FBG Predicts: The AFC East

Photo: USA Today Sports

Since everyone is sitting around waiting for camps to start, we decided to ask the Footballguys staff to offer up some predictions for each division. We asked staff members to predict the order of finish, if the division was good enough to get multiple playoff teams, and if there was a team in each division bad enough to contend for the 1.01 pick in the 2021 Draft.

Today, we'll look at the AFC East and compare our staff predictions to win totals from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Find links to other divisions here.

While the Bills are inching close, the Patriots are still a slight favorite. Could this be a case of to be the kind, you have to beat the king? Clearly, the AFC East looks like two haves (New England and Buffalo) and two have nots (the Jets and the Dolphins).

Is this division good enough to get two playoff teams? Three?

The Short Answer

Possibly two -- New England and Buffalo

Jordan McNamara

Is this division good enough to get two playoff teams? Three?
I think the Patriots and Bills are both good enough to get into the playoffs. Buffalo is a trendy pick to win the division but the Patriots return a strong defense and add Cam Newton to an offense that was not good in 2020. If there is a decline by the Patriots in 2020 I think the defense and not the loss of Tom Brady will be the reason. While I picked the Patriots, I think Buffalo is close to a coin flip to win the AFC East and can go deep into the playoffs. The Bills have a defense that can keep the Bills in any game and Josh Allen is the type of high variance quarterback that can string together a deep playoff.

Devin Knotts

This is the best division in the AFC in my opinion even with Ben Roethlisberger coming back. Unfortunately, the depth in this division is going to cause problems with some cannibalization, so while it's likely two teams make the playoffs, it's going to be difficult to see three even with the expanded format as this division sees both the AFC and NFC West which will make things difficult this year.

I'm simply in love with what Brian Flores and the Dolphins did last season with very little talent. They went 5-4 in their last nine games including a win in Week 17 against New England with New England playing their starters. What I love about the Dolphins is their rebuilt defense, they have arguably the best cornerback tandem in football in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard and went out and added Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson.

Andy Hicks

This division may only have one playoff team this year, although two is definitely possible. Buffalo has built nicely, developed well, and although Josh Allen may be the weak link, this is a well-coached and organized team. I do like the Jets to succeed in spite of Adam Gase. Sam Darnold is a special talent and we saw the difference in the Jets once he recovered from his mono. Add in a couple of wide receivers and this side will be around 8-8. Miami should be thereabouts as well and like Devin mentioned this side overachieved in 2019 despite obviously rebuilding. New England last is a hard call and will probably have me eating humble pie. This seems the perfect year for Bill Belichick to revamp the roster to build for future years. Losing isn’t a skill he is familiar with, but all good things come to an end, even if only temporarily.

Ryan Hester

Both Buffalo and New England will make the AFC playoffs, and Miami will be on many “in the hunt” graphics as they begin to be shown down the stretch before ultimately falling short.

Chad Parsons

Buffalo is high floor enough with their defense and good moments from Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, and John Brown to win 9-10 games. I will not be betting against the Patriots until they are firmly unseated and especially with the upside variable of Cam Newton, am not willing to do so in 2020.

Jeff Haseley

I can see both Buffalo and New England getting in the playoffs. I envision both with 10-11 wins with the division title coming down to Week 16 at New England where Buffalo does just enough to end the streak of division titles for the Patriots. Remember, Sean McDermott knows Cam Newton well from his time in Carolina.

Jason Wood

Not yet. The Bills are a trendy pick this year and have a playoff-caliber roster, but this looks like another year Bill Belichick reminds the sports world he's in a class by himself. I'll stick with the Patriots being the only playoff team in the AFC East.

Bob Henry

While many were hoping this would be the year the Patriots lose their stranglehold on the division, the likelihood of any team taking this division except Buffalo is low. The Bills are poised to make a run for a playoff spot and with an extra spot this year, they could grab one. Allen must improve as a passer, but even so, their defense will keep them in a lot of games and they should be able to run the ball just fine. I'll float NE's chances for the playoffs around 80%, Buffalo 55%, Miami 25%, and the Jets 15%.

Sigmund Bloom

Buffalo and New England could both make the playoffs in any number of scenarios. The Bills have a ton of continuity and added Stefon Diggs, they should be in as a wildcard at worst. The Patriots fate hinges on the health of Cam Newton, but if Newton plays 16 games, they could win the division. The defense has to replace Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy, but otherwise should be one of the better defenses in the AFC and this team has the preparation and game-day advantage of Belichick.

Phil Alexander

New England's defense remains championship caliber. They'll have to remake their offense on the fly with Cam Newton but have earned the benefit of the doubt. The Bills can put some heat on New England for the division crown and will once again be in the mix for a wildcard berth.

Andrew Davenport

I like what Devin had to say about Miami. So often we see teams do odd things with personnel decisions during a rebuild that it looks like they don't really have a plan. Brian Flores has done an absolutely fantastic job of turning over the roster with an obvious understanding of what his team needs are. As Devin said, the defensive additions are strong, and I like this team to be much more competitive this year. Having said that, the growing pains on offense might be too much to overcome so I can't pick them to make the playoffs quite yet.

