The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
THIS WEEK'S CASH LINE: 136.48
TEAM #1:
Score: 125.98 (did not cash)
37th/50
TEAM #2:
Score: 145.58 (did cash)
Finished 13th/50
The Overlap
Even as the slate's highest priced quarterback, Lamar Jackson was the most-rostered quarterback in DraftKings' Week 12 GIANT $1,060 50-50. As the league's number-one fantasy producer on the year leading up to this point, Jackson is always a reliable option to build a cash lineup around. However, a Week 11 matchup with the Houston Texans helped Lamar Jackson make his way into 58-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50, even though he cost $7,700.
Once again, the number-one quarterback in David Dodds' h-value rankings topped the ownership charts in the highest-stakes cash games that are consistently filled with the sharpest NFL DFS players. Lamar Jackson blew the competition out of the water in Week 11 with an h-value score more than seven points higher than any other quarterback. Starting under-center as a 4-point favorite at home in a game projected to total 51 points, the highest total on the slate, Jackson was primed for a strong day from a fantasy-production perspective. A matchup against a Houston Texans team that allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks entering Week 11 only bolstered Jackson's projections, which helped players stomach his sky-high price tag at the quarterback position. Lastly, Lamar Jackson has added an averaged of 18.85 DraftKings points via his rushing totals along over his last 4 games, and at least 12.5 DraftKings points in all 4 of them, which represents the consistency of his rushing production. Lamar Jackson is not only the MVP frontrunner through 11 weeks this season, but also the number-one fantasy producer, regardless of position, right now as well. At $7,700, Lamar Jackson's combination of upside and consistency as one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen made him the top quarterback option last week.
Why Lamar Jackson?
- Highest h-value of any quarterback on the slate, according to David Dodds' projections
- Quarterback for strong favorites in the projected highest-scoring game on the slate
- Incredible rushing production to bolster fantasy production
- At least 12.5 DraftKings points per game from rushing production along in each of his last 4 games.
(Last week's analysis used to project Brian Hill as the Sharp Play of the Week)
This week, Brian Hill is the most likely candidate to start in the Atlanta Falcons' backfield, as the team's starter, Devonta Freeman, is reportedly a long-shot to play against the Carolina Panthers. At just $4,800, Hill is priced as the Falcons' number-two option on the ground, and his projected volume far exceeds expectations at this price-point. Hill also has the benefit of starting against the league's last-ranked run defense in both yards per carry allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed this season. Although the Falcons have struggled to move the ball on the ground this season, Brian Hill is simply too cheap for his expected volume and efficiency in a juicy matchup between NFC South rivals. Hill is also a capable pass-catcher, as he proved last week when he hauled in a 10-yard touchdown in the Falcons' upset victory over the New Orleans Saints.
Why Brian Hill?
- $4,800 price tag is far too low for Hill's expected volume in Atlanta's offense, both on the ground and through the air.
- In a strong matchup against the league's bottom-ranked Panthers' run defense, his efficiency should also rise above Atlanta's disappointing season-long rushing numbers.
- Provides much-needed value on a slate that is lacking in bargain-bin options elsewhere.
The Oakland Raiders made the somewhat-controversial decision to select running back Josh Jacobs in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Jon Gruden and the Raiders' coaching staff has ensured they extract every last ounce of value they can get out of Jacobs this season, as his volume is consistently one of the highest in the NFL. A Week 11 clash with the Cincinnati Bengals, who field one of the league's worst run defenses, helped lead 82-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings to roster Josh Jacobs for $6,900.
In Week 11, Josh Jacobs was the beneficiary of an elite matchup against the horrific Cincinnati Bengals' run defense. Throughout the season, the Bengals have defended an exceptionally-high number of rushing totals to go alongside dreadful efficiency numbers. The Bengals have played from behind more than any team besides the New York Giants this season, which breeds high-volume rushing attacks for their opponents. Allowing 5.0 yards per carry, the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL, opposing rushing attacks have shredded the Bengals week-in and week-out this year. Josh Jacobs has tallied at least 15 carries in 6 consecutive games entering last week, and as 13-point favorites, the odds were heavily in favor of him posting a 7th straight high-volume game. On the year, Jacobs averages approximately 4.8 yards per carry, making him one of the league's most-efficient starting running backs. At just under $7,000 on DraftKings, Josh Jacobs projected to be one of the slate's highest-volume running backs, as the bell-cow for the heaviest favorite on the slate. This sky-high volume, along with elite projected efficiency, caught the eye of sharps, as 82-percent of them locked him into their cash lineups in Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Why Josh Jacobs?
