BOTTOM 5 PASSING MATCHUPS WEEK 13
To view all of our Week 13 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 13
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 13
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 13
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 13
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 13
Passing Matchup Chart Week 13
Arizona vs LA Rams
The Cardinals passing game appears stuck in neutral at the moment. There’s no questioning Kyler Murray’s long-term potential; with world-class athleticism and a live downfield arm, he’s staring down a scintillating future. But right now, he’s coping with the effects of a shoulder sprain that clearly hindered his all-around game in Sunday’s loss. As a passer, Murray’s upside is limited when he’s less able to explore the pocket and deliver down the field. He managed just 170 scoreless yards against the Patriots, with top wideout DeAndre Hopkins held to 55 in Stephon Gilmore’s doghouse. Until Murray’s health is better established, this attack is difficult to fully trust. Murray is always a top-tier fantasy play due to his rushing upside, but his air numbers - and those of Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and others - are in a holding pattern right now.
The Rams’ star-studded pass defense continues to clamp down on virtually all comers. They’ve allowed just a single opponent - the Bills’ Josh Allen back in Week 3 - to top 270 yards through the air, and no team has given up fewer touchdowns. Along the way, they’ve forced a handful of strong passers - Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady - into some of their worst games of the 2020 season. It’s never easy to contain this Rams pass rush, which still stands as one of the NFL’s most imposing. Aaron Donald leads the way, of course, routinely drawing double- and triple-team blocking but still leading the league with 10.0 sacks. His sack numbers don’t encapsulate all the ways he disrupts and sabotages opposing pass games - though they tend to wind up on an elite level anyway. And on the back end, cornerback Jalen Ramsey heads up a versatile, playmaking secondary poised to make life difficult for Hopkins. Ramsey is squarely in his prime as a shutdown cornerback, routinely moved around the formation to slow each opponent’s top wideout. He’s the primary reason Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, and DeVante Parker combined for a grand total of 80 yards in this matchup over the past month.
Washington at Pittsburgh
The Football Team has moved on from the short-lived Dwayne Haskins era, and it’s no longer interested in pretending to throw the ball. Alex Smith now heads a safe, no-frills attack that features dynamic wideout Terry McLaurin and little else. Smith has thrown deep (15+ yards downfield) on just 19 of his 155 attempts, sticking heavily to checkdowns to his backs. Over his five starts, runners Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic have commanded a whopping 35% of those targets. Of course, when Smith dials up McLaurin, great things tend to happen. The wildly impressive second-year wideout has fought through shoddy quarterbacking to produce 74+ yards in 9 of his 11 games. He’s a slam-dunk play regardless of situation, but there’s nothing else here that’s notable for fantasy purposes. Smith would do well to dink and dunk to 175 yards.
The Steelers continue to loom as one of fantasy’s most prohibitive pass-game matchups. It’s true they’ve benefited from a wildly favorable schedule of quarterbacks, from Jeff Driskel to Garrett Gilbert to Jake Luton to Robert Griffin III. But you can only play who’s scheduled, and they’ll now take on checkdown artist Alex Smith and Washington’s punchless pass game. That’s no slight to McLaurin, who’s proven he can produce in any matchup. But the Steelers are loaded with talent in the secondary, and it’s hard to project any production anywhere else. They’ve allowed just six wideouts to top 80 yards on the season - and none of their teammates was able to reach 60. Joe Haden and Steven Nelson have been up-and-down in man coverage, losing on a gamble here and there, but both make for difficult downfield assignments. And when this group is tested, Minkah Fitzpatrick looms as an elite playmaker on the ball in space. He and Terrell Edmunds are also a big reason tight ends have been all but erased in this matchup, averaging just 33 yards a game. Of course, everyone’s job is made easier with the league’s most disruptive pass rush working up front. The Steelers sit atop the league in pressure rate, quarterback hit rate, and sack rate, and they can weather the loss of edge man Bud Dupree. There are few more disqualifying fantasy matchups than this one; fantasy managers simply don’t have a legitimate reason to roll the dice in this spot.
Buffalo at San Francisco
The Bills have to be thrilled with quarterback Josh Allen’s Year 3 leap. After serving as little more than a caretaker for two seasons, Allen has taken nicely to the Bills’ new-look offense here in 2020. He’s averaging 275 yards a game, and he’s already topped 300 five times. Still, it’s worth noting that, unsurprisingly, most of his massive stat lines have come against some of the NFL’s weakest units. He shredded Seattle last month, for example, but struggled noticeably against the Patriots and Chargers as well. He’s certainly more prepared for a shootout now than ever before, armed with a dynamic go-to wideout in Stefon Diggs and a handful of situational weapons. But it’s fair to wonder how he’ll fare against Robert Saleh’s 49ers, who attack both the quarterback and the throw with aggression and ball skills.
