Welcome to Week 16 of the 2020 Footballguys' Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate difficult Week 15 scenarios, the recent carousel of quarterbacks with viable fantasy QB1 potential, players we're excited about next year, and our riskiest Week 15 decisions for our playoff matchups.
Let's roll...
Week 16 Starters to Bench
Matt Waldman: Pick a player ranked as a starter at his position in a 12-team league that uses a lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (non-QB) PPR format whom you think should be benched in Week 16. Give us the goods.
Jeff Haseley: Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett. The Rams may have lost to the Jets, but there's no denying the pass defense for Los Angeles this season. Ten times they allowed nor more than a touchdown pass in a game this season. That's definitely something to consider if you're thinking about starting Russell Wilson. As for Lockett, he has scored once since Week 7 and his greatest yardage output since then is 67 yards.
Sean Settle: In recent weeks, we have all come to see the Lions start running the ball and how DAndre Swift has assumed a big role in the offense while healthy. We also had the issue of Adrian Peterson sniping goal-line touchdowns, but Swift’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield has always helped to bail him out.
You may be considering playing him as an RB2 or Flex this week, but I would urge you to reconsider. Tampa Bay has the top rush defense in the league this season and has allowed just an average of 77.8 yards per game. Their average across the last three games is a little high, but they did just hold Atlanta to 37 rushing yards last week. Swift will continue to get better, but this is not the week to bet on him in the fantasy playoffs.
Mark Schofield: I'd be surprised if anyone was still starting Ben Roethlisberger at this point, but if Monday night's loss to the Cincinnati Bengals did not convince you it was time to look for an alternative, allow me to try. Roethlisberger is still just inside the Top 10 among Yahoo's scoring leaders at quarterback, but this Pittsburgh offense is a mess right now.
He is missing on deep reads and throws, the running game is struggling, and this week's matchup against the Indianapolis Colts is not the best for them. They'll see a lot of Cover 2/Tampa 2 looks, which is going to bait Roethlisberger into throwing that seam route between the safeties which has been a roller-coaster for him all season. If you're up against it with no other options, I'd say let it ride, but if you have any other viable choice, this would be the time to make the move.
Will Grant: Mike Gesicki has been a no-brainer start at different points this year. Recently, in Weeks 12-14, he had a combined 22 targets, 16 receptions 188 yards receiving, and 4 touchdowns. He missed last week due to a shoulder injury, but he's back partially practicing this week and the Dolphins are going to need him against the Raiders.
However, if you're in fantasy playoffs, and Gesicki is one of your tight end options, you may want to consider other players. He's still not fully practicing yet and there's a good chance he's not going to be 100 percent. A shoulder injury is a hard thing to overcome for a big receiver like Gesicki and it will limit his effectiveness, even if he plays.
Our current projections have him at less than 3 receptions and about 35 yards receiving. There are plenty of other tight end options that have better projections than that.
Week 16 Benchwarmers to Start
Waldman: Pick a player ranked outside the top 15 QBs, top 36 RBs, top 48 WRs, and top 15 TEs that you believe have a chance to deliver starter points if you're in a desperate situation with your championship lineup. Tell us who could help readers.
Schofield: He's not inside the Top 15 right now, but at some point in his career Tua Tagovailoa will be. This week he'll be facing a Las Vegas Raiders defense that is near the bottom of many defensive categories, and look at what they've given up the past few weeks: 37 points to the Falcons, 28 points to the Jets, 38 points to the Colts, 30 to the Chargers.
Now they're getting an offense that is tailored to Tagovailoa's skillset and figured out the rushing attack a bit last week in a win over the Patriots. This could - nay should - be a big game for him.
Settle: It is finally time to buy into what Cleveland is doing right now. Baker Mayfield sits just outside the top 15 quarterbacks in standard Yahoo! scoring. His production has jumped after a solid 4-game stretch where he has 10 touchdown passes and just a single interception.
He is clicking with Jarvis Landry and the strong rushing attack is more than enough to hide some of his flaws. Mayfield also has a great matchup against a depleted Jets secondary this week. The Browns look for real right now and have a very favorable game next week before a showdown with the Steelers to close out the regular season.
2021 Hot Seat
Waldman: Tell us about a player or coach that you believe will be in a precarious spot with his job future in 2021.
Grant: I'd agree with Mark that Matt Nagy is in the hot seat, and these last two games are really going to be critical for him. The Bears still have an outside shot at making the playoffs and they are facing the Jaguars this week in a game where they are projected to win.
Yet, the Bears have been so inconsistent this season, it's far from a slam dunk win for them this week, especially on the road in Jacksonville. Week 17 has them at home against their hated rivals, Green Bay, a team that put 41 on them just a couple of weeks ago.
The Packers will be playing to hold onto their No.1 seed and they have consistently owned Chicago throughout the Aaron Rodgers era. If the Bears lose either of those games, I would expect Nagy to lose his job.
Missing the playoffs, admitting that Mitch Tribusky was a mistake, and going into a rebuilding mode, Chicago will be in a prime position to launch Nagy and bring in a new coach and possibly a new GM. The Bears can't escape the fact that they traded up to get Trubisky and could have taken either Patrick Mahomes II or Deshaun Watson in 2017 and admitting Trubisky isn't their answer will probably be the end of Pace as well.
