A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
They gave us 12 names. That's a lot at quarterback.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top guys, here are the four players who received the most votes:
- Carson Wentz - 6 votes
- Joe Burrow - 5 votes
- Jared Goff - 5 votes
- Matthew Stafford - 5 votes
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia
Phil Alexander: Wentz deserves credit for his QB8 finish in 2019, considering he was down to former undrafted free agent, Greg Ward, as his WR1 by season's end. Philadelphia made it a point to surround Wentz with speed this off-season to emphasize his ability in the vertical passing game. With DeSean Jackson back healthy, Jalen Reagor now onboard, and a full season of Miles Sanders catching passes out of the backfield, Wentz has overall QB1 in his range of possible outcomes.
James Brimacombe: The Eagles passing offense was completely banged up during the second half of last season as Wentz really only had his two tight ends to rely on getting the ball to. Even with all the injuries to the wide receiver position, Wentz still found a way to lead the Eagles to the NFC East title and finish as the QB8 last season with over 600 passing attempts for 4,039 yards and 27 passing touchdowns. Heading into the 2020 season, the Eagles have been trying to build up the receiving talent for Wentz, adding Jalen Reagor, John Hightower, Quez Watkins in the draft. Add in Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson coming back from injury along with J.J. Arcega-Whiteside with a potential rebound season. Don't forget about the emergence of Miles Sanders who caught 50 passes for 509 yards and 3 touchdowns and the best duo of tight ends in the league in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Wentz has all the weapons heading into the year and has a great shot at finishing as a top-five quarterback this season.
Andrew Davenport: Despite playing with a decimated wide receiver corps Wentz pulled off a notable feat - he threw a touchdown pass in every single game in 2019. He also had multiple scores in half of his games, and it isn't as if his touchdown rate was remarkable as he was at only 4.4%. Yet he was very consistent as a performer and found fantasy success despite the limitations. Now, he'll have DeSean Jackson back, Jalen Reagor through the draft, and the further development of Miles Sanders. Obviously he's had some issues with injuries, but with the rosy outlook for the Eagles offense his scoring rate can easily spike, and when he's on the field he's a rock-solid producer that is being undervalued at his current draft slot.
David Dodds: Wentz threw for 4,039 yards and 27 touchdowns and finished as QB8 in 2019 despite getting just 490 yards from his leading wide receiver. The Eagles invested in a first-round pick (WR Jalen Reagor) and return a cast of veterans that missed games last season due to injuries. In 2017, with a full suite of weapons, Wentz finished with the 8th most quarterback fantasy points despite missing three games with an injury. He is a high-reward / low-risk player that should be on everyone's radar this season.
Chad Parsons: Wentz has two top-eight finishes over the past three years and yet the weapons still have not been ideal for the Eagles quarterback. Wentz has two of the best tight ends in the NFL with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, ideally a more healthy version of Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson from a year ago (looking like Jackson is more likely than Jeffery early in the season), but the theme of the offseason was speed. Philadelphia splashed Round 1 of the draft with Jalen Reagor and then followed with John Hightower and Quez Watkins. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside was notably absent from a 2019 rookie season impact as well with a lingering injury. Plus Wentz has Miles Sanders entering his second season. Wentz is poised to make another top-8 (or better run) for a discounted sticker price.
Jason Wood: Carson Wentz has finished as the No. 8 fantasy quarterback in two of the last three seasons and was a No. 1 option in 2018 before getting hurt. When healthy, he's the perfect combination of a high floor and high upside. Although his injury history cannot be ignored, it's a misnomer to think any quarterback is a lock to play 16 games. Last year, Wentz was QB8 in spite of having the least productive receiving corps in the NFL over the last five seasons. The front office understandably made improving the receiving group a priority. First-round pick Jalen Reagor should start immediately. DeSean Jackson is healthy. And the team added three other rookie receivers who will fight for roster spots. The bar is so low, it's a guarantee the 2020 receivers are better than the 2019 unit. Yet, the team also has the most productive tight end duo in the league (Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert) and an excellent receiving back in Miles Sanders.