The 49ers pass defense, decimated for most of 2020 by injury and illness, continues to round into dominant shape as the season wears on. Apart from a pair of shaky days against Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Fitzpatrick, they’ve allowed a paltry 6.1 yards per attempt and 193 a game through the air. Last Sunday they harangued Jared Goff and the Rams into just 198 yards, a 61% completion rate, and three pass-game turnovers. And Richard Sherman’s return to action only bolsters one of football’s most suffocating groups. He’ll now bookend with Jason Verrett, who’s putting up an All Pro-caliber season of his own, in outside coverage, which has been fantastic for most of the year. This unit isn’t flawless, of course, and strong receivers like Davante Adams (173 yards) and DK Metcalf (161) can certainly produce in this matchup. But it’s worth noting that virtually no one else has. While Metcalf erupted, for example, Tyler Lockett produced just 33 yards across the field that day. And while Goff targeted Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp relentlessly in both their meetings, the duo averaged a minuscule 4.5 yards on their 36 looks.
New England at LA Chargers
The Patriots haven’t seen a passing game this ineffective since the early-1990s Hugh Millen days. Cam Newton has been mostly solid in a game-manager role, but on a typical week, almost nothing is being asked of him as a passer. He’s thrown 25 passes or fewer in five of his nine full games, with just four touchdowns on the season. Last week’s dud (9 of 18 for 84 yards, with 2 interceptions) showed the absolute floor for Newton and his patchwork group of weapons. It won’t always be that bad, but it always at least could be. Jakobi Meyers (29% of targets since Week 7) and Damiere Byrd (18%) lead the way, which can’t be what Bill Belichick and staff had envisioned in August.
The Chargers haven’t faced a very daunting slate of quarterbacks over the past two months. Still, they can’t be accused of not taking care of business. They haven’t allowed a 250-yard passing game since Week 5, and they’ve been lethal for most top wideouts they’ve faced. Led by shutdown cornerback Casey Hayward, this secondary has all but erased the likes of D.J. Chark (26 yards on 7 targets), DeVante Parker (31 on 7), and most recently Stefon Diggs (39 on 9) from their respective games. Hayward actually didn’t suit up last week against Diggs and the Bills, but looks likely to return sooner rather than later. He’d started 106 straight games prior to that, after all. Across the field, Michael Davis continues his ascent as a star in coverage. The team has moved edge rusher Melvin Ingram III to injured reserve but has welcomed back nickel man Chris Harris as well, rounding the secondary back into shape. Even if Hayward isn’t rushed back immediately, it’s hard to see the Patriots’ wobbly group causing much trouble here.
Atlanta vs New Orleans
The Falcons fielded a powerful passing game just two years ago, but things have shifted since then. Matt Ryan and his weapons are sometimes goaded into shootouts, which can require high volume and make for strong fantasy weeks. But their efficiency has dipped of late; now, they desperately need that volume to put up those week-winning numbers. Over the past two weeks, Ryan has completed just 54% of his throws at 5.5 yards apiece. The absence of Julio Jones, of course, explains some of those struggles. Jones remains a walking mismatch at age 31, and Ryan has historically produced much better with him. But Jones is also a weekly question mark in terms of health, and this season-long hamstring injury doesn’t look ready to go away. When he’s out, this offense leans heavily on Calvin Ridley, who’s effective (84 yards per full game) but not nearly as strong a No. 1 option.
The Saints continue to field something of a boom-or-bust pass defense, one just as capable of suffocating an offense as collapsing for a quarter at a time. Just two weeks ago, they bullied Ryan and these Falcons into a truly horrendous day through the air (19 of 37 for 232 yards, with 2 interceptions). Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been up-and-down here in 2020, at least in comparison to his usual dominant self. But he’s still a rock-solid shutdown guy, and the main cog in successful matchups against Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, and Robby Anderson. They may spend a week without Janoris Jenkins, who left last Sunday’s game with a minor knee injury. Jenkins has enjoyed a fine bounce-back season in New Orleans, creating splash plays on the ball while taking some degree of pressure off Lattimore. Overall, though, this unit shouldn’t have much trouble treading water if he sits. Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson (a combined 16.0 sacks and 30 quarterback hits) lead a dominant pass rush that always makes life easier for the secondary personnel. In a nutshell, this is not an ideal spot to expect Ryan to re-emerge as a fantasy dynamo. That was made clear two weeks ago, and nothing apparent has changed since.