Waiting as long as possible to draft a quarterback has become en vogue in fantasy football. The trend is not without merit. There is ample evidence that the edge between a highly drafted quarterback and one drafted in the late rounds is a small enough difference that taking a quarterback early is almost never worth it. Even in superflex leagues, it is still a smart tactic to piece together two later round quarterbacks to go with one drafted a little earlier. There is still immense value to be mined later in the draft – superflex or not.
The main issue with this strategy, however, is that it is easier said than done. What late-round quarterback drafters don’t think about in August that they’ll very much care about in November is that if they are *wrong* on their late-round quarterback shot then they could have a guy who settles in as QB15 and fails to provide starter quality points. There is a way to mitigate the risk that the evaluation of the position is wrong, or just doesn’t meet expectations (usually due to injuries). The way to do that is to pair up two late-round quarterbacks that have complementary qualities.
A quarterback pairing is complementary when they can marry different strengths or qualities. This comes in the form of:
- Schedules that project to match up strength-wise
- Combining stability with upside
- Combining two players with elite potential coming off injury-riddled or statistical outlier seasons
To qualify as a late-round quarterback the definition will be that of a player that can be selected roughly 10th round or later in most 12-team, 1-quarterback-league drafts. The best candidates are, therefore: Cam Newton, Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Lock, Philip Rivers, Gardner Minshew, Derek Carr, Sam Darnold, Tyrod Taylor, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. A few have been omitted because they don’t bring enough to the table in the form of upside, stability, or schedule strength, to consider for this strategy.
So, like a sommelier in a fancy restaurant who can pair the wine with the main course, these quarterbacks can, and should, be paired up for maximum fantasy impact. Here are the choices.
HIGH STABILITY
Quarterbacks in this category are easy first choices that give a fantasy team a solid floor. They should be paired with quarterbacks in either of the following categories: Upside with Risk, Scheduled Help
Jared Goff – Goff is in one of the more stable situations of any late-round quarterback. He returns most of his offense and coaching staff. He posted over a 5% touchdown rate in each of his first two seasons under Sean McVay and that plummeted to 3.5% in 2020. The Rams still threw the ball more than anyone in the NFL, so if Goff’s scoring rate bounces back he has tremendous stability.
Ben Roethlisberger – The last time Roethlisberger played 16 games in 2017 and 2018 he was 5th and 1st in the league in pass attempts, respectively. He has the same offensive coordinator, strong young pass catchers, and an elite resume. He’s in a fairly stable situation.
Ryan Tannehill – Almost nothing has changed for Tannehill from 2019 to 2020. He returns almost everything from players to coaches to scheme. It’s hard to argue anyone in the late-round variety has more of a bedrock than Tannehill.
SCHEDULED HELP
Philip Rivers – He goes from a poor offensive line to one of the best. He also is coming off of his career-low touchdown rate in 2019. He hadn’t failed to record 26 or more touchdown passes in 12 years until he threw for 23 last season. His schedule is the Colts’ third place one, and it sets up very nicely for Rivers to rebound.
Derek Carr – While dealing with the loss of Antonio Brown, and the shell of Tyrell Williams, Carr was left to make the best out of it last year. He did so with 23 total scores and 4,000 yards passing on the 14th most attempts in the league. The Raiders added several new weapons for Carr for 2020. His schedule looks quite beatable, especially in the second half of the season.
Roethlisberger, Minshew, Bridgewater – Overall look to be facing poor defenses for a large number of games.
Tannehill, Carr – Second half schedules look promisingly weak
Taylor, Lock – First half schedules look particularly devoid of defensive stalwarts
UPSIDE WITH RISK
Cam Newton – He’s one of the riskier picks to make. He’ll struggle with the playbook early on and could find the first place schedule daunting. But his upside reaches to the top 6 if the Patriots let him run.
Gardner Minshew – He had a solid rookie season, but there is no guarantee he can make the step forward that is demanded of NFL caliber quarterbacks. If he makes that step, however, he has rushing upside to go along with a developing young stud in D.J. Chark, and a poor defense.
Tyrod Taylor – There is always the chance that the Chargers go with Justin Herbert at some point, but as of now, this is Taylor’s job to lose. He is helped by his opening schedule which could feasibly see him at 5-3 after their first eight contests. He could jump out to a hot start.
Teddy Bridgewater – The Panthers defense is going to be a work in progress, and that’s putting it nicely. Bridgewater will also work with a dynamic set of offensive skill players as well. It remains to be seen whether he can do what’s necessary to blossom into a quality NFL starter and fantasy producer for a whole year. But if he does the upside is definitely there.
Drew Lock – He’s been anointed already despite starting a handful of games in the NFL. This is in large part due to the weapons Denver has placed around him for 2020. His opening eight weeks provides some weaker defenses where he could gain confidence and take off.
The players in this category, “Upside With Risk”, should be paired with those from the first two categories.
AVOID
Sam Darnold – Darnold should be considered here and he showed last year that he should. But his schedule is one of the tougher ones in the league as he has to face Buffalo and New England twice, San Francisco, Denver, and then has to play both Los Angeles teams and Seattle all on the west coast. Darnold lost his deep threat Robby Anderson and has a rookie in his place who has been dinged up in camp. Darnold is best avoided.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – He was one heck of a fantasy producer down the stretch in 2020, but his schedule features a brutal slate of defenses just like Darnold’s. In the first eight games, Fitzpatrick faces what could be 7 of the top 10-12 defenses in the entire league. The Dolphins seem much more likely to go to Tua Tagovailoa in a vacuum than the Chargers, so that gives Fitzpatrick extra risk that Taylor doesn’t carry. And if, on top of that, Miami goes 3-5 or 2-6 over their first half? Fitzpatrick won’t be long for the lineup. His schedule does him no favors.
It is up to the individual drafting these players as to which one each person prefers. But in order to maximize potential fantasy points, the drafter should be combining the stable prospects with the upside players, or those with good schedules. Pick one from the appropriate categories and let the season start to unfold. It isn’t necessary to carry two of them all year, but often the guy to carry for the year will be clear once the season takes shape. Giving a fantasy team two chances at a top quarterback is good game theory and doubles the chances that the late-round strategy pays off in the form of an elite producer.
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