Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
Week 5 review
- Dallas Cowboys -8.5 (-105): LOSS -1.05 units, CLV: -.65 points
Week Profit: +1.05 units
Total Profit: -3.09 units
Total CLV: +5.23 points
Last weekend, our lone play of the week ended up falling short, as the Dallas Cowboys eeked out a close victory over the New York Giants. The story was much the same for the Cowboys in Week 5 as it had been all season leading up to that point; horrid turnover luck put the team at a disadvantage immediately out of the gates. An early interception off the hands of Ezekiel Elliott led to the Giants jumping out to a quick two-score lead. Ultimately, the Cowboys' passing attack kicked it into high-gear and lit up the scoreboard for the middle portion of the game. In a horrific turn of fate for Dallas' franchise quarterback, Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome ankle/leg injury in the second half that will keep him sidelined for the remainder of the season. While Andy Dalton is a capable backup quarterback, his ceiling within this offense does not come remotely close to the ceiling with Dak under center. Regardless of fandom, personal ties, or NFL betting interests, it is horrible to see one of the NFL's budding stars go down with such a horrific injury in such a pivotal season. Fortunately, all reports lead us to believe that Dak's surgery went smoothly and he should be able to return to the field in a shade over six-months.
Now, let's get into this weekend's plays, of which there are two. As always please ensure you are never gambling more than you can afford to lose, and try to have as much fun as possible along the way.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-1.5, -105) vs. CHICAGO BEARS
Pick: Panthers -1.5, Risk 1.05 units to win 1.0 unit
Although the beginning of the Nick Foles era in Chicago was one of the most exciting and awe-inspiring performances of this young NFL season, the veteran replacement quickly came back down to earth last weekend. The latter portion of Foles' career has featured some of the highest highs of any NFL quarterback, but they have not come without their fair share of lows to match. In the grand scheme of things, Nick Foles is likely a better quarterbacking option for the Bears than Mitchell Trubisky. However, he remains below-average when comparing him to the rest of the NFL, likely ranking in the bottom-third of the league amongst current starters. Last weekend, according to rbsdm.com, Foles dropped back to pass 46 times, registered -0.02 EPA/play, and posted a -5.0-percent CPOE. Taking all of this into account, his estimated QBR on the day was just 38.1, one of the lowest tallies of the week. According to Ben Baldwin's metric DAKOTA, which combines EPA/play and CPOE with the goal of maximizes predictiveness when measuring quarterback performance, ranks Foles as the 27th-best quarterback in the league (one spot ahead of Mitchell Trubisky, who checks in at 28th). For reference, the top-three quarterbacks in DAKOTA thus far this season are Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen, while the bottom-three quarterbacks are Brett Rypien, Dwayne Haskins, and Sam Darnold. These rankings certainly pass the eye test, and deeper investigation into the metric reveals it is a very strong shorthand measurement for quarterbacking talent and performance. I sound like a broken record at this point, as I reference Carolina's exceptionally young defense almost every week at this point in the article. Through five games, Carolina's defense has impressed-- when grading them on the curve of where preseason rankings projected this unit-- but a pair of injuries to impact pass-rushers could hinder the unit in Week 6. Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos, Carolina's best pass-rushers, have both landed on the injury report ahead of their clash with the Bears. Burns has practiced in a limited fashion throughout the week as he heals from a concussion. On the other hand, Gross-Matos, who is nursing an ankle injury, has been sidelined all week to this point. If one or both of these players can play this weekend, their ability to apply pressure on Nick Foles, a player with a penchant for holding onto the ball too long in the pocket, will be critical to this defense's success. If neither is unable to play, this battle between Chicago's offense and Carolina's defense could be a glorious display of ineptitude on both sides of the football that serves to benefit the Bears' offense, but only moderately. Overall, the Bears grade as a slightly better offensive team with Nick Foles at quarterback instead of Mitchell Trubisky, but still a below-average team, on the whole. If Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos are both sidelined for this weekend's game, Chicago's offense gains a slight advantage over Carolina's defense. However, if one or both of Carolina's best edge-rushers can suit up, this is likely a net-neutral matchup between a below-average offense and defense.
On the other side of the football, Carolina's offense throughout the first five weeks of this season has been one of the most impressive units in the league, especially when accounting for preseason expectations. Carolina's young roster, featuring numerous offseason acquisitions at critical positions, has developed much faster than most expected. At the top, head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have done an exceptional job leading this team to an unexpected 3-2 start to the season despite minimal offseason time to practice and implement their scheme. On the field, Carolina's new quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, has been one of the league's most pleasant surprises this year. Bridgewater ranks eighth in the NFL in DAKOTA this season, and the tape backs up the praise bestowed upon him by this ranking. Bridgewater is consistently making the proper reads and getting the ball out quickly to his playmakers with space to make defenders miss. On the outside, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel make up one of the NFL's most athletic receiving corps. Although Moore was the most-hyped player in this group heading into the season, Anderson has been the one setting records early in his Panthers' career, registering the most receptions of any player in Panthers' history through five games. The change in offensive role that accompanied Anderson's move from New York to Carolina has been an obvious success, and there is no reason to believe this will end anytime soon. This weekend, the Panthers' offense will match up against a Chicago Bears' defensive front-seven that is critical to the team's defensive success. Led by Khalil Mack, this unit is one of the better pass-rushing groups in the NFL, but Carolina's quick-hitting passing-attack should mitigate their impact. Overall, it is exceptionally difficult to project the performance and impact of any defense on a week-to-week basis, except at the extremes. This matchup does not qualify as one of those "extremes," which leads one to believe that the success of Carolina's offense will effectively depend upon how well they execute their gameplan and impose their will on the game.
