6 Divisive Early-Round Running Backs, and When to Draft Them

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You don't need us to tell you Christian McCaffrey is the No. 1 running back, everyone agrees. Even if we made a case for another tailback (and we're not going to), it wouldn't matter -- McCaffrey is the 1st player drafted in nearly every draft.

But what about those running backs where there isn't a consensus view? At Footballguys, unlike many sites, we allow all of our staff to share their rankings. In fact, we encourage it. But the reality is most subscribers focus on the consensus of all of our disparate viewpoints. With someone like McCaffrey, where 15 of 15 rankers have him No. 1, our individual opinions don’t matter much. But what about the players you’re targeting who we see quite differently?

Those are the picks that can make or break your draft. In the first three rounds of a 12-team draft, 18 to 20 running backs will come off the board. Two or three rankings spots may not seem like much, but in the early rounds, it's the difference between passing on someone or targeting them.

With the draft season underway, here are the highest-variance early-round running backs and how you should handle them.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 9.7
• Average Draft Position: 7^th

The Details: On average, 15 staff members rank Edwards-Helaire 9.7, although that slots as RB8. The median ranking is 9th, but there's a wide range of expected outcomes. Everyone on staff sees Edwards-Helaire as a top-20 back, but some see him as high as RB5 -- which justifies an early first-round pick, while some see him as low as RB17 -- which would mean a late second-round pick. The mode ranking is RB6, with four staffers ranking him there. At least one staff ranks him RB5, RB6, RB7, RB8, RB9, RB11, RB13, RB14, RB15, and RB17, which explains his 3.89 standard deviation. Edwards-Helaire has an average draft position of RB7, which means our staff is nearly three ranking spots lower than ADP. Six of fifteen rankers have Edwards-Helaire at or higher than ADP, while nine have him lower.

The Upside Case by Phil Alexander: If you're afraid to draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the top half of the first round, you're overthinking it. The only thing ever standing between Edwards-Helaire and elite fantasy production in year-one was Damien Williams. Williams removed himself from the equation, and none of Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, or DeAndre Washington, are good enough reasons to fade Edwards-Helaire as a rookie. Not enough people seem to realize pass protection won't impact Edwards-Helaire's opportunities to fill up the box scores. Kareem Hunt played on 65% of Kansas City's offensive snaps as a rookie despite pass-blocking on only 11% of those snaps. He was too busy carrying the ball, running routes, and scoring fantasy points when he was on the field for pass-blocking to matter. Why won't the same be true of Edwards-Helaire? His competition is too weak, the training camp buzz too loud, and Patrick Mahomes II II' endorsement too meaningful to manufacture reasons to doubt him.

The Downside Case by Jordan McNamara: I would not take Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round. While the narrative is Kansas City is a high level running back landing spot, the Mahomes-era has been different for the Andy Reid offense. In the past two seasons, Kansas City ranks 19th in halfback targets, 16th in halfback receptions, and 28th in halfback carries. Combined in the past two seasons, Kansas City ranks 28th in halfback touches. In 2019, the top two running backs in touches, Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy, combined for 270 touches. To warrant a pick in the first round, Clyde Edwards-Helaire would need to virtually consolidate that entire workload and I'm skeptical that happens, particularly with others like DeAndre Washington and Darrel Williams as committee backs in a condensed offseason for a rookie. Otherwise, Edwards-Helaire needs Kansas City to expand the running back volume. With Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman all back in 2020, I'm struggling to see Kansas City take a big shift in offensive construct.

Conclusion: He's A First-Rounder, but Don't Get Caught Up in the Momentum

Edwards-Helaire was a popular rookie pick by being the only running back drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, but his fantasy stock skyrocketed once presumptive starter Damien Williams opted out because of Covid-19 concerns. Our staff is a house divided on whether his popularity has grown too far, too fast. Six (40%) of our rankers think he'll justify his ADP, while 60% believe there are at least one or two more attractive running backs to target in the second half of the first round. Given his situation, it's entirely justifiable to use a first-round pick on him, but don't overlook players like Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, or Derrick Henry for him.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 10.9
• Average Draft Position: 11^th

The Details: On average, Nick Chubb slots 10.9 in our rankings, with a median of 11. Both the average of staff consensus and the median are in line with his ADP of RB11, but there's a 3.58 standard deviation among the group. The most bullish analyst sees Chubb as a top-5 back, while the most bearish sees him as RB18, which means they wouldn't consider drafting him given how far away that is from ADP. Eleven of fifteen rankers have Chubb as a top-12 back, and eight of them rank him at or higher than his ADP. Only four staff see Chubb falling short of his draft price, and only one ranker puts him outside the Top 15.

