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The Top 10: Week 3

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 3
By Matt Waldman, September 16, 2019

The Top 10: Week 3
Photo: USA Today Sports

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.

Much of Week 3's Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 2 Cliff's Notes

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points:

  1. Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman are legitimate fantasy options until Tyreek Hill returns. Robinson has more NFL skill, but Hardman's athletic trump cards are compelling enough in this offense to make him an equal or greater difference-maker, any given week.
  2. The Lamar Jackson-Marquise Brown connection is strong and a huge moment on several levels for the advancement of Jackson's career.
  3. D.J. Chark is an emerging fantasy wide receiver because he has improved his technical prowess as a pass catcher and route runner.
  4. Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott's offensive scheme puts a lot of pressure on its offensive line, which will lead to boom-bust value for Buffalo's fantasy options—even with signs of growth from Josh Allen.
  5. Miles Sanders lacks refined vision as a ballcarrier and it's something you shouldn't write off as automatically getting better this year. Jordan Wilkins backs up Marlon Mack and has refined vision, which makes him worth monitoring in case of a Mack injury.
  6. Teddy Bridgewater should keep the Saints competitive. He will drop the fantasy value of his teammates across the board, but he'll be good enough to sustain fantasy value for Mike Thomas and Jared Cook. Mason Rudolph has the arm talent, pocket presence, and line play to become a garbage-time fantasy value.
  7. The Cardinals offense is productive between the 20s and on the verge of gassing its opponents with its play volume and hurry-up, but the lack of offensive line depth, the Air Raid offense, and Kyler Murray's inexperience is hurting Arizona inside the 20s.
  8. Lamar Jackson's work in the ground game is wise and if not for odd scenarios that lead to injury, health concerns aren't an elevated issue.
  9. Marcus Mariota and Carson Wentz are elevated health concerns at the position.
  10. Players and units who performed poorly in Week 1:
    1. Arizona's reserve right tackle.
    2. Adam Vinatieri
    3. Steelers' linebacker Devin Bush against tight ends.
    4. Chris Carson's ball security.
    5. Gardner Minshew's ball security.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Demarcus Robinson And Mecole Hardman Are Fantasy Oompa Loompas

The Kansas City offense is a fantasy chocolate factory run by the NFL's Willy Wonka (Patrick Mahomes II) and Mr. Wilkinson disguised as Slugworth (Andy Reid). After watching a display of vertical passing against the Raiders so unbelievable that it's a good thing that Al Davis wasn't alive to see it, we now know that the loss of Tyreek Hill is painful but not yet problematic.

Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Sammy Watkins are producing like Oompa Loompas that you can barely tell apart from one week to the next. Hardman is the least refined of the trio but he's by far, the fastest. Rarely do you see a player outrun bracket coverage and when he does, his quarterback lacks the arm for him to catch the ball in stride.

Welcome to Raresville, population 22:

Because of Hardman's speed, Reid's scheme, and Mahomes' arm, Hardman is a weekly boom-bust fantasy starter in any format.

The safer play is Robinson. Although he spent years as a seldom-used contributor, Robinson and Mahomes have demonstrated a rapport during training camp for the past three years. On Sunday, Robinson came to life and demonstrated skill with his releases, routes, and tight-coverage pass-catching.

These clips offer compelling evidence of Robinson's tools. He probably didn't earn playing time in the past because his best routes aren't rhythm routes like comebacks, deep outs, curls, digs, and shallow zone routes that Jeremy Maclin, Watkins, and Hill run well. Robinson's style of play as a rebounder along the perimeter also didn't fit Alex Smith's conservative decision-making down-field.

Mahomes' vertical passing is so accurate (and daring) that Reid can split the "Hill Role" between Robinson and Hardman according to their strengths. Robinson earns the vertical routes where he can rebound or beat a defender one-on-one whereas Hardman earns the field-stretching and yards-after-the-catch targets that make him a gadget-plus option in an offense that never loses the device in its couch cushions.

Start'em if you got'em.

2. Lamar Jackson's Hollywood Moment

Deny Emotion And You Only See A Fraction of the Game. I wrote this piece at my site several years ago and it's now part of the introductory curriculum at The Scouting Academy.

The premise of the piece: Football and the analysis of the sport have become an increasingly intellectual pursuit of a physical game. However, the impact of emotions on the performance of players, plays, and a team remains as important as ever despite the desire to hide its seat at the table.

While difficult to accurately attribute emotion to specific plays and players, it's sometimes worth the effort. This game-sealing throw to Marquise Brown from Lamar Jackson is one of them.

