The Case for Kyler Murray

There are three great reasons to draft Kyler Murray this season.

1. Within the context of the fantasy quarterback landscape, the risk of drafting Murray is minimal.
2. Murray should put up solid passing numbers in Arizona’s Air Raid offense.
3. Combined with his above-average ability as a passer, Murray’s elite athleticism and rushing ability gives him immense fantasy upside.

It’s All upside

In typical fantasy leagues that start just one quarterback (non-Superflex), there is almost no downside risk whatsoever to swinging for the fences on a high-upside quarterback like Kyler Murray at the bottom of the QB1 tier (Murray has an ADP of QB12) if you understand the overall fantasy landscape at the quarterback position heading into 2019.

Let’s take a look at the quarterback landscape before also looking at why some of the risk factors surrounding Murray may be overblown.

The Bigger Picture

Even if you believe Murray is a risky bet for rookie production, that risk matters little in the big picture. The investment in terms of draft capital to select Murray is relatively minimal. Given his mid-round ADP, the opportunity cost is relatively low, especially since waiting to draft Murray as your No. 1 quarterback means you have been able to load up on other positions in the early rounds.

Most importantly, there is no real penalty if you swing and miss because of the extreme depth at the quarterback position. It has never been easier to get solid fantasy production at the quarterback position. Last season, the following 20 quarterbacks posted at least 18 fantasy points per game:

Some will focus on QB1 numbers, defined as top-12 production at the position. However, that narrow mindset misses the forest for the trees. Does the 0.9 PPG gap in production between the QB12 and QB 20 really matter?

Realistically, scoring 1.0 PPG less is all we are talking about if you select Murray as the QB12 and he busts because the backup options are so strong. Whether you plan on taking a top QB2 like Philip Rivers in the mid-rounds, waiting until the final round to take somebody like Andy Dalton, or working the waiver wire early in the season, the risk of failing to find a solid fantasy producer at quarterback in 2019 is extremely low. Strategically, the focus should be almost entirely on upside.

In short, building a floor at quarterback is easy. Finding legitimate upside is much harder. Very few quarterbacks have the realistic upside to separate from the pack of passers in the 18-20 PPG range. As we’ll detail below, Murray is one of the few passers with real difference-making upside.

The Risk Factors

We have to acknowledge the obvious risk factors regarding Murray’s 2019 projection:

1. He is taking over an Arizona offense that was awful last season. The Cardinals ranked dead last with 14.1 points per game.
2. He is playing for a rookie coach with no previous coaching experience at the NFL level.
3. Aside from Larry Fitzgerald, his wide receiver corps will be one of the least experienced in the NFL.
4. The Cardinals offensive line has real question marks.
5. Murray is a rookie, which always makes it tough to know what you will be getting.

We can also push back against those narratives:

1. Cleveland was dead last in offense in 2017, but that didn’t stop Baker Mayfield from setting the rookie passing touchdown record in 2018.
2. The last college-to-pro coaching experiment on this level was Chip Kelly, whose first Eagles team finished 2nd in the NFL in yards, 5th in passing touchdowns, and 2nd in rushing touchdowns.
3. The young Cardinals receivers lack experience but possess speed and athleticism in abundance.
4. The Cardinals offensive line struggles in 2018 were primarily attributable to a slew of injuries.
5. We’ve seen plenty of dual-threat rookie quarterbacks make an immediate impact in recent years (Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III III, Josh Allen, etc.).

Passing Upside and the Air Raid offense

Murray doesn’t need to put up huge passing numbers to be a fantasy star. If he can manage 230-250 passing yards and 1.5 touchdown passes per game, he would be well-positioned to finish as a top-5 fantasy quarterback due to his rushing ability. Murray is capable

Given his ability as a passer and the pass-heavy, fast-paced Air Raid offense, he has a good chance to produce solid passing numbers.

Murray’s passing Skills

In Murray’s two seasons at Oklahoma, his passing numbers were incredible. In limited snaps playing in relief of Baker Mayfield in 2017, Murray completed 86% of his passes and posted an adjusted yards-per-attempt of 20.0. As a full-time starter in 2018, he posted a historically great 13.0 adjusted yards per attempt. Murray threw for 4,361 yards and 42 touchdowns in 15 games on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy.

Murray has a huge arm, quick release, above-average accuracy, and an incredible ability to adjust his arm angle to make throws on the move and thread the ball through small passing windows. The arm strength and accuracy he shows on deep throws should lead to big plays to Arizona's speedy receivers. His ability to sling it on plays like this one below is special:

The Air Raid

The notion that Kilff Kingsbury losing college record and awful defenses will doom the Arizona Cardinals is illogical. Kingsbury recently admitted he didn’t like recruiting and didn’t put a big enough priority on it. He said recruiting wasn’t his “focus at times as much as it should’ve been” because he “wanted to coach the quarterbacks and be in the X’s and O’s and study other offenses.” His new NFL job will allow Kingsbury to focus on his strengths as a play-caller and he won’t have to worry about convincing 17-year olds to move to Lubbock, TX. The more important question regarding Kingsbury is whether his reputation as one of the top young offensive minds and quarterback gurus in all of football is justified.

The offensive numbers show why Kingsbury was such a hot coaching commodity last spring. His offenses at Houston, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech finished in the top-10 overall every single season. On a per-game basis, here are the passing stats for each of Kingsbury’s offenses:

Kingsbury was able to put up the crazy numbers above without star recruits— just one of his recruiting classes ranked higher than 40th nationally. His ability to develop lower-rated offensive recruits (especially at quarterback and receiver) and teach those players to execute his version of the Air Raid offense was impressive.

