed 4 opposing quarterbacks to either throw for 300 yards or 4 scores, leading us to believe that Matt Stafford, Kenny Golladay, and the rest of the Lions' aerial attack would have a field day against them in Week 6. When the dust settled, Golladay surpassed 100 receiving yards for the first time this season and posted a respectable tally of 17.50 DraftKings points for the 66-percent of players that rostered him in the GIANT $1,060 50-50.
Why Kenny Golladay?
- As the number-one receiver on a team with the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate, Golladay's floor of production was already substantial to start.
- A matchup with the worst secondary in the NFL, which has allowed highly-efficient passing performances and gaudy totals across its first five outings, made Golladay jump off the page as one of the top plays on the slate.
- FootballGuys' consensus projections had Golladay with the second-highest h-value score on the slate at the wide receiver position, which has consistently signaled sharp cash-game options across positions all season.
A.J. Brown | $5,600 | 64-percent rostered | 22.60 DraftKings points
Much like Kenny Golladay, A.J. Brown missed a handful of games before pricing for the Week 6 main slate of games was posted, leading the DraftKings pricing algorithm to underestimate how involved he would be in Tennessee's offensive attack. After an impressive rookie campaign, Brown saw 8 targets in his 2020 debut before he exited the game due to injury. Then, after sitting out Weeks 2, 3, and 4 (one of which ended up being a bye week for the Titans,) Brown re-emerged as the team's clear-cut number-one pass-catcher on Tuesday Night Football in Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills. Brown hauled in 7 out of his 9 targets on the night, registering 82 yards and a score against the Buffalo Bills. However, by the time that matchup wrapped up, DraftKings had already posted the player pool and pricing for Week 6, setting Brown's price at just $5,600. In short, $5,600 is far too cheap for a player of A.J. Brown's caliber, especially in a soft matchup against the Houston Texans' porous defense. Brown's involvement in Tennessee's passing attack is secure, as he posted a 0.81 WOPR (a metric that measures the opportunity a wide receiver has to score within his team's offense based on his market share of team targets and total air yards), the 11th-highest mark in the league, in his first game back from injury. Additionally, Houston's defense is one of the worst in the NFL this season, ranking 28th in total DVOA allowed and 20th in DVOA allowed against the pass. The stars aligned for A.J. Brown to erupt at a modest price tag in Week 6, and he came through for the 64-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings by finding the end zone twice en-route to a 22.60-point performance.
Why A.J. Brown?
- Following an extended absence, Brown was far too cheap for a player with his combination of talent and volume within Tennessee's aerial attack.
- Brown was underpriced to the point that a neutral matchup would have been enough to make him a strong cash-game option. A matchup with the Houston Texans' defense, one of the worst in the NFL, made Brown an elite player to build cash-game lineups around.
Myles Gaskin | $5,400 | 40-percent-rostered | 16.60 DraftKings points
Below, in bold and italics, is last week's analysis used to project Myles Gaskin as the Sharp Play for the week.
- The Miami Dolphins enter Week 6 fresh off a stunning upset victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Last weekend, the Dolphins flew across the country and belittled last season's most dominant defense by lighting up the scoreboard for 43 points en-route to a 26-point win against the 49ers. Myles Gaskin, a second-year player from the University of Washington, has quickly emerged as Miami's number-one running back this season. Although he started the season listed third on the team's depth chart behind Matt Breida and Jordan Howard, Gaskin has played at least 63-percent of Miami's offensive snaps in every game this year. Additionally, across the team's two victories, Gaskin averages 19 carries-per-game, far more than what is typically expected from a $5,400 player on DraftKings. The former-All-Pac-12 selection is also a respectable contributor through the air for Miami, as he has tallied at least 4 targets and at least 5.2 DraftKings points through the air in each of Miami's first 5 games. This weekend, with the Miami Dolphins favored by eight points over the New York Jets, we can expect Myles Gaskin to continue to play a sizable role in the team's offense, both on the ground and in the passing game. At the pedestrian price tag of only $5,400, Gaskin is as reliable of a salary-saving option as you will find on this weekend's slate, and he should be expected to appear in the majority of sharp NFL DFS cash-game lineups here in Week 6.
Why Myles Gaskin?
- Miami's favored running back option in all situations projected for increased rushing volume against the New York Jets, where the Dolphins were favored by nearly 10 points.
- Gaskin's receiving volume provided safety in case of an unexpected game script.
- At only $5,400, Gaskin's combination of a soft matchup, increased expected rushing volume, and receiving volume made him the safest and strongest salary-saving running back on the slate.
Projected Sharp Play: Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin | $5,800 | vs. Dallas
This weekend, consider starting all cash-game lineups with Terry "F1" McLaurin locked-into a wide receiver spot at only $5,800. McLaurin's early-season production with Dwayne Haskins was impressive, but since the quarterback change in Washington, many have worried that the lack of chemistry between McLaurin and the team's replacement quarterbacks would limit his production. Now, after two games without Haskins, McLaurin's college quarterback, leading Washington's offense, it is clear that McLaurin's receiving volume is not going anywhere. Last weekend, in the first full game that Kyle Allen has played for the Washington Football Team, he targeted McLaurin 11 times, connecting on 7 of them for 74 yards on the afternoon. At times, it seemed that Allen was not even considering throwing the ball to anyone else on the field, regardless of what the defense threw at him. Overall, F1's WOPR of 0.71 was the 11th-highest mark on the week and the 7th-highest amongst players who saw 10+ targets on the week. Now, inexplicably, Washington's number-one receiver enters this weekend's main slate as the 19th-highest-priced wide receiver. On top of this remarkable volume, McLaurin faces off with the Dallas Cowboys' horrific defense in Week 7. Through 6 games, the Cowboys rank 21st in DVOA allowed against the pass and 28th in DVOA allowed overall on the defensive side of the football. Dallas has shown no signs of life on defense thus far this season, and now, following reports of discontent amongst players and frustration with the newly-hired coaching staff, there is reason to believe things could get worse from here. In total, Terry McLaurin is by far the best receiving option on the Washington Football Team's roster, which leads to massive volume on a weekly basis. Despite the quarterback change that took place two weeks ago, McLaurin's role and fantasy value within this offense remain unchanged. At just $5,800 on DraftKings this weekend, build your cash-game lineups around F1 and reap the rewards, much like the majority of sharps are likely to do.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article -- or with any fantasy football questions you may have for this upcoming week!