Players Receiving 5 Votes
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
Phil Alexander: The Bengals have the makings of an underrated offense with Burrow at the helm. The No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft has command of the pocket and proven ability to read pro-style defenses. He'll be an upgrade on Andy Dalton in year-one, and Cincinnati has no shortage of pass-catching weapons in A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, and John Ross. Burrow also ran the ball well last year at LSU, adding another fantasy-friendly dimension to his game.
Chris Allen: We think of quarterbacks as an extension of the head coach/offensive coordinator while they're on the field. In 2019, the Bengals started their first game under Zac Taylor with 51 pass attempts from Andy Dalton while on the road in Seattle. They still lost, but their 78.5% neutral passing laid out the blueprint for Cincinnati under Taylor. They just needed a better player to execute the scheme. Burrow and Taylor should mesh like Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have. Taylor's implemented concepts that had the team passing at a 63.8% rate in neutral situations. Burrow demonstrated his ability to create in and out of structure which will serve him well behind their offensive line. He also has some rushing upside with 115 attempts his final season at LSU. Plus, he'll have multiple prominent pass catchers to help him acclimate to the NFL. If you're employing a late-round quarterback strategy in 2020, Burrow should be one of your targets.
David Dodds: The Bengals might have the worst defense in the entire NFL so their opportunity to win games will need to come from outscoring their opponents. The Bengals threw the ball 616 times in 2019; They just didn't manage much production in those attempts. Burrow is a rookie, but he has a strong arsenal of wide receivers to throw to. The Bengals added the electric Tee Higgins with their first pick in the second round of the NFL Draft and get A.J. Green back from injury. All yards and touchdowns count in fantasy, and Joe Burrow looks poised to have games where he is forced to sling it as the team plays catchup football.
Ryan Hester: Burrow walks into a sneaky good fantasy football situation in Cincinnati. He has an offensive-minded head coach who runs a fast-paced offense; he had a defense that will provide shootout-friendly environments; and he’s athletic enough to score fantasy points on the ground — something we know can lead to unexpected fantasy success.
Dan Hindery: The Bengals pass defense was going to have issues even before losing top cornerback Trae Waynes to a pectoral injury. This is a team that is going to be playing from behind or in shootouts regularly. Burrow quietly one of the top groups of weapons in the NFL with a healthy A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd in the slot, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon. There is also more rushing upside here than many are crediting. The Bengals like to run the read-option near the goal line (Dalton was tied for fourth in quarterback rushing touchdowns) and Burrow is underrated as an athlete.
Jared Goff, LA Rams
James Brimacombe: Goff is coming off a disappointing season by some, but when you look at the numbers he had his most completions at 394 and attempts at 626 and finished as the QB12. In the last three seasons, Goff has been QB12, QB6, and QB12 and now with the Rams parting ways with Todd Gurley, we could be in line for another 600+ passing attempt season from Goff once again. The Rams have a nice bunch of pass receivers in Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp at the receiver position, and emerging Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett at the tight end position.
Andrew Davenport: After throwing 60 touchdown passes in 2017/2018 under Sean McVay for a 5.8% touchdown rate, Goff only managed 22 scores in 2019 with a touchdown rate of 3.5%. The term regression is used far too often in fantasy circles, but it would appear that Goff's mean touchdown rate is more in the range of 5%-6%, not 3.5%. The Rams still threw the ball the most in the league with 626 attempts, and they were very liberal with their play-action passing as well. Goff threw a league-leading 194 attempts out of play-action and recorded a league-best 1,564 yards from it as well. This bodes well for his chances to succeed this year like his first two years under McVay, rather than what appears to be an outlier in 2019. Bet on Goff to far exceed his ADP and be a value on draft day.
David Dodds: Goff has logged back-to-back 4,600+ yards passing seasons the last two years. His yards-per-attempt and touchdowns nose-dived in 2019, but his passing attempts and completions were up on the year. It was his third straight season as a top-12 quarterback. He has logged fourteen 300+ yard passing games in the last two years. At his current ADP, he is being drafted as a backup quarterback but should deliver starter production most weeks.
