Plant Your Flag, Team Wins

Photo: USA Today Sports

Based around DraftKings' Over/Under Team Win Totals, we asked our staff members to make a call on an NFL team. Who will surprise - either good or bad? Why?

Jeff Pasquino

The Raiders - under 7

The Las Vegas will finish second in the AFC West and be a Wild Card playoff team with a 9-7 record.

Derek Carr threw for 4,000 yards last season without anything close to a go-to wide receiver. Both of his top wideouts (Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow) cobbled together a little more than 600 yards receiving each - which is a paltry 40 yards per game. After adding Henry Ruggs III and improving the defense, the Raiders should be one step closer to the postseason after a respectable 7-9 2019 campaign that was scarred early by the fiasco surrounding Antonio Brown.

The Raiders would have been a lock in my book for a playoff spot in their new Las Vegas home in a normal environment, but given that visiting teams are more likely to have a strict lockdown policy on the road this year and with no home fans, the Raiders will have much less of a home-field advantage. Even so, aside from two games with Kansas City (a team that the Raiders seem to always rise up to the occasion for), the second spot in the AFC West is wide open. Denver is working on a new offense with Drew Lock and Melvin Gordon while the Chargers are exploring the future without Philip Rivers under center for the first time in 15 years. A second-place finish in the AFC West with one of the easier NFL schedules for 2020 https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/06/raiders-get-breather-with-strength-of-schedule-among-nfls-easiest-in-2020/ is well within their grasp, as is a 4-2 divisional record. Throw in a 2-2 record against the AFC East with the weakest Patriot squad in years, and another 2-2 result against the NFC South (likeliest wins are over Atlanta and Carolina). The final two games (at CLE, vs. Indy) could also be wins, but that adds up to a 10-6 record. I will go one game lower and put Last Vegas at 9-7. It will likely be a very rough start with a tough first five games after Week 1 (at Carolina, then vs. NO, at NE, vs BUF and finally at KC before the Week 6 bye). Even if they start at 1-4, the schedule gets much better after their break and the Raiders will go on a second-half run, with John Gruden’s team making one more step forward to reaffirming the team’s Commitment to Excellence.

Sigmund Bloom

I'll take the Jets - under 6.5

How are the Jets going to sniff 7 wins? I know they did it last year, but two of those wins were against Washington and the Giants, this year they draw the NFC West, which doesn't have a team nearly as weak as the 2019 Washington and Giants teams. They got one win against a Bills team that had nothing to play for in Week 17. They got one win against the Steelers and the worst quarterback play in the league.

The offensive line is a mess. The Jets traded their best defensive player and their other best defensive player opted out of the season. Jeff Smith or Chris Hogan is likely to start Week 1 at wide receiver.

Consider the Jets neck and neck with the Jaguars and Panthers as your favorite to have the #1 pick next year.

Jeff Pasquino

I have to agree with Sigmund on the Jets here, good call.

Jeff Tefertiller

The Jets are a great pick, Sigmund. One other I think who is a few games too high is Cleveland (8.5). The only way the Browns even win 8 is if Baker Mayfield is phenomenal ... something I doubt in 2020.

Let's take a quick look at the schedule:

• Week 1 - at Ravens
• Week 2 - Bengals
• Week 3 - Washington
• Week 4 - at Cowboys
• Week 5 - Colts
• Week 6 - at Steelers
• Week 7 - at Bengals
• Week 8 - Raiders
• Week 10 - Texans
• Week 11 - Eagles
• Week 12 - at Jaguars
• Week 13 - at Titans
• Week 14 - Ravens
• Week 15 - at Giants
• Week 16 - at Jets
• Week 17 - Steelers

If the Browns lost the bolded and win the rest, it is still only 8 wins. They could lose multiple non-bolded games, too.

Jeff Pasquino

If I may, I also think that Miami is going to top that 6.5 mark.

• New England is the weakest they have been in more than a decade
• On paper, they have one of the most difficult schedules, but they also have a good number of winnable games.
• There seems to be a bias against Miami in these numbers based on their dismal outlook from a year ago.

Just from a pure math perspective, I see 7-8 wins on the schedule. By my count, they face seven teams that are predicted to win fewer than eight games:

• Jacksonville
• at Denver
• LA Chargers
• NY Jets (twice)
• Cincinnati
• at Las Vegas

Running the table for the games listed above gives seven wins.

They also play the division very tough historically, so a win against Buffalo or New England would not surprise me at all.

Devin Knotts

Cleveland Under 8.5

My largest position this offseason is the Browns under 8.5 and would bet it all the way down to under 6.5.

I see this team as a 6-10 team this season and possibly worse as they may have the worst defense in the NFL. This was a team last season that allowed 5.1 yards-per-carry and the third-most rushing yards in the NFL last season. So what did they do to fix it? They let Joe Schobert and Christian Kirksey leave to the Jaguars and Packers leaving Mack Wilson as their only returning starter last year. Mack Wilson looks like he will miss the season with an injury as does Grant Delpit who was expected to be a run-stopping safety. This is a defense that is going to rely heavily on their offense to outscore people and is built to stop the pass, but the problem is that Baker Mayfield and company have not shown the ability to consistently move the ball without turnovers as Mayfield was second in the NFL last season with 21 interceptions.

