Welcome to Week 11 of the 2020 Footballguys' Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate the Steelers-Ravens game, fantasy playoff sizzlers and fizzlers, and traditions they observe that link Thanksgiving and Football.
- Free Agent Sizzlers for the Playoff Run
- Baltimore-Pittsburgh
- Playoff Fizzlers
- Thanksgiving-Football Traditions
Let's roll...
Free Agent Sizzlers for the Playoff Run
Matt Waldman: Give us a free agent who is not on a majority of league rosters that you believe can be a valuable addition to a fantasy squad down the stretch. Use the link as your resource.
Sean Settle: If you are looking for Flex or WR help, Tim Patrick is owned in just 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues and has become a go-to target for Drew Lock. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler may be the names everyone knows right now, but with Noah Fant struggling to stay healthy Patrick has seen his fair share of targets.
He has 3 games with 100 yards receiving this season and 3 touchdowns. At 6.2 targets per game, he could be a valuable flex down the stretch in PPR leagues. He has plus matchups against Carolina, Buffalo, and Vegas down the stretch as they have all struggled to cover receivers in the slot. Look for Patrick to continue to fly under the radar and be a good matchup play during the fantasy playoffs.
Waldman: As a GM who added Patrick six-eight weeks ago, I couldn't agree more. He's not a great wide receiver, but he's a capable contributor who is difficult to stop when it comes to the things he does really well, which is winning on the perimeter and using his size to earn position against man-to-man coverage.
B.J. VanderWoude: Michael Pittman Jr has seen his stock rise rapidly over the last three weeks, where he’s totaled 14 receptions on 18 targets for 223 yards and a touchdown. Pittman Jr. has gone over 50 yards receiving in each of those games, but his breakout performance came in a Week 10 win over the Titans where he caught seven of eight targets for 101 yards.
He followed that up by catching all three of his targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in the Colts' win over the Packers this past weekend. Pittman’s 45-yard touchdown catch showed off his speed and fluidity after the catch, which along with his 6’4", 223 lb frame, makes him a matchup nightmare and the type of player the Colts desperately need at wide receiver.
Pittman lined up on the left side of the formation and ran a drag route underneath the Packers zone coverage. With long strides and the ability to get up to top speed quickly, Pittman had already created quite a bit of separation by the time he caught the ball, and that enabled him to turn the corner and get up the field before the Packers secondary could get an angle to tackle him. He got a solid block, weaved his way to the inside of the field, and was gone for the score without a Packers defender getting a hand on him.
With Philip Rivers's best years as a downfield passer clearly behind him, Pittman fits an integral role for the Colts as a player who can create explosive plays after the catch. Despite being in his rookie season, the Colts will need to lean on Pittman down the stretch this season, making him a solid #3 receiver with the upside to help the team deep into the fantasy playoffs.
Mark Scofield: As crazy as this might sound I'm going to go with Daniel Jones for this one. He is currently rostered on just 32% of teams on Yahoo, but I think we saw signs of growth from him the past few weeks. Jason Garrett—who deserves more credit than he is getting for how he has handled Jones over the past month or so—has found designs that are working for him in the passing game. This includes vertical routes, play-action shot plays, and calls that get him involved with his legs.
New York also gets some soft defenses over the next few weeks, with Cincinnati this Sunday and the Seahawks the week after that. Two defenses that have given up some big games to quarterbacks this year
Chad Parsons: Many of the strong injury-away running backs are available using this Roster Rate threshold. A single injury to the starter paves the way for a dynamic fantasy stretch run addition to teams. When in doubt, optimize the other positions to get even 1-2 more of this subset for a shot at hitting the impact lottery any given week.
For example, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, Devontae Booker, and Jordan Wilkins are glaring options.
Jalen Reagor would be a non-running back choice, who is seeing strong snaps and still simmering for high targets. The Eagles are a work-in-progress through this tough season, but Alshon Jeffery has looked invisible since his lack-of-fanfare return to the passing game and Travis Fulgham has largely turned back into a pumpkin. The WR1 role on the Eagles offense is there for Reagor's taking.
Andrew Garda: I like Teddy Bridgewater. At 38 percent, he’s an under-used quarterback and can at least function as a very nice backup. He’s had some stinkers, but if healthy he has some decent talent around him (even without Christian McCaffery) and a favorable schedule down the stretch.
The Vikings have been inconsistent against quarterbacks this year, and then after the bye, Bridgewater sees Denver, a Green Bay team with massive defensive issues, and Washington. Those are some great matchups for playoffs and the championship and that makes Bridgewater, to me, worth rostering.