Jackson is a talented work in progress that analysts and fans find difficult to pin down because he defies quarterback stereotypes. He's an elite runner but unlike most top runners at the position, he's among the best at maneuvering tight pockets. He flicks the ball effortlessly with his release motion but some of his throws lack the RPMs many find desirable from a top quarterback. And because he didn't experience a quarterback camp development track in high school and college, people mistake Jackson's lack of familiarity with whiteboarding, offensive verbiage, and assembly line techniques of quarterback coach-for-hires for a lack of intelligence.

We don't allow quarterbacks like Jackson to be individuals. If he's speedy and can make defenders miss, he's a running back who can throw despite the fact that he might be the best pocket manager of all the quarterbacks I studied in the college game for the past five years. If can't throw the deep out or deep comeback with velocity, then forget about his accuracy with deep corner routes, deep over routes, or any pattern that is breaking into the middle of the field where he excels. If he doesn't present information like a Wharton grad in front of a whiteboard, he's ill-equipped to be the processing engine of an NFL offense.

And if he can't do these things, he won't ever improve upon his flaws. False.

Jackson's greatest two flaws as a passer are his inaccuracy up the sidelines on vertical routes and perimeter routes that require timing and velocity. Although Deshaun Watson has the same issues, we've ended the inquisition about his viability as a quarterback.

The Ravens have molded an offense to Jackson's talents while minimizing the need to use his most flawed tools. Still, there are moments where opposing defenses will send the following message to Jackson and the offense with its alignment: "We know where you're weakest. Prove to us that you're not."

The fact that the staff let Jackson prove it in the pivotal moment is a boost of confidence that will lessen the likelihood of Jackson overthinking this type of throw the next time while increasing the likelihood that the Ravens' staff will give Jackson' a "next time." The fact the target was a rookie helps this unit mature faster.

It doesn't mean this one play will turn Jackson's flaws into strengths. He's not going to become a 57-percent passer on deep routes and lead the NFL. However, his success opens the Ravens' playbook and increases the team's confidence in him to make big plays. Success comes with opportunity and Jackson and Brown are proving they deserve more opportunities—even in the most pressure-filled scenarios.

Football is a performance craft, not a science. The best performers are technically-sound, prepared, and confident. When confidence is high, timing and accuracy are crisp, as is the quality of response to unplanned situations. There will be ups and downs but Jackson's confidence is rising after this play and his game is trending in the right direction.

3. D.J. Chark Is An Emerging Fantasy Receiver

I did not like the D.J. Chark selection for Jacksonville in the 2018 NFL Draft. Chark was a speedster with an athletic frame suitable for the league but he was a raw route runner and despite making difficult catches, his technique as a pass-catcher was raw and problematic.

Last year, Chark looked more like a career special teams player according to my friend and occasional RSP contributor, Eric Stoner. This year, Chark looks like an emerging player.

Despite some technical deficiencies with accuracy and ball security, Minshew is a fearless and confident player, which will at least translate to more opportunities for Chark. The second-year receiver may not become a consistent fantasy starter this year, but he's improving in the right places and that usually bodes well for a player's short-term and long-term future.

4. Atlas Shrugged: Buffalo's Offensive Line

Matt Bitonti rated Buffalo's offensive line 28th in the league heading into Week 2. Regardless of rating, it's clear after watching the Bills' offense that—perhaps more so than many organizations—Buffalo leans hard on its line play.

This offense wants to run gap plays that focus all of its attention to opening one hole and then have its quarterback execute deep drops and fire the ball downfield. Philosophically, this team wants to throw haymakers and powerful body blows. When you're committing this much energy to these types of shots, you may destroy your opponent with one punch, but you also open yourself up to a lot of damage if and when you miss.

It means this offensive line is the star of the show and the bearer of burdens. It's Atlas carrying the Bills' world on its shoulders.

This weekend, Atlas towered over the Giants' defense for most of the game, giving time for big plays on the ground and through the air—even when backed up in the offense's own territory.

Allen is getting better but the Bills' line is vulnerable to blitzes that overload a side of the line as well as twists (also known as stunts or game). The better defenses in the league will continue to riddle Allen and the Bills into mistakes.

Allen will experience future moments of foolhardy, football-hero decision-making, but there are signs that he's getting wiser and smarter. Devin Singletary had a lot of room to roam during his first two weeks as a pro and hasn't had to show anything that counters my questions about his lack of great athletic ability.

Singletary could be good, I just haven't seen him as anything more than a beneficiary of big creases so I'm not recommending him highly until I do.

5. DON'T WRITE OFF REFINED VISION: MILES SANDERS' LACKS IT; JORDAN WILKINS HAS IT

I spent this summer harping on two issues with the talented Miles Sanders' game—an atrocious track record of ball security and an unhealthy desire to make decisions like former Penn State teammate Saquon Barkley despite lacking Barkley's athletic ability to have success even when he makes conceptual mistakes during run plays. So far, Sanders hasn't fumbled during games.

