Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
- Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-106), LOSS -1.325 units
- New Orleans Saints -4 (-110), WIN +1.00 unit
Week Profit: -0.325 units
Total Profit: -6.15 units
Player Future Wager
Patrick Mahomes II to win MVP (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Despite the early-season hype trains that built up steam in favor of Josh Allen and Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes II has emerged as the heavy favorite to win the MVP this season. Mahomes is currently on pace to throw for over 4,750 yards, 43 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions this season. Perhaps most importantly for the NFL MVP award, his team is winning games. The Chiefs currently sit at 9-1, just 1 game back from the 10-0 Pittsburgh Steelers for the top seed in the AFC this season. Nobody's consistency and gaudy production compares to Mahomes' right now, and the chances of anyone matching him down the stretch are slim. Currently, Russell Wilson is listed as the second-most-likely MVP candidate, but his struggles in recent weeks have plummeted his odds in this market. It is tough to envision a circumstance where Wilson bounces back at a level that would surpass what Mahomes is doing this season. Overall, Mahomes is likely at least to 60-percent to win this award, which would command a price of -150 or higher. Betting on Mahomes at just -125 is a fantastic value bet that can give you a rooting interest in what is one of the most impressive seasons we have ever seen from a quarterback.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5, -104) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3.5 (-104), risk 1.56 units to win 1.50 units
The Kansas City Chiefs are firing on all cylinders right now, especially on offense, where they have scored at least 30 points in 7 out of 10 games this year, including their last 4 outings. With the clear-cut MVP front-runner, Patrick Mahomes II, leading the team's attack, there is no reason to expect regression from this unit in the near future. Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy combine to call one of the league's most creative offensive attack, which now includes putting the quarterback into motion in goal-to-go situations. At risk of stating the obvious, I will point out that Kansas City's offense is the number-one offense in the NFL, both in terms of total DVOA and points-per-game. The most intriguing feature of this matchup against Tampa Bay's defense is the Buccaneers' tendency to blitz the quarterback and force the ball out of the passer's hands quickly. Tampa Bay blitzes on 41.9-percent of passing plays, the third-highest mark in the NFL. One of the many ways that Patrick Mahomes II separates himself from the rest of the NFL as a quarterback is his ability to shred opposing defenses when they send additional pass-rushers his way. His 98.0 QBR against the blitz is the second-highest mark at this point in the season since 2006. The uncanny speed with which Mahomes processes opposing defenses dictates the way they defend him. The reigning Super Bowl MVP is blitzed less than any other quarterback in the NFL besides Philip Rivers-- defenses clearly do not want to leave their secondaries shorthanded against the Chiefs' talented receiving corps. This weekend, Tampa Bay's defense will either need to make a dramatic change to their gameplan. Otherwise, they run the risk of Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City offense beating them with quick passes that get their exceptionally talented playmakers the ball in space with fewer defenders behind the ball to make tackles.
Opposite Kansas City's remarkably-consistent attack, Tampa Bay's offense has yet to find a groove this season. On the whole, they rank 6th in the NFL in points-per-game and 10th in DVOA. However, the offense's struggles across three of their last four outings are cause for concern. A 25-point performance against the Giants, a 3-point performance against the Saints, and a 24-point performance against the Rams have highlighted the weak spots in the team's offense. Tom Brady has been inconsistent under-center, and his ability to properly distribute targets to the team's incredible receiving corps has been worrying. Head coach, and anointed quarterback guru, Bruce Arians has been highly critical of his quarterback's play in recent weeks. Initially, in response to a question regarding Mike Evans' involvement in the passing attack, or lack thereof, Arians noted that Evans was doing his job and getting open. Still, Brady was not throwing the ball his way. Now, following a 216-yard and 2-interception game last weekend against the Rams, Bruce Arians stated that he believes the team's struggles in the passing game against high-end defenses are a product of Brady getting confused by what coverages are being thrown at him. If true, this is highly concerning; a quarterback with Brady's experience and pedigree should not be struggling to process coverages at this point in the season. If this is the issue at hand, rest assured that the Chiefs have studied the tape and will continue the trend, forcing Brady to dissect complex coverage schemes and prove his head coach wrong. Over time, Tampa Bay's offense should improve, as the added reps with their overhauled offense featuring new key contributors at quarterback, running back, tight end, and wide receiver will build chemistry over time. However, at this point in time, they cannot afford to operate at anything less-than 100-percent against arguably the best team in the NFL.
