The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
TEAM #1:
TEAM #2:
The Overlap
Jaylen Samuels
With James Conner sidelined due to an AC joint injury, Jaylen Samuels stepped into Pittsburgh's starting lineup in week 9 against the Indianapolis Colts. As the news became official that Conner would not play, Samuels' price of just $4,000 was unable to be adjusted for his new role in the team's offense. Jaylen Samuels subsequently became the first player in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 this season to make his way into every single lineup entered.
Jaylen Samuels rocketed up the Pittsburgh Steelers' depth chart in week 9 thanks to an injury to James Conner, the team's starter, that kept him sidelined. Additionally, Benny Snell, Jr., the team's third option in the backfield, also made his way to the inactive list for the game, leaving Jaylen Samuels as the lone running back in the Steelers' backfield with an NFL carry since the start of the 2018 season. Last season, Samuels was called upon in similar situations, and he consistently posted respectable rushing totals while proving to be a capable bell-cow running back when needed. Samuels' $4,000 price tag was set by the DraftKings pricing algorithm under the assumption that he would be the team's backup running back once again, which changed in the blink of an eye thanks to mid-week confirmation that Conner would not play. In a tougher matchup, perhaps Jaylen Samuels would not have reached triple-digit ownership in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. However, against a mediocre Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks 21st in the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed this season, there was no justification for avoiding Samuels in cash lineups. One of the biggest drivers in sharp lineup construction this season has been mid-week injury information that results in the shuffling of offensive depth charts. Continue to keep a watchful eye out for essential injury updates for starters across the league, as active and inactive news lead players directly to the sharpest cash-game options on a weekly basis.
Why Jaylen Samuels?
- Bell-cow running back priced as a backup
- Has proven capable of handling a significant workload in the past
- Other viable running back options aside from the team's previous starter were also unavailable
(Last week's analysis used to project Nick Chubb as a sharp play for week 9)
In week 9, the Cleveland Browns head to Denver to take on the floundering 2-6 Broncos. The Broncos will be led by Brandon Allen, the team's backup quarterback, after the original starter, Joe Flacco, went down with a back injury. Thanks to the change under center, the Browns enter this game as over three-point favorites in the game, which typically leads to a run-heavy offensive attack. Chubb is one of the most talented and most used running backs in the NFL, with at least 20 touches in 6 out of 7 games this season. So far this season, Chubb averages an impressive 5.5 yards-per-carry on the season, and a matchup against Denver's middling run defense is unlikely to provide much resistance next weekend. DraftKings finally made significant adjustments to player prices at the running back position this week, with Christian McCaffrey reaching the $10,000-mark and Dalvin Cook close behind at $9,500. Both of those top-end running backs are true bell-cow running backs for their respective teams, and in close games, like this game is projected to be for the Cleveland Browns, Nick Chubb joins that list of heavily-utilized running backs. At just $7,300, Chubb offer significant savings relative to the other top-priced running backs, and he has proven capable of producing impressive rushing numbers against almost any defense in the NFL. Last weekend, Chubb ran for over 130 yards on the New England Patriots' top-ranked run defense, and aside from his two uncharacteristic fumbles, he posted one of the most impressive rushing days of his young career. Expect the Browns to turn to Chubb early and often as they look to go on the road and secure a much-needed victory against a struggling Denver Broncos team hampered by injuries all over the field on both sides of the ball.
Why Nick Chubb?
- Matchup against a poor run defense
- Team entered the game as four-point favorites, which typically leads to a run-heavy offensive attack
- One of the league's true bell-cow running backs on a weekly basis with exceptional talent to go along with his workload
Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin's emergence as one of the NFL's premier fantasy producers at the wide receiver position is one of the biggest storylines through the first nine games of the 2019 season. Godwin's talent and abilities have been evident at all stages of his career, but his usage and playing time totals have limited his production up until now. This year, in Bruce Arians' newly implemented offense for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chris Godwin is making a name for himself in perhaps the best one-two punch of pass-catchers in the entire NFL. In week 9, half of the sharpest NFL DFS players rostered Chris Godwin in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 in a soft matchup against the Seattle Seahawks' struggling secondary.
Chris Godwin entered week 9 with the third-most fantasy points (using PPR scoring) of any wide receiver in the NFL. Godwin's role in Tampa Bay's passing attack is as secure as any player in the NFL, as he ranks top-10 in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns amongst wide receivers. His volume and production already jump off of the page in any neutral context, but in week 9 he and the Buccaneers' offense traveled to Seattle as 4-point underdogs in the game with the highest projected total on the slate. As underdogs, the Buccaneers' passing volume was expected to spike from its normal levels, increasing Godwin's expected target totals. Additionally, the Seattle Seahawks' defense has struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, leaving their sub-par pass-defense exposed against top-tier passing attacks. Against a relatively easy schedule this season, the Seahawks rank 24th in the NFL in adjusted-yards-per-pass-attempt allowed. Deciding between Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in week 9 was a difficult decision, but ultimately the consistency of Godwin tipped the scales in his favor for sharps. Even though Godwin was priced $100 higher than Evans, his target numbers are more consistent, and he has just one game under 10 DraftKings points this year while Evans has two, including a 0-point performance in week 5 against the New Orleans Saints. As a top-flight fantasy producer in a high-volume situation against a porous pass defense, Chris Godwin checked virtually every box in week 9 against the Seattle Seahawks. When all was said and done, 50-percent of sharps rostered Chris Godwin in the $1,060 GIANT 50-50 on DraftKings in week 9.