Some have pointed to Kingsbury’s failure to win big with Patrick Mahomes II as his quarterback as evidence Kingsbury and Murray will not succeed in the NFL. However, the 2015 and 2016 Texas Tech seasons with Mahomes are actually a perfect example of why fantasy players should be enamored with the Kingsbury and Murray pairing. In 2015, the Red Raiders finished No. 2 in the nation in total offense (579.5 ypg), No. 2 in scoring offense (45.1 ppg) and had the nation’s second-ranked passing offense (388.2 ypg). In 2016, Texas Tech led the nation in total offense (566.6 ypg) and passing offense (463.0 ypg) while finishing fifth in scoring (43.7 ppg).

In short, the offensive numbers Kingsbury’s offenses produced at the college level were fantastic. Kingsbury’s inability as a college coach to recruit top defensive talent matters little to Murray’s NFL projection.

Rushing Upside

If Murray can simply put up respectable numbers as a passer (think Andy Dalton or Derek Carr numbers), his ability as a runner could easily vault him into the elite fantasy tier. He has the talent and dynamic athletic ability to be one of the league’s most productive rushing quarterbacks.

"[Murray is] one of the better dual-threat players to ever play. He was born and bred to do this," Kingsbury said.

Speed to burn

Michael Vick 4.33-second forty-yard dash is the record for a quarterback. While Murray didn’t run at the combine, he reportedly ran similar times to Vick’s while at Oklahoma. Vick averaged 7.0 yards per carry in his NFL career, running for over 6,000 career yards and Murray’s speed and big-play ability should lead to a similarly gaudy YPC number. Like Vick, Murray is not going to need a ton of carries to put up big rushing numbers. He can easily average 40+ rushing yards per game carrying the ball 6-8 times per game.

Murray is a legitimate sub-4.4 speedster. He recently matched Andy Isabella (4.31 at the combine) stride for stride in a race at a Cardinals practice.

His ability to obliterate pursuit angles, make guys miss, and pull away from defenders in the open field as a college player was jaw-dropping, as you see on plays like this:

Running Quarterbacks under Kingsbury

The Air Raid system does not require a dual-threat quarterback but has proven to be absolutely deadly when helmed by a strong passer who can also run. In Kingsbury’s eight seasons as a college player, he had two regular starters who would qualify as above-average athletes, Johnny Manziel and Patrick Mahomes II. Here are the quarterback rushing numbers in Kingsbury’s three seasons with those two:

Kingsbury’s lone season calling plays with Manziel led to monster offensive numbers. In addition to the top passing numbers, the Aggies quarterbacks rushed for 1,410 yards and 21 touchdowns against SEC competition. Manziel walked away with the Heisman.

Mahomes barely qualifies as a dual-threat — he ran a 4.80 40-yard dash at the combine — which makes his 22 rushing touchdowns over two seasons all the more eye-opening.

The Air Raid spreads the field, utilizing four-receiver sets a majority of the time and opens up big running lanes for the quarterback. The quarterback run game is especially potent in the red zone, as evidenced by 43 rushing touchdowns in 38 games in the three seasons above. The pickings won’t be as easy in the NFL but Murray is also on a whole different level as a runner than any quarterback Kingsbury has worked with. Expect for Murray’s legs to be a big part of the red zone game plan for the Cardinals.

Injury Concerns

Some will point to Murray’s small stature as a reason why he won’t be able to put up big rushing numbers in the NFL. Heightened injury risk is an understandable concern for any running quarterback. However, it is worth noting Murray has yet to suffer any significant injury. He’s learned how to avoid big hits by using his elusiveness, speed and smarts to avoid big hits.

As Cardinals GM Steve Keim recently pointed out, "You say, 'OK, well maybe he’s a smaller quarterback. Is he going to get hurt? Is he fragile?’ He’s never hurt. He’s never in the training room. He’s thickly put together. Again, aside form the fact that’s not 6-foot-4, 6-foot-5, I think the guy is extremely unique."

Stats and Projections

Other Viewpoints

Matt Bowen (ESPN) on Murray and his expectation that Arizona will play fast:

"I can't wait to watch the rookie in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. Sure, Murray will go through some growing pains in his first pro season. Kingsbury, too. But the upside here? It's Murray's electric dual-threat ability in an up-tempo offense. The Cards are going to play fast, and I anticipate Murray posting some impressive numbers as a rook."

Mike Clay of ESPN:

"It's hard to imagine Murray failing. On one hand, he was an elite passer at Oklahoma, as indicated by his FBS-record 11.6 yards per attempt in 2018. On the other hand, he's an elite rusher, running for a ridiculous 1,001 yards while averaging 7.2 yards per carry last season. Yes, Murray is undersized, but his absurd combination of efficiency and production as both a passer and rusher makes him a perfect fit for the modern NFL."

Larry Fitzgerald is a believer:

“There’s no reason why anyone should have any doubt he can do it on this stage.”

Mike Leach on the transition from college football to the NFL:

"OK, first off of all, I think there's a couple of things: All this adapting, adapting, adapting, like the NFL is somehow some very special experience and you somehow need extremely special plays to play and all this other stuff. Well, that's a bunch of baloney and always has been. And that's just a bunch of NFL guys patting their own self on the back, pretending something's true when it's not, because I've seen some very mediocre coaches from college go and have quite a lot of success in the NFL, but I think that all this, 'Well it needs to be this type of play or otherwise it doesn't work it in the NFL.' Well, think about how ridiculous that is."