Both the Buccaneers and the Chiefs rank amongst the best teams in the league this season. Currently, the Chiefs are the most likely team to win the Super Bowl, according to the betting market, and the Buccaneers are the fourth-most-likely champions this season. Right now, the Chiefs are simply on another level compared to the Buccaneers and almost every other team in the NFL. According to my numbers, this matchup projects as nearly a 6-point game, leading us to a 1.56-unit wager on the Chiefs to cover the 3.5-point spread and net 1.5 units in a victory.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-6) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
PICK: NEW YORK GIANTS -6, risk 1.10 units to win 1.00 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook
I never thought the day would come that the New York Giants would make their way onto the Beating the Odds betting card, but here we are. This weekend, the G-Men make their way up to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals, who just lost their starting quarterback, Joe Burrow, to a season-ending injury last weekend. Brandon Allen, a 28-year-old career backup with just 3 appearances to his name, will fill in under center for the Bengals, and this should spell trouble for Cincinnati. Although I was exceptionally bearish on the Giants entering this season, their recent improvements are undeniable. Although a soft schedule aids the results, New York is 3-2 across their last 5 games, with the 2 losses coming by a combined 3 points. One key component of the Giants' improvement is their scoring output. The team opened the season with 4 consecutive games with 16 or fewer points, but they have surpassed 20 points scored in every game since that point. Within the offense, one notable alteration has been the increased reliance upon Daniel Jones' rushing ability. Jones has run for at least 45 yards in 5 out of 10 games this season, including 3 of his last 5 outings. This added dimension has increased the Giants' scoring efficiency as they approach the red zone, as defenses have not yet properly accounted for the fact that he is a threat to pull the ball and run with it himself for large chunks of yardage. Expect the Giants' offense to continue on its upward trajectory this weekend when they face off with Cincinnati's 30th-ranked defense, according to DVOA. The most glaring feature of the Bengals' struggling defense is their inability to win in the trenches. The Bengals have recorded just 13 sacks thus far this season, the 4th-fewest in the entire league. If they remain unable to apply pressure on the quarterback, as expected, look for Daniel Jones to post one of his strongest passing performances of the season this weekend, as his struggles are largely a product of his inability to perform and protect the football under duress.
On the offensive side of the football for Cincinnati, there is very little to be excited about at this point in the season, aside from Tee Higgins. Higgins, the team's second-round draft pick from Clemson University, has surpassed all expectations this season, as he averages over 60 yards-per-game and has multiple 100-yard performances under his belt already. Unfortunately, now with Brandon Allen at the helm, expectations should be tempered for Cincinnati's entire offense. Across Allen's three appearances, nothing about his performance suggests he is worthy of starting this game for the Bengals. He has completed just 46-percent of his total pass attempts in the NFL, averages only 171 yards-per-game through the air, and nets only 4.9 yards-per-attempt. Considering the general lack of data on Allen, we can also look back to his collegiate During his senior campaign, Allen was held to under 250 passing yards in 7 out of his 13 games. Although his 30 passing touchdowns may look impressive on the surface, almost half of these scores came across only 2 games, 1 of which went to overtime. When all was said and done, Brandon Allen's collegiate career was deemed worthy of the 201st selection in the 2016 NFL Draft, and he had yet to make an appearance in the NFL until last year. Nothing about his resume suggests he is worthy of starting this game over any other option the Cincinnati Bengals have, and the offense will suffer as a result. To make matters worse, the Bengals are matching up against an improving defense, which has held each of its last 5 opponents under 26 points. This season, the New York Giants hold the 12th-best scoring defense in the NFL, and that mark can be expected to improve after a strong showing on Sunday afternoon.
Overall, the combination of lackluster performances in the trenches on both sides of the football to go along with a backup quarterback leading the offense will render the Bengals incapable of competing for a victory this weekend. Opposite them, the New York Giants are improving weekly in all facets of the game. In this clash between two teams trending in opposite directions, New York projects as 8-point favorites, which leads us to a 1.1-unit wager on the Giants to cover the 6-point spread and net 1.0-unit of profit in a victory.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about the upcoming weekend of football!