The Upside Case by Matt Waldman: I think most of my peers are going to say he's overvalued due to the presence of Kareem Hunt. I think this is a misguided notion based on Hunt's talent, box score production in last year's scheme, and ignorance about the new scheme under Kevin Stefanski. The first point is understandable: Hunt is a top-12 RB talent with elite production potential. It's hard people to grasp that Chubb is the clearly better back unless you really study the position with a fine eye. Chubb is a better tackle breaker, faster, and more accomplished with a variety of run schemes. He's also a better receiver than characterized. Hunt's stretch-run was under a different coaching regime and scheme that failed miserably with a cohesive and strategic approach to offense. This year, Stefanski brings Gary Kubiak's' run game from Minnesota that features ONE back and only one back on the field a vast majority of the time and uses a ton of fullback, H-Back, and tight end looks to lead the way for that runner. Hunt will get enough touches to maybe earn fantasy RB3 production. Chubb's floor is low-end RB1 production with Hunt. Without Hunt, Chubb is the best back and fantasy back in football.

The Downside Case by Justin Howe: Over the past five seasons, we've seen 32 seasons of 250+ PPR points from a running back. Only four of those were achieved with fewer than 40 receptions, and Chubb doesn't have a prayer of reaching that mark, so he's at a huge disadvantage among the RB1 crowd. Kareem Hunt is the Browns' preferred receiving back; he's the main reason Chubb only caught 11 balls over the final 8 weeks last year. Those drafting Chubb as an RB1 are banking heavily on long runs and big touchdown numbers, which isn't a shrewd move in the second and third rounds.

Conclusion: Don't Fear Kareem Hunt, Believe in Chubb

Don't worry about Kareem Hunt. Plenty of running backs have to share the backfield, but Chubb was arguably the second-best back in football before Hunt joined the active roster, and was still an every-week starter with him. Eleven staff members see Chubb as no worse than RB12, and more than half of our staff believe Chubb will outperform his ADP. We're not saying Chubb is worth taking ahead of most of the backs going earlier, but if he's the top-ranked tailback on the board when your pick is due, don't feel like you're settling.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 14.5
• Average Draft Position: 14^th

The Details: Aaron Jones is the most divisive top-25 running back this year, with the optimist (me) sitting at RB6 while the most pessimistic putting Jones down at RB25. The consensus average is 14.5, and the median is 14, which is in line with his average draft position of RB14. With a standard deviation of 5.4, there's no clarity among our rankers. We very much see Jones in a multitude of different lights. Or do we? Nine of fifteen rankers have Jones between RB12 and RB15, so it's really the outliers who are adding volatility to the situation. Eleven staff expect Jones to meet or exceed his draft position, and only three rankers expect Jones to finish the season outside the Top 20.

The Upside Case by Jason Wood: Due respect to my colleagues, but many labeled Jones overvalued, and couldn't be more wrong if they thought the Jaguars are going to be Super Bowl champions. Jones is one of the true values of the early rounds. Yes, his 19 touchdowns last year will be hard to replicate, but he doesn't have to come close to scoring 19 times to justify a higher draft slot. He gained more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage along with 49 receptions as one of the main engines in Matt LaFleur's offense. What's changed? The team added A.J. Dillon in the draft, but he's a threat to Jamaal Williams as the No. 2, not to Jones. We know Jones can be a league-winner, we don't have to project any growth or change in role. Fantasy analysts too often fall in love with what might be, at the expense of celebrating what is.

