Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 13th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in the 2020 season. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
With regular seasons in fantasy leagues entering their final lap, pinpointing the key match-ups and squeezing every point out of our line-ups is critical to success. With 12 weeks of data in the rearview, that task has become easier for us. At the same time, we must be mindful of changing team situations and always be willing to accept the new reality before it bites us. It is time to finish strong.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Miami pass rushers vs. Cincinnati offensive line
With Vegas installing the Dolphins as comfortable double-digit favorites over the lowly Bengals, there could be pass rushing opportunities a-plenty. Indeed, Miami’s defense has made a habit of accumulating big plays and touchdowns and there is no match-up riper for the picking than this one. Miami’s pass rush has applied pressure on 17.6% of dropbacks, recording 2.3 sacks per game. An early lead for the home team would yield an entire second half filled with Brandon Allen dropbacks – and plenty of points for Miami’s key defenders. Andrew Van Ginkel, this is your time.
The Bengals are facing into a long, dark winter without Joe Burrow. The offensive line has been the fatal flaw of this team all season and it faces a tough assignment this week. Allowing 3.5 sacks per game and surrendering pressure on 19.7% of dropbacks, there is little reason to believe that Allen can create some wizardry out of nothing and rally this team. The writing is on the wall and it reads ‘Miami cruises to victory’.
Key stat: The Bengals offensive line has given up 8.6 quarterback hits per game.
Pittsburgh pass rushers vs. Washington offensive line
When a formula works, you stick with it. That has been the case for the Steelers all season long; consistently the best pass rushing unit, their players must be atop our lists when we are assembling line-ups. A pressure applied rate of 25.2% is unheard of and demonstrates their dominance as a unit. They also boast a home sack percentage of 13%. Washington, on an interesting note, have a sack percentage allowed of 6.9% on the road.
Even coming off a short week, the Steelers should be more than equipped up front to cause problems for a Washington offensive line that has allowed pressure on 17.9% of dropbacks. The Football Team would love nothing more than to hand the ball off to Antonio Gibson and control the clock, but the Steelers, like a boa constrictor, have a way of choking the life out of teams. Plug in your Steelers pass rushers and reap the rewards.
Key stat: The Steelers pass rush has averaged 3.7 sacks per game.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Tennessee pass rushers vs. Cleveland offensive line
It is no secret that the Titans pass rush has been a disappointment this season. Averaging just 1.3 sacks per game and applying pressure on 11.3% of dropbacks, this is a toothless front seven in many respects. The task does not get any easier this week against AFC contender Cleveland, whose offensive line is among the league’s best.
Baker Mayfield has been handled well by head coach Kevin Stefanski in terms of the design of the offense, with bootlegs and rollouts a fixture. With Cleveland dropping back fewer than 30 times per game, the opportunities will be limited for the Titans to rush the passer. The game script could tilt in Tennessee’s favor, forcing Mayfield to make something happen as a dropback passer, but the sense is that the Browns will stubbornly stick to a ground-based attack regardless. Fade your Titans.
Key stat: The Browns have allowed just 1.5 sacks per game and average just 29.5 dropbacks per game (league average is 37.3).
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
New England and Los Angeles Chargers defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 2nd
With Justin Herbert at the controls, the Chargers offense continues to be one of the best tackle match-ups in the league. Allowing 58.5 tackle opportunities per game, Herbert and company have recorded 30.3 rushing attempts to go along with 41.6 dropbacks per game. In other words, the Patriots defenders will have their hands full this week. As the key stat below suggests, the visitors are set to benefit from the Chargers’ strong tackle viability.
But all is not lost for the Chargers defenders. Granted, they average just 47.9 tackle opportunities per game, but the Patriots offense is a good rushing unit and could extend drives and provide more chances. Averaging 31.4 rushing attempts per game, the combination of Cam Newton, Damien Harris and the short passing attack will be enough to keep the Los Angeles key defenders in play. This is a plum match-up, so try to get a piece of it.
Key stat: Visiting teams average 44.8 solo tackles per game compared to just 33.2 for the home team in SoFi Stadium.
Houston defenders vs. Indianapolis
Stadium TVO rank: 6th
NRG Stadium is a good venue for TVO factor, which translates to better gains on a per-tackle basis for our line-ups. The loss of Will Fuller to suspension has capped the upside of the Texans offense – even with Deshaun Watson at the helm – making this week’s task decidedly easier for the Colts defense. Indianapolis’ offense has been reasonable as a tackle match-up, averaging 52.2 opportunities allowed per game.
Houston’s defense has been sieve-like all season and has averaged 55.6 tackle opportunities per game as their inability to stop the run continues to bite. This could be the week that the Colts fire on all cylinders and get Jonathan Taylor that true breakout performance. The stage is set for the Colts, favored according to the Vegas line, to get out to a lead and create ample opportunities for the Houston defense.
Key stat: The Texans face an average of 30 rushing attempts per game.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Kansas City and Denver defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 31st
The Arrowhead Stadium stat crew has turned out to be one to avoid this season, capping the upside and limiting the appeal of all defenders. With the Chiefs favored by 14 points, the expectation is that Denver will be hammered into oblivion. That game script would increase the floor of some Denver defenders, but the Chiefs have not exactly been a ground and pound offense.
Denver have faced 28.6 rushing attempts per game, so there is a path to production if Andy Reid decides to give Clyde Edwards-Helaire the bulk of the work in the second half. The best play here, however, is to fade this game entirely and seek value in some of the other upside spots.
Key stat: The Chiefs run the ball on just 37.5% of their plays, below the league average of 41.3%.
Seattle defenders vs. New York Giants
Stadium TVO rank: 29th
Not only are Seattle’s defenders the victims of a poor home TVO factor, but they also now must face Colt McCoy and a limited Giants offense. New York’s offense has been one of fits and starts, at times unable to get out of its own way. That is not a formula for success for defensive players. The one saving grace is that the Giants will be more conservative and run the football more often. Here’s the rub: that strategy only works while the game is close, and Vegas has Seattle as 10-point favorites.
In other words, this is a game that is best avoided. If anything, the Seahawks defenders have upside to produce big plays against an offensive line that has been anything but solid this season. As for tackle production, however, the ceiling is low in a match-up the home team should cruise in.
Key stat: The Giants offense has averaged just 48 tackle opportunities allowed this campaign.
Best of luck with Week 13 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.