Jeff Haseley

I'm going with Green Bay over 8.5.

The Packers won 13 games last year and Davante Adams missed four games. Their defense has improved (8th in touchdowns allowed, 9th in points allowed last year). Matt LaFleur proved he belongs as an NFL head coach. Winning nine games against their division (CHI, DET, MIN) plus the AFC South and NFC South isn't that daunting a task given that games will have zero or limited home-field advantage. When the chips are on the table and the team needs late-season wins, Aaron Rodgers comes through time and time again. The Packers have an easier schedule in the second half of the season. If they can get one or two wins on the road at Minnesota, Houston, New Orleans or Tampa Bay early in the season, they'll have a good chance to reach nine wins.

Jason Wood

Dallas over 9.5 games

As an Eagles season ticket holder, it pains me to say this but Dallas is going to compete for the Lombardi Trophy this year. It's been 20 years since Dallas was really a contender, but the team finally has all the pieces in place to get over the hump. The offensive line, while not as elite as it was a few years ago, is still among the league's best. Dak Prescott is one of the five or six best quarterbacks in the league and gets BY FAR the best receiving corps of his career this year. Speaking of receivers, Amari Cooper is a legitimate No. 1. Michael Gallup was better than Cooper last year. Oh, and they drafted CeeDee Lamb -- the best rookie receiver in a great class -- and he already looks like a veteran starter. Blake Jarwin is an X-factor, but he's answered all the tests in camp. We haven't even mentioned Ezekiel Elliott, the league's best power back (all apologies to Derrick Henry).

Now let's speak about the defense. This is where the oddsmakers have erred. Dallas' 9.5 games is primarily based on optimism for the offense. But the defense is considered less-than-stellar by many analysts, yet it could be elite. Sure, Gerald McCoy got hurt, but the Cowboys weren't expecting All Pro play from the aging veteran anyway. If second-year Trysten Hill can carry into Week 1 what we've seen in training camp, he'll be as good as McCoy would've been, and is paired with proven veteran Dontari Poe. Dallas lost Robert Quinn and his 11.5 sacks, but added back Everson Griffen -- who is a better two-way player than Quinn -- and appears to have hit the free-agent lottery with the Aldon Smith signing. They'll pair with DeMarcus Lawrence to give the team an enviable edge rush. We haven't talked about the elite linebacking corps, yet -- but they're among the NFC's best. And while the secondary could be the team's Achilles heel, there are young players turning heads in camp.

Last but not least, new head coach Mike McCarthy has a championship pedigree, a long history of elite offensive production, and seems focused and more mature in his second NFL stint.

David Larkin

Pittsburgh Steelers over 9 wins

Mike Tomlin is entering his 14th season as Steelers head coach. During his reign, the team has failed to reach the nine-win mark only three times, and all of those were 8-8 seasons. Keep in mind the latest 8-8 season - 2019 - featured a cavalcade of ineptitude at quarterback and that despite the many obstacles facing the team, they were 8-5 at one point.

To put it bluntly, if the Steelers were a stock they would be one of the safest ones out there, year on year delivering value. The concerns over Ben Roethlisberger's return are valid considering his advancing years, and perhaps the insane defensive production of 2019 is unsustainable, but this is a rock-solid roster with a reasonable schedule to navigate.

Even passable quarterback play in 2019 would have given the Steelers a chance to reach nine wins and perhaps sneak into the playoffs. In a pandemic-hit season, continuity - be it on the offensive line (check), defense, or roster-wide - will be the secret sauce to getting teams over the bump.

The Steelers have that in spades and, if you use history as your guide, represent one of the best bang for your buck investments in 2020.

Chad Parsons

Buffalo Bills over 8.5 Wins

With the Patriots likely to take a step back and neither of the Dolphins and Jets particularly appealing for a divisional challenge, the AFC East is more available to the Bills than in recent years. The Bills defense is the stalwart of the team, good enough for 5-6 wins alone. However, the offense is better equipped to add a few wins than previous iterations. Stefon Diggs was a major addition, John Brown is one of the more underrated wide receivers in the NFL, Cole Beasley is a consistent chain-mover, and the combination of Devin Singletary and Zack Moss form a thunder-and-lightning committee in the backfield. I see 10+ wins and a divisional title for the playoff-bound Bills.

Matt Bitonti

To add another Jets factoid they have to travel 31000 miles this year. last year they did not leave the east coast, this year they have 3 west coast swings. It's good that some of these places won't have fans but it's a ton of travel for any team.

Andrew Garda

Yipes.

Given that much travel, I definitely take the under. The luck they have, the whole offense might get COVID

Then again, given how the offense looks...

Clayton Gray

Chicago over 7.5 wins. Way over.