The Downside Case by Drew Davenport: The arguments against Jones are pretty familiar by now, but it bears mentioning again that things lined up exactly how he needed them to last year in order to post the fantasy points he did. Yes, the touchdowns seem bound for regression, but the more concerning factor is that Jones was not used very much in the passing game with Davante Adams on the field. When Adams played (12 games), Jones topped 37 receiving yards in 2 of 12 games and had more than two receptions only three times in those games. Yet while Jones was still a very good running back for fantasy purposes without as much receiving work, it took his unsustainable touchdown barrage to remain as such. Under Matt LaFleur, the trend of using other running backs is going to continue as they selected a running back in the draft, so if there are fewer touchdowns, a poor receiving outlook, and more competition, then Jones is being overvalued where he's being drafted.

Conclusion: Worth Drafting at ADP (Says the Staff), Worth Drafting a 1/2 Round Higher (Says Me)

Full disclosure, I'm the positive outlier on Jones and see things a bit differently than our staff. Many say he's overvalued, but as the rankings show, most rank him in-line or better than his draft position. So they 'doth protest too much. While I would (and do) draft him at the end of the first round with glee, you'll be able to target him in the second round in most drafts. And the vast majority of our staff thinks he's worth his draft spot, but are skeptical he can match last year's top-3 finish.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 16.2
• Average Draft Position: 19^th

The Details: James Conner has an ADP of 19th, but we rank him 16.2, on average, and our median ranking is RB16. Expectations for Conner are as divisive as any back not named Aaron Jones, with 18 spots separating the highest (RB5) and lowest (RB23) rankings. Collectively, our ranking is nearly three spots higher than his draft position, with thirteen of fifteen rankers expecting Conner to meet or exceed his ADP. Only one staffer sees Conner as a top-12 (RB1) option, but everyone sees him as nothing worse than a low-end RB2.

The Upside Case by Matt Waldman: If you read my work throughout the spring and summer, you know that I've been touting him as the biggest value among early-round players, period. Last year when Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster battled injury and Ben Roethlisberger was gone for most of the year, Conner's yards after contact accounted for 57 percent of his rushing yards because as good as his offensive line is, a subpar passing game allows opponents to focus on stopping the run as a priority. In 2018, a healthy Conner, Roethlisberger, and Smith-Schuster made a big difference for Conner and the offensive line's production as a top-10 fantasy option who averaged a broken tackle at an elite ratio of one per every 10.8 attempts. Conner is healthy, an excellent receiver, and will be the feature back. He's going to be a top-10 fantasy RB.

The Downside Case by Andy Hicks: His 2018 season was massive and all, but looking at the 2019 season of James Conner and we get every indication that his future lies as a backup or committee back. Just like with JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Steelers are drafting a replacement every year in roughly the same slot. In the case of Conner, we have Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, and this year, Anthony McFarland Jr/a>. With Conner in the final year of his rookie deal, it is unlikely he is in Pittsburgh next year. He will be given every chance to start and keep the job, but the team will have one eye on the future and we will see others given a chance to earn a role.

Conclusion: Draft Conner At ADP With Confidence

Matt Waldman is on an island advocating Conner as a top-5 running back, but don't mistake the lack of support for his bull case as meaning we're negative on Conner. Our consensus ranking is nearly three spots higher than his ADP, and 13 of 15 rankers believe he'll meet or exceed the RB19 cost. Even his doubters see Conner as a fantasy No. 2, which means you're getting a high-floor, high-ceiling player at a fair price.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 17.9
• Average Draft Position: 16^th

The Details: Leonard Fournette ranks 17.9, on average, among 15 staff members with a standard deviation of 4.54 -- the second-highest among consensus top-25 backs. Sixteen spots are separating his biggest fan (RB10) from his biggest doubter (RB26). His median ranking is RB18, which is two places lower than his average draft position of RB16. Five of fifteen staff expect Fournette to meet or exceed his ADP, while ten do not. Yet, among the outliers, three rankers see Fournette as a top-12 option while only one thinks he'll finish outside the Top 25.