Chad Parsons: One of the easier bets to make for fantasy quarterbacks is when a productive profile is going for a discount. Enter Jared Goff in 2020. Brandin Cooks is gone, but the rest of the passing game is intact, plus they added dynamic running back Cam Akers and Van Jefferson with second-round selections. Goff has three straight seasons in the top-15 of the position, including a mid-QB1 level finish in his profile. Goff is one of the easier later-quarterback selections for 2020 drafts.
Jeff Pasquino: Goff and the Rams had a down year in 2019, but even with an offense that scored far less than in 2018 or 2017, Goff finished as a Top 12 fantasy quarterback for the third season in a row. Yes, Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley are gone, but Cooks was minimized last year in favor of shorter route runners Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods along with two big tight ends (Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett). Los Angeles loves to throw the ball, as Goff attempted 626 passes last year and only the Bengals lined up more in three-wide-receiver sets. Second rounder Van Jefferson will contend with Josh Reynolds for the WR3 role and to hopefully stretch defenses with an improved offensive line. Goff looks to me as a very safe QB2 with QB1 upside if the Rams get their passing game back to 2017 and 2018 production levels.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit
Phil Alexander: Before broken backbones ended his season in Week 9, Stafford ranked as the cumulative QB6 and would finish 2019 third at the position in fantasy points per game. Stafford was reportedly fully healed as far back as early-March, so a repeat is possible. The Lions putrid defense placed Stafford in favorable game scripts to pad his passing stats, and Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell did two things right during his first year in Detroit. He let Stafford throw deep on a league-leading 19.6% of his pass attempts and played up-tempo, even when not behind on the scoreboard. Bevell is still calling the shots on offense, and the Lions defense looks worse on paper than it did a year ago. At worst, Stafford is an affordable lead-man in a quarterback by committee approach.
Sigmund Bloom: Stafford meshed well with Darrell Bevell in their first year together to the tune of top 5-6 quarterback scoring in most leagues before his season was ended by a back injury. Concerns about back injuries are really the only reason to fade Stafford at an ADP that is well below the value he established last year.
Andrew Davenport: The Lions' signal-caller was having one heck of a year before succumbing to the back injury that ended his season. He threw a whopping 19 touchdowns over the first half of the season and was on pace for 5,000 yards passing and 38 scores when he went down. Stafford was criminally underdrafted last year coming off a weird 2018 where he had two different signal-callers and threw only 21 touchdown passes. This year, his ADP hasn't quite caught up with his situation. He has two legitimate downfield-touchdown threats at wide receiver and an up-and-coming tight end who is a red zone threat himself. Stafford looks like he's in the same spot offensively that he was last year, and the defense might even be worse in 2020. Stafford has top-six upside and he's lagging far behind that in ADP.
Jeff Haseley: Before injuring his back in Week 9 last year, Stafford was turning corners and playing efficiently with a QB6 ranking. He is fully healed from his back injury and appears to be ready to pick up where he left off, plus he has a potential elite fantasy wide receiver in Kenny Golladay at his disposal. Stafford is an excellent target as a QB2 to pair with someone like Drew Brees or Tom Brady, or a single starter if you elect to wait at the position. Don't wait too long though.
Matt Waldman: Stafford was on his way to one of his best seasons as an NFL quarterback before he fractured bones his in his back for the second consecutive year. Stafford still has the skill and the weaponry to reach his career highs. A median projection for this year is 4,500-4,700 yards and 30-34 scores, which is at near-elite QB1 fantasy production most years. He was on track for 5,000 yards and 38 scores last year.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Cam Newton, New England
Sigmund Bloom: If Newton is healthy, the quarterback competition in New England is just for show. He has been a perennial QB1 in fantasy leagues when healthy, and we should expect no different with the Patriots. Perhaps Newton's body is broken and we will find out when the season opens that he is a shell of his old self. If he isn't he fits very well in a cheap quarterback draft plan when paired with a safer high floor option.