Drew Davenport: For some reason, people continue to discount J.D. McKissic's production because he is not the "top" option in Washington. But, his PPR numbers are fairly consistent and with the switch to Alex Smith at quarterback, he is being peppered with targets.
Since Week 4 he has averaged 8.1 targets and 10.4 touches per game. And in the three games since Smith took over he has 33 targets and 19 receptions. His role is secure, and when Washington is behind he is the guy catching short passes, and check-downs, from Smith. At this point in the season, it isn't easy to find RB production and McKissic should be rostered in all formats.
I'm also paying attention to the tight end situation in Seattle. With Greg Olsen out of the picture, it is likely that either Will Dissly or Jacob Hollister will become relevant for the stretch. My money is on Hollister, but if I need a tight end I'm paying careful attention to snap counts going forward and jumping on the guy who takes the top role.
Forecasting Baltimore-Pittsburgh
Waldman: On paper, the best game of the week is the latest installment of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry, which has been moved to Sunday due to COVID issues.
- Predict the score.
- Who has the best fantasy game between the two teams?
- Who has the most disappointing?
- Who has the most surprising among players outside the startable range in 12-team leagues with a 1 QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE lineup?
Settle: I see Baltimore winning 27-21. Both of these defenses have been dominant at times this season and it was a hard-fought battle in week 8. With potential COVID issues for J.K Dobbins and Mark Ingram, it could fall more on Lamar Jackson to run the ball this week.
I still believe he can have the best overall fantasy day of any player. He just missed delivering two touchdown passes in last week’s loss to the Titans and would have had a much better day. We have not seen that truly special game from Jackson yet this season, but if there was ever a week to make a statement it would be now. Look for him to do damage both on the ground and through the air.
James Conner is going to find it very difficult to run against this defense. Baltimore largely held Derrick Henry in check last week until the 4th quarter and overtime. Conner salvaged his day against Baltimore in Week 8 with a touchdown. He otherwise rushed 15 times for 45 yards and could not find room to operate. Look for Baltimore to attack outside with their top trio of receivers and for Conner to have a smaller role this week.
Due to the current COVID situation, Gus Edwards is going to get a lot of work this week and falls outside of the starting range. Lamar Jackson is going to get more carries than normal, but Edwards will be the lead back with Justice Hill getting some work as well. All aboard the Gus Bus this week as he will be widely available and will get starting reps this week.
The most disappointing will likely be James Conner. Despite the losses on the defensive line for Baltimore, Conner has struggled even in the best of matchups this year, and the Steelers have given his goal-line duties to Benny Snell. He only managed to scrape out 12 points against a bad Jacksonville team last weekend, and just 6.8 the week before against Cincinnati. Baltimore may be down some players, but they're still better than those two defenses and Conner just isn't getting it done. I doubt this week is much different.
The most surprising player to look for is probably Willie Snead. He's really tough to count on as he is prone to completely disappear, but he has 7 or more targets in 3 of his last 4, and beat the Steelers for 106 yards in Week 8. He benefits from teams trying to stop the downfield seam throws to the tight end and the deep ball to Marquise Brown. It's possible he'll see room to roam again and have another nice game against Pittsburgh.
Garda: Pittsburgh wins, but I think it’s closer – 24-21. I agree with Mark that Lamar Jackson will struggle against a Steelers team that is very familiar with how to frustrate him. I don’t know that I feel he’s losing confidence, but I do think the offensive scheme is being pulled apart and the ravens aren’t throwing in enough wrinkles to help Jackson, and I also feel he’s not getting enough help from his weapons.
I think that even though he complained about it, the extra couple of days off are going to be huge for JuJu Smith-Schuster. He looked banged up last week and I think had this been a Thursday game, it might still be a bigger issue. But I think punting this to Sunday is nothing but good for him. He caught seven balls for 67 yards last time these two teams met. I think he does slightly better and finds the end zone.
Parsons: I'm going with the Steelers, 27-22. JuJu Smith-Schuster is my bet for the comparably best performance in the game. Marquise Brown was a shadow in the last game against the Steelers and has eroded to a marginal fantasy option at best this season amidst breakout expectations. Look for the Steelers to limit big plays and trust their front seven to defend the run.
Eric Ebron will be the wildcard performer in the game. The Ravens are stingy against wide receivers but average in Strength of Schedule (aSOS) for tight ends. Ebron has been underrated with touchdowns in 3-of-4 recent games and can easily get lost amidst Pittsburgh's talented quartet of wide receivers.
Playoff Fizzlers
Waldman: Name a hot starter you believe will disappoint down the stretch.
