Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
The underdogs fought back in Week 6, going 9-5 against the spread as the likes of Denver (+7.5), Atlanta (+3.5), San Francisco (+2.5) won outright. Rolling with the punches of the season, my personal record hit a mediocre 7-7 mark last week, but for the season my bets have hit 56.5% of the time. As usual, Vegas has thrown us some interesting lines to chew on in Week 7. Let’s dive in.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (-6) (Over/Under 45)
Playing the Eagles has not been an edifying proposition for the Giants in recent history. The last seven meetings between the teams have seen Philadelphia prevail, though interestingly the Giants have covered the spread on their last three visits to Lincoln Financial Field. Truthfully, Big Blue has not enjoyed many road trips in recent seasons, their one-point victory over the struggling Washington Football Team a reminder of how far they have yet to progress. The task, in other words, is tall for Joe Judge and his coaches on a short week.
The home team has not fared much better, though at least Carson Wentz is battling valiantly to keep his team relevant. The emergence of Travis Fulgham has been a boon, while the defense has been stout at times. One would expect Vegas to make the Eagles firm favorites against their division rivals given the recent history, so perhaps the only surprise here is that they are laying only six points. The four-day turnaround always suits the home team, and there is little to suggest the Giants have the mettle to duke it out with their NFC East foes.
Pick: Philadelphia
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) at TENNESSEE (Over/Under 52.5)
A meeting of unbeaten teams is one of the highlights of Week 7, with AFC powerhouses Pittsburgh and Tennessee locking horns. The Steelers are 4-1 against the spread this season and have covered in their only other road game (the Giants in Week 1). Tennessee, meanwhile, is 2-0 in the last two against the spread and have been scoring points for fun, with Derrick Henry’s heroics last week bringing back memories of last year’s playoff run.
In a battle of strength versus strength – the Steelers defense against the Titans offense – which unit will prevail? That will be the central question on analysts’ lips this week. The line varies between sportsbooks, but generally, the consensus is that Pittsburgh should be favored. Indeed, scanning through both teams’ resumés to this point, the visitor’s looks the more impressive. The over looks like a nice proposition – the Titans have hit that mark in the past four games, while the Steelers offense is capable of scoring in bunches. Sit back and enjoy this one, but if you are wagering lay the points before it goes to -3.
Pick: Pittsburgh
DALLAS (-3) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 49)
The look of disgust on Jerry Jones’ face on Monday night was a poem. Utter dismay is the only way to describe the billionaire owner’s countenance as his team continues to fluff their lines. Defensively, the Cowboys are a shambolic unit and made the Cardinals look like the premiere offense in the league at times. That Dallas is laying only three points at the lowly Washington Football Team is an indictment.
The home team could have some success rushing the passer in this game, with their front four a mismatch for the undermanned Dallas offensive line. Andy Dalton will have an easier time this week, however, with the Washington offense unlikely to be as explosive as Arizona’s. And yet there are so many uncertainties at play with the Cowboys defense, who could honestly say? The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams, and it could be a nice play given the state of both rosters.
Pick: Dallas
BUFFALO (-12.5) at NY JETS (Over/Under 48)
The Bills looked out of sync at times on Monday night, both offensively and defensively, as the Chiefs rolled them over. The scoreline did not reflect a dominant performance by any means from the visitors, but the eye test did not lie. Fortunately, there is no better remedy in the league than the winless New York Jets, with Vegas installing Buffalo as massive 12.5-point favorites on the road. This is a direct response to the Jets going 0-6 against the spread this season.
With the points spread tax considered, this is a difficult one to wager on. It is entirely possible the Bills bounce back and wallop the Jets into next week, but the number is too steep. Given the offensive struggles of the Bills – and the continuing ineptitude of the Jets – the under is the best play. It is worth monitoring the status of Sam Darnold, however, who could at least make this game competitive. His return would almost certainly see the line shift slightly in the Jets’ favor.
Pick: New York
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) (Over/Under 51)
The Panthers have won and covered the spread in three of the last four this season, but last week may quickly switch them from trendy upstart to forgotten sideshow. It would be unwise to jump off the Carolina bandwagon too prematurely, however, given that they have shown to be a competent team. They have covered three of the last four in this series, with the Saints tending to get a little bit of a big-brother point-spread boost against their division rivals.
The advantage for New Orleans is, of course, the fact they are coming off a bye. These offenses are near mirror images of each other, with Joe Brady – formerly of the Saints staff – running the offense in Carolina. Drew Brees has looked feeble at times this season, but Carolina does not have the horses defensively to trouble him too much. The return of Michael Thomas will be a huge boon for the Saints as well, making them an attractive prospect. The 7.5-point line creates a bit of hesitance, but this is a good spot for them.