However, Sanders has made a lot more immature decisions as a runner than what the Eagles will be capable of tolerating long-term if it doesn't' improve.

This has been a weekly issue for Sanders. Here's Rookie Scouting Portfolio contributor J Moyer's (@JMoyerFB on Twitter) examination of Sanders.

Sanders' development in this area will be ongoing. For example. here's a wiser decision Sanders made later in the Falcons' game.

Still, it's going to take time. LeSean McCoy had this problem during his rookie year. He has developed into one of the most dynamic decision-makers at the position (see Moyer's video below), but it's rooted in football wisdom that Sanders currently lacks.

Vision requires an understanding of the blocking scheme, how defenders attack it, and projecting the outcome of these events based on visual evidence. Sanders either doesn't see or trust those projected outcomes as much as his athletic ability.

In contrast, Jordan Wilkins has been playing against athletes better than he is since his years at Ole Miss in the SEC. He's productive because he must trust those projected outcomes rooted in scheme and defender movements or he won't generate explosive plays.

Here's a 50-yard gain that Wilkins earned against the Titans on Sunday and it's clear he saw the opening before it happened.

If Marlon Mack gets hurt, Wilkins is a must-have option right now. He's big enough to earn a sizable workload, catches the ball well, and he has the best vision of the backs on this roster. His greatest flaw has been pass protection, but the issue at Ole Miss was effort more than skill. Keep an eye on Wilkins as a preemptive pickup in deeper leagues because we've seen Mack miss a game or two...or four...during his career.

Sanders is earning every opportunity to succeed right now but there will come a point where he'll see fewer snaps or the bench if gradual improvement doesn't occur. He's not worth starting right now, but he's worth holding onto if the light comes on with concerted effort to improve his processing of blocking schemes because he's the most athletic back on the depth chart and will become the most likely to author breakaway runs.

6. What to Expect from Teddy Bridgewater And Mason Rudolph?

The injuries that Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger suffered will have broad implications for their respective offenses. The Saints have the most experienced backup of the two teams, but it doesn't mean that Teddy Bridgewater will be the best fantasy option. In fact, I believe Mason Rudolph has a chance to deliver consistent production as a fantasy starter.

Bridgewater didn't go a great job of moving the Saints' offense when he entered the lineup against the Rams last week. We can explain away some of the problems due to dropped passes, a lack of reps with the first-team, and consistent pressure in the pocket. This lack of rapport and pressure combined with a scheme required Bridgewater to work under center and turn his back to the defense during play-action fakes creates an added difficulty with seeing the field accurately.

Even so, there are some positives with Bridgewater's game that will only improve as he continues playing.

These skills should underscore a productive relationship with Michael Thomas and Jared Cook, the two best route runners in the middle of the field for the Saints. However, the vertical game will likely suffer for a few reasons. The biggest is Bridgewater's historical inaccuracy as a vertical thrower.

Because Bridgewater has played with three teams during the past four years, he lost the developmental continuity that he was experiencing in Minnesota before suffering his career-threatening knee injury. It means that much of the "game within the game," that starters develop long-term will be missing from Bridgewater's play.

It's less likely we'll see the added flourishes of Brees' game that his teammates have probably leaned on as commonplace:

  • Quick and productive pre-snap adjustments.
  • Small, playground-like adjustments for individual players within an overall adjustment for the team that creates a huge mismatch and big play.
  • Red zone rapport.
  • Deep game rapport.
  • Enhanced feel for the space of the pocket based on experience working with the offensive line in game conditions for years.

Bridgewater has a chance to be good (a high-end fantasy QB2 with occasional QB1 games), but not Brees-good in this offense. Rudolph is the opposite of Bridgewater and an odd prospect.

When he entered the NFL, he was better with vertical throws than he was the short and intermediate game—an unusual quality among young quarterbacks. He has improved his work in the short and intermediate game and perhaps additional on-field work will help him grasp the smallest details that will help him process information at the speed of a high-end starter.

I thought that the Steelers did an excellent job of taking Rudolph in the draft because he's style holds some positive similarities to Roethlisberger. Rudolph's ascension should also help James Washington because the pair worked productively for years at Oklahoma State. Although Washington has to refine the reliability of his routes, their rapport with specific patterns should emerge immediately.

Rudolph has underrated mobility and also reminds me of a young Carson Palmer in terms of that movement and arm talent. Because the Steelers have a struggling defense and a good offensive line, I expect more game scripts where Rudolph earns garbage-time production commensurate with a fantasy starter.

7. Arizona's Jekyll And Hyde Offense And Fantasy value

Larry Fitzgerald told this weekend's broadcast crew that he could hear the fatigue of the Lions' secondary in Week 1 as it gasped for breath towards the end of the game. There were moments this weekend where the Cardinals had the Ravens defense reeling due to its tempo and play volume.