The Upside Case by Chad Parsons: Fournette has three straight top-12 seasons in PPR PPG and yet still has a fantasy market stink to him as a Rodney Dangerfield type (no respect). Fournette is one of the few backs who rarely leaves the field with a high ceiling if his touchdowns even marginally increase in 2020. Chris Thompson offers some semblance of competition for passing downs, but Thompson has his own durability issues and is older than most would think (30) to not make his presence a reason to downgrade Fournette even in PPR formats.

The Downside Case by Sigmund Bloom: Fournette is a lame-duck back whose value came mainly from volume last year, especially in the passing game. Chris Thompson isn't known for his durability, but he is known for being a very productive passing down back while playing under new Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. Once the season is lost (which shouldn't take long), will the Jaguars want to see more of Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo to know how they fit in the team's future plans at running back? They already know where Fournette fits in 2021 - off of the roster.

Conclusion: Pass in the Second Round, Grin and Bear It in the Third

Leonard Fournette could justify his ADP if he has the same role he did a season ago, and only one staff member thinks he'll fall out of the Top 25. But two-thirds of our staff believe Fournette will fall short of his ADP, as there are concerns about the overall offensive productivity in Jacksonville and whether the team will stick with Fournette in a contract year, given they chose not to pick up his fifth-year option. If you're up toward the end of the second round and there are 15 running backs off the board, we think there are better options than Fournette. But if he falls into the third round and he's the top remaining runner on your board, it's not unreasonable to grab him at a discount.

Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 18.7
• Average Draft Position: 15^th

The Details: Todd Gurley has lost some luster with his move from Los Angeles to Atlanta, but how much has his shine dimmed? Our staff ranks him 18.7 among running backs, on average, with a range of RB11 (a fantasy No. 1) to RB24 (the last of the RB2s), with a standard deviation of 3.41. The median ranking at Footballguys is 19.0, versus his average draft position of RB15. Only four of fifteen staff think he'll meet or exceed his draft position, and our mean expectation is nearly four draft spots lower than ADP -- which is the highest disparity among all top-25 backs.

The Upside Case by Drew Davenport: Last summer at this time, I was off of Todd Gurley in a big way. But this summer I find myself thinking he's the best of the group of guys going in the third round when chasing that all-important second running back. Gurley's knee worries me, and the Falcons throw the ball a lot, but if there is anyone I can tell a story about in round three that makes me the most piqued, this year it's Gurley. The Falcons wanted Freeman to succeed so badly, and yet he wasn't up to it. Gurley may be on the downside of his career, but he is a far superior player to Freeman, and if he gets the receiving work that Freeman got, as well as locking down the red zone work, then he could easily stumble into 50 receptions and 8 touchdowns without much trouble - bad knee or not. Nobody in that running back room will give him a run for meaningful snaps if he can manage his knee and stay on the field.

The Downside Case by Jeff Haseley: Most people are either all-in or all-out on Todd Gurley as a fantasy option this year. He is coming off three consecutive double-digit touchdown seasons and Atlanta desperately needs a running back to handle the load. Gurley fits the bill. The downside is that he signed only a one-year deal, which suggests Atlanta may not be fully convinced he's healthy enough to sign to a longer deal. His degenerative knee condition is a concern. How long can he keep handling the load? He could be a big producer or the exact opposite and generally, the risk is too much for me to gamble on with such a high pick.

Conclusion: Wait a Half-Round Beyond ADP

Todd Gurley was the No. 1 fantasy running back in 2017 and 2018, and he "struggled" to an RB12 finish last year. So degenerative knee or not, it's clear the Falcons plan to allow him to be a workhorse and get the lion's share of high leverage opportunities, including goal-line plunges. If the Falcons game scripts go according to plan, Gurley will outperform his RB16 average draft position. Yet, most of our staff ranks him a few spots lower, because we're dubious of an aging back with a bad knee on a one-year contract. If you're drafting and there are only 15 running backs off the board, most of us have two or three players we would rather you target. But we don't have five or six. So take him if you like him, and aggressively snag him if he falls a half-round or more because the risk/reward quickly comes into balance.

If you're interested in more articles by Jason Wood