Pick: New Orleans
GREEN BAY (-3.5) at HOUSTON (Over/Under 56)
The Packers are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games, dating back to 2019, and should be primed for a return to form. Many will discount their fast start, opinions colored by their flat performance in Tampa. In retrospect, however, we may look back and appreciate just how formidable a unit the Bucs defense really is and give the Packers a pass. A key injury to monitor this week for Green Bay is left tackle David Bakhtiari, who left last week’s game with a chest injury. His consistency gives Aaron Rodgers peace of mind and the offense crumbled without him.
The Houston defense shouldn’t trouble Rodgers too much this week, however. They have been one of the poorest pass-rushing units and yielded over 40 points to the Titans last week. This line opened at Packers -3, but money quickly poured in to make it -3.5. Even with the line move, the smart play is to jump on the Packers, a superior team that will be highly motivated to remind the NFL that they are a contender.
Pick: Green Bay
CLEVELAND (-3.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 51.5)
The Browns prepare for their final road divisional game of the season, hoping that this encounter will go better than the previous two nightmares. In those games, the offense averaged just 6.5 points per game and gave up an average of 38 points per game. The Ravens and Steelers are different beasts to the lowly Bengals, but the Browns coaching staff will remember how close their rivals cut it in their other meeting this season, a narrow 35-30 Browns win.
How Baker Mayfield can recover from his rib issue will be a big factor in how the game pans out, of course. A Case Keenum-led Cleveland offense would not deviate much from the Kevin Stefanski script, so there may not be enough of a drop-off to move the -3.5 line, anyway. The Bengals have kept their games tight and have a habit of outperforming expectations. Perhaps this turns into another AFC North road horror show for the travel-weary Browns. The extra half-point in Cincinnati’s favor tilts it their way.
Pick: Cincinnati
DETROIT at ATLANTA (-3) (Over/Under 56.5)
The Falcons are 0-3 against the spread at home this season, while the Lions have lost 12 of their last 14 straight up. On paper, this is not the most appetizing of early window clashes, but there could be an offensive explosion on the cards. Detroit’s victory last week over Jacksonville was entirely expected, but it was impressive in its comprehensive nature. DeAndre Swift finally got more touches and the defense was smothering. They will need a similar effort to put the clamps on an Atlanta offense that came to life last week.
The change of leadership may have provided a much-needed boost for the Falcons last week, and indeed they can play with a bit more freedom now. The question is, how long will that boost last? Detroit is more than capable of piling on the misery for the Falcons, but in the clash of ‘teams you shouldn’t trust’, the home team gets the slight nod. Detroit is 14-7 to the over since 2019, so that looks like a decent wager if you prefer not to play the side.
Pick: Atlanta
SEATTLE (-3.5) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 55)
How ‘bout them Cardinals! Admittedly, the flood of money that came in on the Cowboys entering Monday night looks foolish in retrospect, but there was reason to believe that Arizona was exploitable. Not so, as it turned out. Kyler Murray did not need to play a terrific game but made the most of his opportunities. Interestingly, the road team is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings against the spread in this series. On a short week for Arizona, and given the Seahawks are coming off a bye, the -3.5 line makes more sense.
This is a crucial game for the Cardinals, who are just one game back on the Seahawks in a highly competitive division. Taking the points looks like the best play here, but the Seahawks are the NFC’s lone unbeaten team and will not go down easily. The total of 55 stands out as being a little high. If you believe in the trends, the last five in Glendale have gone to the under, making that a viable play. If you are playing the side, the half-point in Arizona’s favor is too hard to turn down.
Pick: Arizona
JACKSONVILLE at LA CHARGERS (-8) (Over/Under 49)
After Week 1, everyone was second-guessing their opinion on the Jaguars; now, public opinion has reset to where it should have been, as they find themselves floundering at 1-5. Gardner Minshew’s magic has taken them only so far, and some bad habits are beginning to creep into his game once again. This is a limited team, and it is understandable why they have been made eight-point underdogs – even against a team as frustratingly inconsistent as Los Angeles.
Interestingly, the Chargers are 1-4 straight up, but 4-1 against the spread this season. Justin Herbert is quite the prospect and has injected much-needed life into the team. Coming off a bye, this is an excellent spot for them to get right and back into the winning column against a poor Jaguars team. The Los Angeles defense did an excellent job bottling up Drew Brees in their last game, so expect similar results here. Anthony Lynn’s team has gone 7-1 to the under in their last eight home games, so that looks like a solid play.
Pick: Los Angeles
SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) (Over/Under 45.5)
The 49ers, with their backs against the wall, came out swinging and delivered a blow to their division rivals Los Angeles. This week, Jimmy Garoppolo returns to where it all began with the Patriots and will hope to channel some of the Kyle Shanahan offensive wizardry to put his former team away. Bill Belichick should have a good game plan to deal with Garoppolo, however, and with the news that Raheem Mostert is set to miss multiple weeks, suddenly the offense looks a lot less potent.