Davenport: Todd Gurley is my choice here. He's been extremely touchdown reliant as he has only 16 receptions through 10 games, is averaging 3.6 yards per carry, and has the 5th-lowest DVOA of all qualifying running backs in the league. To put it bluntly, without his abnormally high touchdown totals he would be more of borderline RB2/3 than an RB1/2.
The problem for Gurley is that he draws the Saints in the all-important Week 13 game (last regular-season game for most leagues) who he posted only 3.9 points against in Week 11 and who are the stingiest in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs. He then gets a respectable Chargers defense before a brutal game in Week 15 against Tampa Bay who gives up an average of just 53 rushing yards a game, best in the league.
His only saving grace is that when most leagues are done he gets Tampa Bay again in Week 17. Either way, Gurley is likely to see a drop in touchdown production, coupled with a tough schedule. This sets him up to be a big disappointment to finish the year.
Schofield: Right now, Tom Brady is ranked 9th in points per game in PPR formats. But it is sliding, and expect that to continue.
The Tampa Bay offense is a mess right now, and there look to be no easy fixes. The play design is flawed, the play-calling is questionable, and the execution is worse. Players are not on the same page from drive-to-drive, let alone week-to-week. And Brady is pressing now. This looks like it could spin wildly out of control.
VanderWoude: After watching Tua start several games, I am not sold on his ability to positively impact the wide receivers around him, specifically Davante Parker. The Dolphins benched Tua in the second half of Sunday’s game and I think that is a sign of things to come. Parker is athletically gifted and can win matchups on the outside, but unless Tua can bide enough time and keep his eyes downfield, that point is mute.
From what I’ve seen, Tua is going to look to the first man open and avoid taking hits, which is good for his long term prospects, but not necessarily good for Parker’s stats the rest of the season, even with injuries to Gaskin and Williams. I would look to package Parker for an upgrade at the wide receiver position, especially if you are positioned for a deep run in the fantasy playoffs.
Garda: Antonio Gibson has scored five touchdowns in the last four games, and had a nice 128-yard stint last time he faced Dallas, which he will again Thursday.
After that though, he’s got the Steelers, Niners, and Seahawks, and I think we will see those touchdowns evaporate. If that happens, he’s not consistent enough in yards to carry you as far as he is right now.
Settle: Robby Anderson has been a surprise so far this season, but he is going to have a tough road down the stretch. With a late bye week, an injured starting quarterback, and tough matchups against Denver, Green Bay, and New Orleans down the stretch does not bode well. He has dates with Marshon Lattimore and Jaire Alexander coming up and will struggle. This offense has no identity right now and there is no guarantee that Christian McCaffery comes back. The hot start may just come to a cold end for Anderson.
Thanksgiving-Football Traditions
Matt Waldman: Thanksgiving and football are like peanut butter and jelly. Share a tradition or a humorous personal story involving football and Thanksgiving.
Schofield: I mean, there was the moment that my grandmother dumped a hot pot of coffee in my grandfather's lap just as Leon Lett was blowing that blocked field goal against the Miami Dolphins. Does that count?
Waldman: Sure, something tells me you're planning to adopt this as a potential "tradition" when your daughter brings the first boy home for the holiday. Am I wrong?
Schofield: Ha! The threat of it happening will be enough. Kind of a good pump fake.VanderWoude: My favorite tradition involving Thanksgiving football is the serving of our family’s preferred appetizer and the first game of the day. My mother broils a crusty Italian bread with butter, then serves it with fresh mozzarella and roasted red peppers.
It is the perfect way to start off the day, and my siblings and I usually fight to see who can eat as much of it as we can. The smell of the bread broiling and the roasted reds remind me of Thanksgiving and is the thing I look forward to the most in terms of food being served!
Garda: For many years, nobody but I played fantasy football. So, each Thanksgiving, I would get up early and start looking at the news feed to make sure I was on top of who was starting and get my lineups set. My eldest son, who was a middle schooler at the time, played football but didn’t understand fantasy, and never liked any of the teams on Thanksgiving.
Settle: Football has always been a family tradition in our household for Thanksgiving. Some of our earliest DraftKings teams came on Thanksgiving Day slates. It was Thanksgiving Fantasy Football that got my wife hooked four years ago and she has never looked back. She went from not knowing any players except for local Broncos to running four different teams across different leagues, participating in weekly Draft Kings and FanDuel contests, and able to name players from every single team in the league.
Thanksgiving Football helped me share my passion with my wife and has become a tradition every single year. This year we will play a head-to-head matchup with the winner getting a week off from changing the babies’ diapers. We have a lot riding on the line this week, but it is a fun tradition to continue through the years.