Waldman: I'm rolling with John Elway. Drew Lock is an incomplete quarterback with a lot of physical talent, but there are whispers of discontent about Lock's work ethic and accountability. The team seems unhappy about what's happening and the root problem could be Elway's grip on having a big say with decisions that may extend beyond his role.
Since earning the GM role in Denver, Elway hasn't found a franchise quarterback despite selecting early picks at the position. He's also refused to pay fan favorites who've often proven more valuable than the early picks that he has favored. It's ironic that Elway spent so many years battling a heated rival owned by Al Davis to only evolve into a team executive who seems to exhibit Davis'-like behavior.
If Denver can't contend next year, Elway could be gone.
Haseley: David Johnson. Johnson has one more year on his contract and he hasn't done enough to prove the Texans should stick with him moving forward, especially with a new head coach coming who will want his own personnel on the field. Johnson's days are numbered. This is a younger man's league, especially at the running back position.
Another back who could see his production reduced is James Conner who will be a free agent after this season. He hasn't proven that he is a reliable option for teams, especially when a younger back is cheaper with less baggage.
Settle: The window in Minnesota seems to be rapidly closing. For a team that had lofty goals and thought they were a single piece away from a Super Bowl run, they have fallen completely flat.
Mike Zimmer was known for his defensive prowess and this year’s team ranks near the bottom in several key defensive categories. Zimmer also made the costly mistake earlier in the season against the Seahawks when he went for it on fourth down rather than take the points and watched Russell Wilson lead the team down the field for a game-winning touchdown as time expired. It may not seem like the obvious choice for a coach on the hot seat, but Zimmer has struggled to win the big games and the fans in Minnesota are calling for change.
2021 Free Agency
Matt Waldman: Pick a prominent fantasy starter from 2020 whose contract expires at year's end and tell us where you'd love to see him land. For instance, I'd like to see Aaron Jones in Atlanta. I think it would be an excellent fit for the player and the team due to Jones' receiving skills and the young offensive line that has promise but could benefit from a talent like Jones who can help the line with his savvy play a little more than the line might actually help him.
Settle: Things may be a little murky with Will Fuller after the suspension, but he is also a free agent and will most likely land somewhere else. The Green Bay Packers were a great fit and very interested at the trade deadline.
The Packers desperately need someone on the other side of Davante Adams and possibly to fill some of the offensive snaps lost by a potential Aaron Jones leaving. Fuller may be able to be had at a discount due to the suspension. Aaron Rodgers needs another weapon and this seems like the best fit right now.
Grant: Wayne Gallman was nothing more than a guy to give Saquan Barkley a break until this season, and he's averaging 4.5 yards per carry on a team that has very little offense to draw attention away from him. He also had a stretch of five consecutive games with rushing touchdowns earlier this year. Gallman is a UFA and he will be one of the hotter free-agent options at running back this off-season. Teams like Houston (who still have David Johnson but he can't seem to stay healthy) or San Francisco (who can't seem to keep anyone healthy) would be a good landing spot for Gallman.
Haseley: Allen Robinson will be awesome anywhere with a capable, consistent, and productive quarterback. He's probably not picky.
After beginning his NFL life with Jacksonville and graduating to Chicago, Robinson has failed to cash in on such a quarterback. He is one of the league's best all-around receivers and it's all but a foregone conclusion that he won't be in Chicago for the 2021 season.
He'll be paid wherever he decides to go, but there is no doubt that he wants to play for a contender. One team that makes sense, if they can afford him, is Houston and the lure of playing with Deshaun Watson. Will Fuller is also a free agent, so the Texans will need to make some decisions at wide receiver.
They will want to give Watson a weapon, why not Robinson? Houston has concerns in other areas, but the new coach who is brought in will want to do what is possible to bring Houston another elite receiver after the DeAndre Hopkins trade.
Schofield: The homer in me wants New England to make a run at Dak Prescott. Since, however, that is not Belichick's M.O. I'm going to say pairing Prescott with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco would be incredible to see. Prescott's mobility paired with Shanahan's offensive system would be almost ideal. The money might be tough, if not impossible, but a guy can dream and this is the season of miracles.
Waldman: Will, your Gallman call is one of the most interesting selections this week. Personally, I don't see him being a hot commodity unless a team loves him as a backup. Second-contract backs who earn starting gigs are few and far between, especially when there is almost always a rich class of running backs with enough talent to deliver as starters during their rookie deals. Gallman ran hard this year and he can catch, but I don't think he runs with enough creativity to generate starter-level interest from teams this winter.
I already mentioned Jones in Atlanta. I'd like to see T.Y. Hilton in Houston because he's a consummate route runner with the versatility to play inside and outside. He's also an excellent contested-catch receiver with boundary routes, which would give Deshaun Watson a player capable of providing an element that the Texans didn't replace when they traded away DeAndre Hopkins. Because Hilton also has sudden acceleration and good speed, his vertical skills are being squandered with Philip Rivers and the Colts.
If Matthew Stafford stays in Detroit, I'd like to see Hilton, JuJu Smith-Schuster, A.J. Green, and/or Josh Reynolds go to the Lions. Even if we discover that Green has indeed lost a step, he has the route skills to become an excellent big-slot receiver if the Lions don't land an option like Smith-Schuster, who can work inside and outside and provide excellent value as a run blocker.
Reynolds would be a good replacement for Marvin Jones or Kenny Golladay as an outside receiver. He's a great contested-catch receiver whose boundary acrobatics have been wasted in Los Angeles' scheme.