The most important battle here could be how San Francisco’s defense handles the Patriots offense, the latter a unit that was putrid in their game last week. When Julian Edelman is called upon to pass not once, but twice, that is a sign that Josh McDaniels is out of ideas with his play-calling. This projects to be a physical, low-scoring affair that could be decided with a turnover or defensive touchdown. Belichick’s team is just 3-5 against the spread in his last eight at home, making the 49ers an interesting proposition getting the points.
Pick: San Francisco
KANSAS CITY (-9) at DENVER (Over/Under 48.5)
The Chiefs continue to get the job done, with Monday night’s performance a reminder to the league that they can win in a variety of ways. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rumbled, bumbled, and stumbled his way to a massive outing behind a strong offensive line, while Patrick Mahomes II did just enough. It is little surprise that the road team is favored by nine points, given that they have won the last nine in the series straight up and are 8-1 against the spread.
Vic Fangio’s team is coming off an impressive victory in New England, and perhaps are privately seething to be nine-point underdogs at home. Certainly, there is the potential here for the Denver defense to make it difficult for Mahomes and Co. It is a brave person who wagers against the Chiefs, though; they are 13-1 straight up and 12-2 against the spread in their last 14. A trend like that is too much to ignore.
Pick: Kansas City
(Sunday Night) TAMPA BAY (-3) at LAS VEGAS (Over/Under 53.5)
The appearance of Blaine Gabbert and Tim Boyle at the end of the much-hyped Bucs versus Packers tilt was the last thing most of us would have expected to see. Such was the dominance of Tampa Bay’s defense, however, that those two passers stepped on to the field that will host this year’s Super Bowl. And it may not be outlandish at this point to fancy the Bucs to feature in that game, especially if they can build on last week’s momentum.
In their way will be a feisty Raiders team fresh off a bye and eager to build some momentum of their own. After all, just a little under two weeks ago they knocked off the Chiefs in convincing fashion. This is a Sunday night game fit for the occasion, in other words. The Bucs are deservedly favorites, but we have seen this script before in 2020 – NFC South team favored on the road in Vegas. That time, the Saints were embarrassed on national television. The smart money would be on the Bucs, but given the success of the underdogs last week, Vegas gets the edge.
Pick: Las Vegas
(Monday Night) CHICAGO at LA RAMS (-5.5) (Over/Under 46)
The Bears, ladies and gentlemen, are 5-1 and are showing few signs of slowing down. When Nick Foles struggles, he is picked up by a stifling defense that has really come into its own of late. Suddenly, Matt Nagy’s decision to bench Mitchell Trubisky looks inspired, though it must be admitted that Foles leaves a lot to be desired at times. Sometimes these ‘unsexy’ teams can be the most dangerous. The Bears defense should fancy its chances to disrupt Jared Goff and the Rams’ timing-based attack.
How Sean McVay will counter is a fascinating aspect of this match-up on Monday night under the lights. A steady dose of his stable of backs could be the answer. Indeed, a lower scoring game could be on the cards if recent history is any indication: clashes between these two teams have gone way under the last two seasons. The Bears are 21-8 to the under since late 2018 as well. This line falls squarely into the so-called Vegas zone, the -5.5 a line that is neither here nor there. Chicago is 4-1 as an underdog this season, a trend that should continue this week.
Pick: Chicago
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
The best bets were 2-2 last week, as the Cowboys completely flopped on Monday night and the Panthers were unable to summon up a last-minute comeback at home. Lines are getting more efficient by the week and Vegas is applying ‘points spread taxes’ to some teams. Let’s jump into Week 7’s best bets to get back on track. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 GREEN BAY (-3.5) at HOUSTON
- 2 CINCINNATI (+3.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- 3 CHICAGO (+5.5) at LOS ANGELES RAMS
- 4 LA CHARGERS (-8) vs. JACKSONVILLE
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 7 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.76-1 ODDS)
- LA CHARGERS (-2)
- CHICAGO (+11.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (2.28-1 ODDS):
- CINCINNATI (+3.5)
- CHICAGO (+5.5)
- 2-TEAM UNDER DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS):
- JACKSONVILLE/LA CHARGERS – UNDER 49
- SEATTLE/ARIZONA – UNDER 55
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM MEGA MONEY LINE (3.34-1 ODDS)
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
- KANSAS CITY – FOR THE WIN
- LA CHARGERS – FOR THE WIN
- NEW ORLEANS – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, LA Chargers, Chicago, Cincinnati, Kansas City
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-7
- SEASON OVERALL: 50-39-2 (56.5%)
- BEST BETS: 12-11-1, last week 2-2 (53.8%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 15-15-1, last week 2-3 (51.6%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
Follow @davlar87