While losing Eddie Goldman to an opt-out isn't good, the defense will be better this season with a healthy Akiem Hicks. They are easily the best defense in the division. On offense, the quarterback play will improve as well as either Mitchell Trubisky will be competent or he'll get replaced by Nick Foles.

Detroit should improve with a healthy Matthew Stafford, but they have a long way to go before they'll challenge for the division. The Packers and Vikings arguably are in worse shape compared to 2019.

Chicago will take the NFC North with 11 wins.

Editor's Note: The above was submitted before David Montgomery suffered a groin injury. Clayton chose to stick with this call.

Will Grant

I love Clayton - I really do - but I think the exact opposite is true. I think the Bears are going to struggle to win 6 games this year.

Their road schedule is tough - with the Lions, Panthers, and Jaguars being the easiest road games for them this season. Their non-division home games are against teams like Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay.

Their non-Division games are against the AFC and NFC South - two divisions that could have four playoff teams between them. The Bears running game also took a hit with David Montgomery this week and their running game wasn't scaring anyone before that. Without a solid summer / pre-season, the Mitch Trubisky - Nick Foles controversy will spill into the regular season, making things even more difficult to sort out.

I'll happily take the under on Bears at 7.5 this season.

Andy Hicks

Seattle - over 9.5 Wins

Looking at the schedule and the NFC West teams have a schedule advantage this year if you believe, like I do, that the AFC East and the NFC East divisions are weak.

I will choose Seattle, although Arizona and the Rams with a lower O/U were tempting.

• Week 1 - at Atlanta
• Week 2 - New England
• Week 3 - Dallas
• Week 4 - at Miami
• Week 5 - Minnesota
• Week 7 - at Arizona
• Week 8 - San Francisco
• Week 9 - at Buffalo
• Week 10 - at LA Rams
• Week 11 - Arizona
• Week 12 - at Philadelphia
• Week 13 - NY Giants
• Week 14 - NY Jets
• Week 15 - at Washington
• Week 16 - LA Rams
• Week 17 - at San Francisco

Seattle has a reasonably soft away schedule and their tougher games are at home where they have a strong advantage. Their first four home games are definitely a challenge with the Patriots, Cowboys, Vikings and 49ers coming to visit, but if they can escape these 2-2 or better and play solidly on the road then their run home should easily see them exceed 10 wins, health notwithstanding.

Phil Alexander

Detroit - under 6.5

Matt Patricia has yet to reach seven wins in a season as a head coach, which makes the Lions 6.5-win line a curious one. For what it's worth, Patricia has the best odds of becoming the first coach to get fired this season (+300). Everyone's favorite punching bag, Adam Gase, is third at +800 for some context.

Detroit should have Matthew Stafford healthy for the entire season, which is probably good enough to get them to six wins. But unfortunately for the Lions, Stafford can't help on defense.

Last year, Detroit ranked 31st in total yards allowed, including a league-worst 4,551 yards through the air. The Lions' secondary added depth this year, despite the loss of star cornerback Darius Slay. But their pass-rush, which tied for 31st in sacks in 2019, is once again underwhelming on paper.

The schedule has winnable games against Jacksonville, Carolina, and Washington, but otherwise, there aren't any games that look like obvious Detroit wins. Betting against Patricia succeeding seems like an easy play.

Andrew Davenport

I'm going with the Steelers here, over 9 wins. I believe I may have been the only staffer to take Pittsburgh to win the AFC North back in the divisional previews and I'm sticking to my guns here.

There is understandable concern over Ben Roethlisberger's health heading into the season. He is another year older and is coming off of elbow surgery. But the hidden benefit to him playing just 1.5 games in 2019 is that the rest of his body should be rested and rejuvenated for him to have another solid year for Pittsburgh. It would be one thing to be nervous about Roethlisberger if the Steelers had shut him down at any point during his comeback, or if there were reports of swelling or pain to indicate he is struggling. But the reports have been continuous and consistent: Ben feels great and he's spinning it like before surgery.

So the issue comes down to the combination of their defense and their schedule. The defense, after Minkah Fitzpatrick got to town, was one of the best, if not the best in the league. Their combination of pass rush and strong secondary is hard to top. Their signing of cornerback Steven Nelson before last year was underrated, and then when they added Fitzpatrick things took off. How else would this team have won 8 games with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at quarterback? It is easy for people to forget how good and how talented the Pittsburgh offense can be with a Hall of Famer throwing the ball.

Last year in early October the Steelers made Lamar Jackson sweat and throw three interceptions en route to an overtime loss at home. They have the chops to go toe to toe with Baltimore for the division and win 10-12 games. Their schedule features four games against Cincinnati and Cleveland, as well as Jacksonville, the Giants, and Washington. They could easily find themselves at 5-2 or 4-3 heading into their Week 8 bye. In the second half, they then get to feast on the aforementioned Bengals twice, Jacksonville, and Washington. The Steelers could hit 9 wins with 3 or 4 games left in the year. They are my favorite bet on the board.