In total, Carolina's offense, led by one of the smartest offensive minds in the NFL, has surpassed all preseason expectations thus far. They project to be an above-average unit throughout the remainder of the season, and this weekend, they should have a reasonable advantage over Chicago's defense, while Carolina's defense holds its own against the Bears' disappointing scoring attack. This game projects to be approximately a five-point game, pending the injury status of a few notable Panthers players. We will remain conservative and exercise caution given this uncertainty by making a 1.05 units wager on the Panthers -1.5 (-105) to cover the spread against the Bears in Week 6.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4.5, -105) vs. ATLANTA FALCONS
Pick: Vikings -4.5, risk 1.58 units to win 1.5 units.
It is tough to imagine a worse start to the season than what Atlanta Falcons fans have had to endure. After a pair of historic collapses in Weeks 2 and 3, the Falcons never posed a threat to either the Packers or Panthers in Weeks 4 and 5. Following the Week 5 loss to an NFC South rival, head coach Dan Quinn was relieved of his duties, moving Raheem Morris to the top of the ranks within the organization as head coach. Morris, much like Quinn, is a defensive-minded coach, but his results are mediocre at best when in control. Morris has been the head coach and/or defensive coordinator of a defense for at least a part of four seasons in his NFL coaching career: from 2009 through 2011 in Tampa Bay, when he was the team's head coach and this season in Atlanta. In Tampa Bay, his defensive units across his three seasons graded as a firmly below-average unit one year, a league-average unit the next, and one of the worst in the league in his final season as head coach. In 2020, Morris was promoted to become the defensive coordinator of the Falcons before the season started, and once again, his defense is one of the worst in the league. The only redeeming quality for Atlanta's projections on the defensive side of the ball is purely speculative; could anybody not named Dan Quinn be an upgrade for this unit simply due to the fact that it is not Dan Quinn? Potentially, but that is not something to hang your hat on this weekend when picking and choosing the best spots to wager on the NFL. I noted in my analysis of the previous game that it is difficult to quantify and project the defensive impact on a game except at the extremes. The Falcons defense qualifies as one of the extremes; we can confidently project them to be one of the worst in the league, giving Minnesota's offense a substantial boost in projected efficiency this weekend. Overall, there are many gripes to be had with Minnesota's offensive approach. Their offense is too run-heavy for its own good, and their steep investment in Kirk Cousins under center helped to force Stefon Diggs, one of the league's best wide receivers, out of town this summer. Cousins' passing prowess has been acceptable this season, as he ranks 20th in the NFL in DAKOTA. Cousins has been on-target with over 80-percent of his passes this season, but his risk aversion and lack of high-upside pass attempts hamstring his DAKOTA rating-- many high-upside deep balls grade well in DAKOTA because the reward of a completion typically exceeds the risk associated with the deep-ball, which is generally overstated. Fortunately, Cousins is equipped with a pair of top-end receivers on the outside to help maximize his per-play efficiency through the air. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, a rookie out of LSU, both grade as top-10 receivers in the NFL this season, and despite a lack of usage, both have managed to produce impressive receiving totals through five games. Elsewhere, Dalvin Cook, Minnesota's number-one running back, is likely to miss this weekend's game due to a groin injury he sustained last week against Seattle. Alexander Mattison is expected to step into the starting spot and assume a bell-cow role in the Vikings' offense. Last week, Mattison surpassed rushing-yardage-expectation on half of his carries, one of the highest rates in the NFL for the week. Mattison is perfectly capable of stepping into Cook's role in this attack without a notable drop-off in offensive efficiency for Minnesota. In sum, the Vikings, who have already proven capable of lighting up the scoreboard against inferior defenses this season, should have a substantial edge over the Atlanta Falcons' defense this weekend in the first game since Dan Quinn's firing.
The Atlanta Falcons' offensive attack has done its best to match the level of disappointment of the team's defense in recent weeks. Injuries to key pass-catchers top the laundry list of red-flags for Atlanta's offense this weekend. Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst, and Russell Gage, three of the team's four receivers, are all questionable for this weekend, which compounds the issue of Matt Ryan's apparent decline at quarterback. Watching Ryan's recent passing performances makes one thing clear; defenses no longer respect his arm talent or ability to beat a secondary when all of the chips are on the table. Atlanta's veteran quarterback ranks 25th in the league in DAKOTA through 5 weeks, and only 75-percent of his total pass attempts this season have been "on-target," one of the lowest marks in the NFL amongst starters. Minnesota's defense has been unimpressive this season, allowing at least 23 points to all 5 of their opponents this season, but the lack of explosiveness from Atlanta's offense sans-Julio Jones leads one to believe they are incapable of capitalizing. Recent disappointments against the similarly porous defenses of the Packers and Panthers, who rank 29th and 22nd in the NFL in DVOA allowed, respectively, leave us with massive cause for concern regarding the long-term outlook of this attack with an aging and deteriorating quarterback at the helm.
In total, Atlanta's lackluster offense stands to gain zero advantage over Minnesota's defense this weekend, despite Minnesota's presumed weakness on this side of the football. Conversely, Minnesota's offense has proven to be capable of scoring points in bunches against the league's bottom-rung of defensive units. This matchup projects to be approximately a 7.3 point game in favor of the Vikings, leading us to make a 1.58 unit wager on Minnesota -4.5 to cover the spread and net 1.50 units.
Summary of Picks
- Carolina Panthers -1.5 (-105), risk 1.05 units to win 1.0 unit
- Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-105), risk 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, concerns, or feedback regarding this article and how I can improve it moving forward