Ryan Hester: A reasonable argument can be made that Newton won’t exceed his ADP. But with how quarterbacks work in fantasy football, I’ll sacrifice a 60/40 chance that Newton finishes around this ADP in exchange for the outside chance he finishes as a top-three fantasy football quarterback. Said another way, let’s compare Newton to a couple of players being selected near him — Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger. Let’s say that you project Goff and Roethlisberger to score more fantasy points than Newton, but you think Newton’s ceiling is QB3 while Goff’s and Roethlisberger’s are in the QB6-8 range. Newton should still be the preferred pick. First of all, picks this late in the draft are far from safe, and we should embrace the variance. Second, quarterback is a position where upside should be king.
Dan Hindery: You should not be drafting mid-round quarterbacks based upon their floor or even their median projections. It has never been easier to find solid fantasy producers at the position. Quarterbacks with realistic Top 5 fantasy upside are much rarer and more valuable. Newton has serious upside given his rushing ability. He is going to have great game plans each week that cater to his strengths. I am willing to gamble on a highly motivated Newton in a "prove it" year while pairing him with a higher floor mid-late round guys like Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, or Ryan Tannehill.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Andy Hicks: Drafting Ben Roethlisberger carries risk this year. At his age, fitness level, and durability concerns you need another solid option to complement him. If he can stay on the field he has the makings of a great season. Pittsburgh has four young wide receivers who were drafted in the second round or thereabouts, two good tight ends, and a solid group of reliable running hacks. This is probably his last hurrah so hope for the best, prepare for the worst and enjoy the ride.
Jeff Pasquino: How much does Ben Roethlisberger have left in the tank? That is the question as we enter the 2020 season. Coming off of a significant injury (elbow) that cost him nearly the entire 2019 season, Roethlisberger comes back as the clear starter for the Steelers. Can he regain the form that had him tossing 34 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards just two years ago, or is the 38-year-old closing in on retirement? JuJu Smith-Shuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington and Eric Ebron (along with rookie Chase Claypool) should give Roethlisberger enough options to push for fantasy QB1 status and a potential Comeback Player of the Year award.
Matt Waldman: As long as Roethlisberger can stay on the field, which hasn't been a given for him for five of the past six seasons (he has missed 21 games during this span), he should deliver near-elite yardage production behind a good offensive line. If his young receiving corps can generate an additional red-zone threat beyond JuJu Smith-Schuster--say, Eric Ebron--Roethlisberger remains skilled enough to deliver elite production for fantasy players. Considering how Diontae Johnson acclimated while playing with backup quarterbacks and the passing-game rapport Roethlisberger has with James Conner, there are enough weapons in the stable for the old man to earn top-five fantasy production.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee
Sigmund Bloom: Why is a quarterback who was only outscored by Lamar Jackson in the second half of the season going so late in fantasy drafts? Obviously the fantasy community just isn't buying Tannehill reproducing his 2019 output, but Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown's ADP doesn't seem to reflect similar skepticism? Tannehill is so cheap that he is basically a no-risk pick to see if the hive mind is far too pessimistic about his 2020.
Jeff Tefertiller: It is interesting that most fantasy analysts expect A.J. Brown to continue where he left off last year and explode as a sophomore, but his quarterback - Ryan Tannehill - is being forgotten. Tannehill was a top-3 quarterback down the stretch and won many championships for his fantasy teams. Corey Davis is back. Jonnu Smith is the unquestioned starter at tight end. And, last but not least, Derrick Henry will be carrying the heavy load once again. Henry's presence allows Tannehill optimal situations to pass. For a late-round quarterback who can be an elite starter, it is difficult to pass on Tannehill.