Parsons: When I was more particular about my diet and not into holidays in my 20's and 30's, a few times I went to a Thanksgiving get-together I took my own food to the event and did not partake of anything there. I am a weird one anyway, but this was the height of my weirdness about Thanksgiving.
Also, I am a very slow eater, so the table is usually already being cleared entirely by the time I am on my last plate (of many) and dishes could even be done while I am still enjoying the spread.
Davenport: For the Davenports, the tradition of football has always been intertwined with Thanksgiving. I think my mom wishes that weren't so, but I have two brothers and between those two and my dad we always were more interested in football than the Macy's parade.
By far, the biggest Davenport tradition is always a game of football in the yard after dinner and that's the source of my funniest memory. About 6 or 7 years ago, when my dad was about 70 years old we were in the yard tossing the ball around and playing some easy pitch and catch.
My dad was quite an accomplished football player in his day, so he still has his skills even if he's 70 (now 77), but he never "goes hard" in our backyard games for obvious reasons.
Well, this time we were playing some 2-on-2 running routes and whatnot when my brother fired a pass at my dad. My oldest brother was covering, and the play went near the sidewalk (the out of bounds marker), and then it happened: 40 years fell away and my dad reached out and snared the pass near the sideline and did a little move to completely drop my brother's dignity on the lawn while he tight roped the boundary.
Before we knew it all we could see was the bottom of my Dad's *dress shoes* as he took off down the "field" and left everyone behind. We all looked at each other and burst out laughing in amazement and amusement. The transformation at that moment was truly spectacular and one we'll never forget.
We still talk about that moment to this day.
Waldman: So I don't have anything to share on the tradition front since I became a parent and hosted Thanksgiving because my immediate family in the household during those years weren't football fans and they've been so supportive year-round of my career that the holiday has morphed into a time for everything but football.
However, Drew's story about his dad's football days returning to him in a moment of instinct reminds me of a story I heard from friends of mine 25 years ago while we were post-graduates of the University of Georgia and still living and working in Athens.
It was a Sunday during the season and we were going to play a pickup game in the yard. One of our crew asked if "Shoes" was going to be there. Shoes, was Mark Maxwell, a local acoustic guitarist well-known in Athens for producing a CD of acoustic guitar lullabies that he sold to the local hospital so they could give copies to new parents when discharged with their babies.
Most of my friends in this crew were between six-two and six-five and weighed between 200-250 pounds and had backgrounds in high school sports. Shoes is maybe 5'10" and 180 pounds and he looks like a guy who performs guitar lullabies: Long curly hair down to the middle of his back, Radar O'Reilly spectacles, and wears sandals for every occasion (hence the nickname "Shoes"--where are your shoes, Mark? This is a formal gig).
What they didn't know about Shoes is that he was a star high school running back—one of the very few who went to my high school—and earned a scholarship at Georgia Tech during Bill Curry's coaching tenure. Shoes never started at running back for the Yellow Jackets, but he was the squads starting kick return specialist.
You have to be a special kind of crazy to return kicks, especially in that era of football.
I knew Shoes played, so when my friend asked if Shoes was coming, I detected a hint of reticence in his voice. Mind you this friend was a 6'5", 240-pound guy who never seemed afraid to mix it up in any sports we played casually so the fact he had this weird tone to the question got me curious.
"Why do you want to know?"
"Have you have played with Shoes?"
"No, I've never been here when he's been here."
"Listen, the last time Shoes played, the game lasted about 5 minutes--and we played, maybe, 90 seconds of that time.
We kicked off to him, not knowing that he actually played college football. We came charging down the field and Shoes, in those damn sandals, ran through most of us. You know that sick thud you hear when someone collides with a wall or car by accident when they are on a bike or running? That was the sound we heard about four times on one return when dudes were slamming and sliding off Shoes.
By the time he reached the end zone, most of the guys were on the ground and needed a couple of minutes to get up. When his team kicked off, Shoes ran through three blocks, planted the return man, and scooped the ball off the ground, and scored.
Those guys trying to block Shoes needed a couple more minutes and at that point, we decided Shoes was too good and ended the game."
I think of that story whenever I hear about former players playing pickup games. I also think of Charlie Ward as a veteran Knick guard many years after the NFL ignorantly wouldn't consider him as a quarterback and he had been in the NBA for over a decade. One night late in his career, there was a loose ball, and Ward dove into a scrum of guys about twice his size.
When he emerged with the ball, half the big mean in that scrum were laid out on the court writhing in pain.
I thought to myself, "that's a football player."