- As heavy favorites, the Oakland Raiders' rushing volume was projected to increase dramatically, and Jacobs was the prime beneficiary
- In an elite matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL
- The Bengals rank dead-last in rushing yards allowed, second-to-last in rushing touchdowns allowed, and third-to-last in yards per carry allowed this season
D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore has been one of the most consistently underpriced players on DraftKings slates for nearly a full month. As Carolina's number-one receiving target, Moore has a consistent role in the team's passing game, and although they have struggled lately as a whole, Moore has not. Coming in off of back-to-back 100-yard games, 72-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 plugged D.J. Moore into their lineups at only $5,900.
In Week 11, D.J. Moore and the Carolina Panthers played host to the Atlanta Falcons, a team whose defense ranked amongst the league's worst before their bye week in Week 9. Over Carolina's last four games, D.J. Moore led the team in targets, with over 11 per game, receptions, and yards, but had not found the end zone at all. Commanding approximately 28-percent of the team's total targets and 36-percent of the team's total air yards, Moore is due for some positive regression in terms of touchdown receptions in the very near future. D.J. Moore's role in the offense is as consistent as any receiver's has been in recent weeks, as he has tallied at least nine receptions in each of his last five games, including back-to-back 100-yard receiving days. Moore's price has not adjusted properly on DraftKings for his large and consistent role in the Carolina passing game, and at less-than-$6,000, he stuck out like a sore thumb at wide receiver. Going forward, sharps may scale back how frequently they target pieces of teams' passing attacks against the Atlanta Falcons, as they have made some fundamental changes to their defense. Most notably, head coach and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has relinquished play-calling duties for the team's defense. Since giving up that role, the Falcons have pulled off road wins against both the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers thanks to two impressive defensive performances.
Why D.J. Moore?
- Facing an Atlanta secondary that ranked amongst the league's worst early in the season
- Adjusting for recent weeks' performances, they may no longer grade as a defense to target through the air
- Unadjusted price following back-to-back 10-target and 100-yard games through the air with strong potential for positive touchdown regression
- Number-one receiver in Carolina's passing attack with at least 9 targets in 5 straight and an average of over 11 targets per game over the last month
Next Week's Sharp Play
Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints enter this week's matchup with the Carolina Panthers as the heaviest favorites of Week 12. As 10-point favorites, the team's rushing volume should increase dramatically, which will almost certainly lead to increased rushing production from the team's number-one running back. The Carolina Panthers' defense grades similarly to the Cincinnati Bengals, who were analyzed above in Josh Jacobs' section of the article. While the Panthers have only defended the 17th-most rushing attempts in the NFL, they've allowed the 6th-most rushing yards, most rushing touchdowns, and 4th-most yards per carry on the season. Alvin Kamara's role in New Orleans' passing game is larger than any other running back in the NFL right now, as he has tallied 10 targets in each of his last two games since returning from injury. One of the games came in a shocking 17-point loss to the Atlanta Falcons, while the other came in a 17-point victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The consistent receiving work in spite of two dramatically different game scripts bodes extremely well for Kamara's projected consistency moving forward. Although he is pricey this weekend at $8,200, the sharpest NFL DFS players will likely build lineups around Alvin Kamara in this elite matchup.
Previously Projected Sharp Plays
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)
- 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 9: Nick Chubb- 11.1 FanDuel points (1.4x value)/13.1 DraftKings points (1.8x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 10: Michael Thomas- 21.7 FanDuel points (2.5x value)/31.2 DraftKings points (3.8x value)
- 88 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 11: Brian Hill- 4.3 FanDuel points (0.7x value)/4.8 DraftKings points (1.0x value)
- 74 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50