Jason Wood: Ryan Tannehill serves as a reminder for why we all love this game. After washing out in Miami, he signed for a run-heavy Titans team as Marcus Mariota's backup. By the end of the season, Tannehill led the Titans to the AFC Championship Game and was rewarded with a long-term contract as the Titans' new starter. Last year, Tannehill was QB11 on a per-game basis in spite of attempting a meager 24 passes per game (44th among quarterbacks). A.J. Brown emerged as a difference-making WR1 by the end of the season and is poised for eye-gouging numbers in 2020. While the Titans will continue running the ball behind Derrick Henry, Tannehill is a perfect fit for Arthur Smith's system and is an enticing late-round choice for No. 2 fantasy duties.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
Andy Hicks: On the one hand Tom Brady is in line to have one of his best fantasy seasons. An average running game, receivers of the quality of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and O.J. Howard and a no-risk-it, no-biscuit approach from the head coach. On the other hand, you realize that no player of Tom Brady's vintage has ever been in this position and his age-defying career has to end sooner rather than later. This could end badly so have a good backup. That said drafting Brady could lead to spectacular results
Matt Waldman: Don't expect career-best production from Brady during the first year of his swan song with the Buccaneers, but he should get well north of 4,500 yards and add 30-34 scores thanks to a massive upgrade in receiving talent. They'll have a good rapport, but that extra level will need a year to develop for Brady to make optimal pre- and post-snap adjustments, which is a staple of his game. Tampa's offensive line is better than New England's, but not elite, so expect Brady to get forced off his spot more than he'd like. Still, even if Brady's accuracy percentage doesn't reach that optimal figure for career-bests, Tampa has the best overall collection of skill players he's ever had and that's enough for him to deliver as a top-five fantasy passer.
Daniel Jones, NY Giants
Ryan Hester: When drafting quarterbacks, upside is everything. The position is so deep in one-quarterback fantasy leagues that swinging for the fences and missing isn’t penal. Waiver wire selection can keep a fantasy team afloat for a whole fantasy season and even provide high-end production is any given week. Fantasy GMs should target quarterbacks with top-three upside at the position. And Jones has that. After being named New York’s starter in Week 3, only Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Jameis Winston had more top-five weekly finishes than the four that Jones had. That’s even more impressive considering Jones missed time near the end of the year.
Jeff Pasquino: It took all of 2019 for Daniel Jones to establish himself as the starting quarterback for the Giants, as veteran Eli Manning did not want to yield to the younger Jones easily. Jones stepped up in his rookie year, starting 12 games beginning in Week 3 (he missed two due to injury) and produced strong numbers as a rookie. By season's end, Jones was a Top 12 quarterback in fantasy points per game despite 12 interceptions. Jones will still rely on Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram as the wide receivers are still a bit below league average, but there is plenty to like for Jones in his second season. The young starter has more offensive line help (the Giants spent a first- and a third-rounder on lineman in April), offers additional running ability (279 yards, 2 TDs) and should be able to lower his interception numbers.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota
Andy Hicks: Kirk Cousins attempted 160 fewer passes from 2018 to 2019 and saw his lowest career passing yardage as a full-time starter. He also lost Stefon Diggs and it was the least productive year as a rusher for Cousins. Why then should there be optimism in 2020? For a start missing one game, the meaningless finale of the season had a devastating effect on his end of year numbers. An average game sees him finish as a borderline QB1 despite all the relatively low numbers. Minnesota was able to dictate the offense through the run game relentlessly last year and even a slight move towards the passing game boosts his numbers significantly. The addition of Justin Jefferson in the draft and further development of Olabisi Johnson and Irv Smith should all help make a more balanced offense and push Cousins back toward being a low-end QB1. He was a top 10 quarterback for four straight years and just re-signed with the team. I’d rather the odds that 2019 was the outlier and not the four years before.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco
James Brimacombe: The way Garoppolo is being drafted right now you would think that he was a bottom five quarterback last season. The fact is he played his first 16 game season of his career and lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl and finished as an unflashy QB14 on the season. The 49ers are viewed more as a run-first team and that alone pushes Garoppolo's value down some. He has a nice young group of wide receivers in Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Jalen Hurd, and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel broke out as a rookie and for Garoppolo to really push forward into QB10 territory he will likely need another young wide receiver to break out this year. Garoppolo also has a top-two tight end in the league in George Kittle so there is upside for him entering the year as the 49ers look to be one of the elite teams in the NFC once again.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta
Jeff Haseley: Matt Ryan has finished seventh and second in fantasy scoring over the last two years and he is expected to be a top-eight quarterback once again. The Falcons have an assortment of strong weapons for Ryan to utilize and the NFC South is expected to put up a ton of points. This all points in the direction of Ryan as a solid starter for your weekly lineup that you can draft after the top five quarterbacks are off the board.