Spreading the field as often as it did, the Cardinals also found mismatches it could exploit repeatedly. Anthony Averett can attest:

As good as the Cardinals are getting at moving the ball up and down the field between the 20s, this offense struggles inside the 20s. Communication has been bad, precious time has been lost making decisions pre-snap, and decision-making overall has faltered.

This is a common problem for rookie quarterbacks. Also, the Air Raid loses some of its luster in the red zone because this area of the field naturally compresses the offense. It means that Murray's improvement is the greatest factor in driving the improvement of the offense in areas where the greatest number of points can be scored (or preventing points being scored against them when talking about working deep in the offense's own territory).

Without a healthy right tackle or top-notch offensive line play, this is going to be a problem.

Murray is an accurate deep passer, which should lead to big plays and some touchdowns. He'll have steady yardage weeks but his touchdown and turnover potential will have much greater variability against tougher defensive units.

He's best considered a matchup play for most fantasy formats and David Johnson's upside is looking increasingly remote because it's clear that Murray isn't much of a runner. He's fast enough for big plays, but he's small, takes a beating, and knows this about his game.

We've seen enough linemen catch up to Murray already that I don't think opponents will respect his option game as much as other mobile quarterbacks. This may change as Murray becomes more strategic and experienced but so far, the burden of proof is on Murray the pro rather than his past collegiate play.

8. How to Run Wisely By Lamar Jackson

I've been saying this for years: Lamar Jackson does not take a lot of punishment. Sure, there are plays you can pull up where he has or the risk has been heavier. However, most of his runs are wise plays where he avoids big hits. Many of his runs on Sunday were great examples:

Jackson and his receivers still a work in progress when it comes to communication and adjustment of routes, which better defenses will surely challenge as the season unfolds. However, Jackson's maturity with running the football is something Michael Vick rarely had despite the two possessing similar dynamic speed and agility.

As Vick said during Jackson's final year at Louisville, Jackson is a far better player than he was.

9. Slow And Painful Quarterback Suicide by Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, And Jacoby Brissett

In contrast to Jackson's running skill, there are veteran passers in this league who seem bent on killing their own careers and it's the underlying reason I haven't trusted some of these players when it comes to preseason fantasy rankings—or I touted the potential backup (Chad Kelly).

Brissett has the most benign issue of three passers in this segment's heading. His issue is spinning from pressure. He's just quick and strong enough to avoid getting sacked but he's just ungainly enough to take additional punishment and while in an awkward position of a spin.

Mariota's has told the media that he has trouble maintaining his desired weight and it is his goal to make it through an entire season healthy. Then, Mariota walks onto the field and becomes a bad stuntman.

We've known this has been an ongoing issue for years. The fact it's not getting better is scary.

However, Mariota is careful in comparison to Wentz. I've often been critical of Wentz for specific accuracy issues and decision-making but you have to admire his guts at the very same time you question his quarterbacking wisdom.

I love Wentz's toughness and gameness, but there's a line where it prevents him from helping his team long-term. Until these three show a little more self-care, I'm not coming near them as fantasy options.

10. FRESH FISH: Week 2

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Adam Vinatieri

Vinatieri missed two point-after attempts this weekend and one the week prior. He also missed two field goals last week. The slump is in the veteran's head.

Let's move onto additional specimens from the fish market:

  • Chris Carson: A pair of fumbles despite an otherwise productive outing that might open the door to more playing time for Rashaad Penny, if Penny continues maturing between the tackles..
  • Arizona's Offense Inside the 20s: False starts, time outs called, and lengthy moments of confusion in the areas of the field where precision is essential.
  • Devin Bush: Russell Wilson welcomed the Steelers rookie linebacker to the NFL with a pair of touchdowns to Will Dissily in yesterday's defeat at Bush's expense.
  • Gardner Minshew: His scouting report is that of a fumbler and he had trouble with ball security this weekend.

Good luck next week!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Analysis Josh Allen Anthony Averett Saquon Barkley Teddy Bridgewater Jacoby Brissett John Brown Marquise Brown Devin Bush Chris Carson D.J. Chark Jr Jared Cook Mecole Hardman Jr. Tyreek Hill Lamar Jackson David Johnson Christian Kirk Dawson Knox Marlon Mack Patrick Mahomes II Marcus Mariota Gardner Minshew Kyler Murray Rashaad Penny Demarcus Robinson Ben Roethlisberger Mason Rudolph Miles Sanders Devin Singletary Michael Thomas James Washington Sammy Watkins Deshaun Watson Carson Wentz Jordan Wilkins Russell Wilson

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