Buffalo has a strong defense still and that will keep them in the conversation for a playoff spot on it's own. But while Josh Allen might be a good fantasy quarterback, there just isn't any precedent for a passer with his accuracy limitations suddenly solving those in the NFL. He's a gamer and he'll be good enough to win 8-10 games every year, but I have my doubts as to whether he can take the next step and dethrone the kings. I do think they'll go back to the playoffs, but that feels a little bit like that might be their ceiling with Allen.

The Patriots are still the class of the division until further notice and despite the strides Miami made, and the strong Bills defense, New England still has the best defense in the division due to the combination of coaching and personnel. If Cam Newton or Jarrett Stidham deliver competent quarterback play, as I expect one of them will, then they're still the team to beat. I think this leaves the division putting two teams in, but not three.

Miami has the feel of being a year away, and I can't get behind the Jets until they fix their offensive line and get rid of Adam Gase. I do believe in Sam Darnold, but they have a bottom tier overall roster and Bob pointed out the major problem I see - their locker room seems to be a complete mess. I'd be surprised to see them make it in.

Is there a team in this division that will challenge for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft?

The Short Answer

Maybe so -- the Jets

Jordan McNamara

I think both Miami and the Jets could be the first overall pick. I really like what Miami is doing with their team building, especially after over-performing low expectations in 2019, but I do not think they are still a bottom 10 team in the league. I think it is more likely the Jets are the number 1 pick. Darnold is a question mark and the team is dysfunctional under Adam Gase

Devin Knotts

While I expect most people to say yes here, these teams are all good enough that they won't have the number one pick. Sam Darnold is in for a growth season. Entering his third year in the NFL, he is still younger than Joe Burrow at just 23 years old, and while the talent at the wide receiver position is still lacking, Burrow and the Jets defense should win enough games to stay out of the cellar.

Andy Hicks

If my selections hold true it is almost impossible to conceive that even a bad Belichick team will lose more than some of the teams clearly headed for struggle street.

Ryan Hester

No, there isn't. I'm with Devin in his opinion that this is a strong division. At the top, the AFC North is probably stronger, but when considering all four teams, Cincinnati hurts the North, which makes the East the strongest top-to-bottom.

Chad Parsons

I doubt it unless Sam Darnold is out for a stretch like he was in 2019. The Dolphins showed last year Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the way to lose the most games in a season and I see Fitzpatrick starting a chunk of games and possibly more this year. Like Jordan mentioned, I am notably skeptical of Sam Darnold as a franchise-elevating quarterback until shown otherwise and the weapon additions were not my favorite candidates in free agent Breshad Perriman and Round 2 selection Denzel Mims.

Jeff Haseley

My gut says the Jets and Dolphins will both be similar in terms of wins and losses. Provided we play a full season, I see both teams between six and eight wins which does not put them in contention to earn the #1 pick in the 2021 Draft.

Jason Wood

Absolutely. The Jets are an absolute mess. They have an aging offensive centerpiece who doesn't like his coach, and the coach didn't want. They have a franchise quarterback who, to this point in his career, has been a bottom rung starter. They have two young star safeties who are in flux -- one wants out, the other was allegedly on the trade block. The offensive line is a patchwork of unimpressive journeymen. It would be stunning if New York won more than 4 games this year.

Bob Henry

The Jets are the easy pick here. The team chemistry is combustious and it wouldn't take much for things to unravel quickly on the field. Sam Darnold must ascend into the league's top half of quarterbacks for this team to come close to New England or Buffalo - that means staying healthy, making better decisions, and minimizing turnovers. All three have plagued him so far. The Dolphins could be in the mix again if injuries strike at key positions, but Brian Flores has this team on an upward trajectory with a defense that could be problematic and an offense that could also take a few steps forward, particularly if Tua Tagovailoa is able to make any impact as a rookie.

Sigmund Bloom

The Dolphins didn't get the #1 pick with a lot worse roster than the one they'll enter 2020 with, they are no threat to end at #1 despite only being a long shot for the playoffs. The Jets are the team that could end up with the #1 pick because Adam Gase seems to have the Midas touch in reverse. Their best defender doesn't want to play for the team and the offense has a ton of turnover on the line and at wide receiver in a year with no offseason and a coach that is a megalomaniacal micromanager.

Phil Alexander

Adam Gase has done an admirable job carrying the mantle for Jeff Fisher, going 6-10, 7-9, and 7-9 in each of his last three seasons, respectively. It's a near-lock he'll keep the Jets in NFL purgatory rather than mess things up so badly they end up with the No. 1 pick.

Andrew Davenport

I don't think so, no. The Dolphins have shown that Ryan Fitzpatrick makes them competitive (and Tua Tagovailoa makes for a strong backup or potential future starter), so with that and the additions on defense, I think they'll win at least 5-6 games, with a chance to take a step beyond that. The Jets are the only real candidate but I think Phil is right in that Gase is just good enough to keep them in purgatory, but not challenging for the top pick in the draft. Obviously we all saw how bad they can be if they lose Darnold for a stretch, so that's a path to the top spot, but absent that I don't see any of these teams competing for the worst record in the league.