Why Chris Godwin?
- Emerging as one of the league's best fantasy producers at the wide receiver position
- As four-point underdogs, the Buccaneers were likely to turn to a pass-heavy offensive approach, increasing Godwin's already-high expected target total
- Matchup against the Seattle Seahawks' weak pass defense was likely to bolster the efficiency of Tampa Bay's passing attack
- More consistent producer than his similarly-priced teammate, Mike Evans
Curtis Samuel
While Curtis Samuel's 2019 campaign has been a roller coaster ride, as his on-field performance and underlying statistics have rarely translated into fantasy production. In week 9, however, 36-percent of sharp NFL DFS players rostered Samuel in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. Thankfully for them, Curtis Samuel bounced back from a high-volume, low-production week 8 performance by finding the end zone against the Tennessee Titans in week 9, posting 16.4 DraftKings points at a suppressed $4,300 price tag.
Curtis Samuel entered the 2019 season as one of the most-hyped breakout candidates, according to analysts throughout the fantasy football industry. Samuel sputtered out of the gates early this season with Cam Newton under center. Then, when backup Kyle Allen took over, he predominantly relied upon running back Christian McCaffrey through the air. However, in recent weeks, McCaffrey's role in the passing game has steadily declined, and Samuel's role in the offense has increased. His target numbers have stayed relatively consistent, with either 6 or 7 targets in 5 out of his last 6 outings, but the value of his targets has increased dramatically. Over the last month, Samuel's average target has come over 14-yards down the field, and he accounts for approximately 40-percent of the Panthers' total air yards over that span. His price tag remained nearly as consistent as his target volume, remaining between $4,600 and $4,800 for about 2 months. However, following an 11-target game against the San Francisco 49ers in week 8, Samuel's price oddly dropped to $4,300 on DraftKings' week 9 main slate of games. The price-drop, coupled with the high-value targets that Samuels commands in the context of the Carolina Panthers' aerial attack, were the driving forces behind his 36-percent ownership in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Why Curtis Samuel?
- Unwarranted price-drop this week following his second-highest target total of the season last week
- Commanding valuable downfield targets in Carolina's offense
- As one of the team's top receiving options, Christian McCaffrey, sees his receiving volume decrease, Samuel is primed to capitalize on the increased opportunity
Next Week's Sharp Play
Michael Thomas
In week 10, focus attention atop the player pool at the wide receiver position when starting to build cash lineups. Michael Thomas and the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons' horrific pass defense this weekend in the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and with Drew Brees back under center, Thomas is primed for another eruption. Thomas is always one of the top options at the wide receiver position, as he is as matchup-proof as they come at the position. However, an exceptional matchup against a formidable run defense and porous pass highlight him as an especially strong option for cash lineups in week 10. The Atlanta Falcons' secondary is one of the weakest in the NFL defending against the pass, and the lone player on their defense to record an interception, Desmond Trufant, is questionable for the game. So far, in 2019, Michael Thomas' impressive receiving totals have come mostly with Teddy Bridgewater under center for the New Orleans Saints while Drew Brees recovered from a thumb injury he sustained in week 2. In the two full-games Brees played this season, Michael Thomas averages 12 targets, over 10 receptions, and 117 receiving yards per game. Now, in week 10, when the Saints are projected to post the highest-scoring day of any offense on the DraftKings main slate of games, Thomas' likelihood of adding a touchdown to those impressive totals is as high as ever. Hia $8,300 price tag will not be easy to fit into lineups, but he is worth prioritizing in what may be the best matchup of the season for Michael Thomas and the New Orleans Saints' passing attack. He makes for an elite building-block in cash-games this weekend, and the sharpest NFL DFS players will likely prioritize him in their lineups as well.
Why Michael Thomas?
- Elite wide receiver that is viable every week, but now with his starting quarterback back in the fold, his production should increase
- Matchup against the Atlanta Falcons who field one of the NFL's worst pass defenses
- New Orleans Saints have the highest projected team total on the slate, making Thomas one of the most-likely touchdown-scorers on the slate
- Playing at home, in a dome, in November to protect the offense from any adverse weather conditions
Previously Projected Sharp Plays
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)
- 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 9: Nick Chubb- 11.1 FanDuel points (1.4x value)/13.1 DraftKings points (1.8x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50