What We're Watching: AFC EAST
The NFL season is underway as all 32 teams will be opening training camp this week. The brief lull of the early summer is over, and it's time now to put the fantasy preparation into overdrive. As always, Footballguys is here to be your guide to another great season. Here's what we're watching for in the AFC East:
BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills make their annual pilgrimage to St. John Fisher College with questions up and down the roster. Third-year head coach Sean McDermott followed up a promising debut season in 2017 (9-7 and a playoff berth) with a deflating second effort in 2018 (6-10), thanks mainly to the offense going from bad (22nd in points in 2017) to worse (30th in points in 2018). The front office was busy, bringing in a litany of new players – young and old – to bolster the unit and give Josh Allen every chance at success. On defense, the team jumped from 26th in yards allowed in 2017 to 2nd last year but still allowed the 18th-most points. The Bills haven’t won a division title since 1995, and the oddsmakers don’t give them much a shot to end that streak in 2019.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/22 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: St. John Fisher College (Rochester, NY)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- Indianapolis 7:00pm EDT
- Aug 16 -- @Carolina 7:00pm
- Aug 23 -- @Detroit 8:00pm
- Aug 29 -- Minnesota 7:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Can Josh Allen become a capable passer? – Allen was a surprising fantasy asset last year thanks to explosive running stats, but his college pedigree didn’t point to that as sustainable. Meanwhile, his passing numbers were very close to abysmal. Can the Bills coaches build a system around Allen that affords him more success?
- If not LeSean McCoy, then who? – LeSean McCoy remains on the roster and, presumably, atop the depth chart. But Buffalo added veteran Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon in free agency and drafted Devin Singletary. Will Buffalo give McCoy another year as the bell cow, or do the signings portend a changing of the guard? More importantly, will any of them offer fantasy value?
- Deciphering the receiver depth chart – Zay Jones and Robert Foster return, but veterans John Brown and Cole Beasley weren’t signed to watch from the sidelines. None profile as true No. 1 receivers, so what’s the pecking order?
- Deciphering the tight end depth chart – The Bills have seven tight ends entering training camp, and none are proven commodities. Tyler Kroft flashed briefly in Cincinnati but has never been counted on as a starting playmaker. Lee Smith is an aging blocker. Jason Croom doesn’t inspire confidence. The most exciting of the bunch is rookie Dawson Knox; can he emerge from the scrum?
- Improving the offensive line – The Bills hired Bobby Johnson, who assisted Dave DeGuglielmo in Indianapolis last year, to improve an offensive line that neither protected Allen nor opened running lanes a year ago. More importantly, they drafted tackle Cody Ford and signed free agent center Mitch Morse. Are those moves enough to give the Bills line a fighting chance?
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Only the most ardent Dolphins fans expect the Dolphins to contend this season, and Vegas oddsmakers have given Miami the longest odds at a championship (500:1). The team’s 7-9 record belies how poorly constructed the roster was; the team finished 26th in points scored and 27th in points allowed. The rebuilding begins with wholesale changes including a new head coach – Brian Flores – who comes over from New England and will try to break the curse of former Patriots assistant coaches failing once they’ve left Bill Belichick’s nest. There are questions at nearly every position, including quarterback where veteran rifleman Ryan Fitzpatrick will compete against second-year Josh Rosen; who failed miserably as a rookie starter in Arizona.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/21 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: Baptist Health Training Facility (Davie, FL)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- Atlanta 7:30pm EDT
- Aug 16 -- @Tampa Bay 7:30pm
- Aug 22 -- Jacksonville 8:00pm
- Aug 29 -- @New Orleans 8:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Understanding Chad O’Shea’s system – Offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea spent the last ten seasons as the Patriots receiver coach and will get his first shot at calling plays. It’s a big step forward considering how heavy-handed Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels were in New England. O’Shea presumably will attempt to mirror the Patriots adaptable offense – which draws its roots from the Erhardt-Perkins system – but has integrated concepts from just about every other school of thought.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick versus Josh Rosen – Ryan Fitzpatrick has started games for seven teams and will notch his eighth pelt this year if he can outduel Rosen in the preseason. In Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins have an experienced gunslinger with a known ceiling. In Rosen, the team has a mercurial young passer who was the Cardinals chosen one a season ago but was traded for spare parts as Arizona opted to commit to Kyler Murray. Rosen’s rookie season couldn’t have gone worse, and if he can’t beat out Fitzpatrick, his future as an NFL franchise quarterback effectively evaporates.
- Will the new coaches commit to Kenyan Drake? – Adam Gase refused to commit to a workhorse running back, which left many wondering what Kenyan Drake could’ve accomplished under a different regime. We’re about to find out, but the coaches come from a Patriots team notorious for using a running back committee. Will Drake get the clear nod, or will he have to share touches with Kalen Ballage and Myles Gaskin?
- Are there receiving diamonds in the rough? – Miami ranked 30th in passing attempts and yards last year, yet returns the same receiving corps. Can veterans Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Albert Wilson reach new heights? Can uber-athletic tight end Mike Gesicki make the second-year leap? If not, where does the team turn for playmakers?
- Are the Dolphins trying to win? – The Dolphins had one of the worst offensive lines in football, yet did little to improve the unit, other than signing veteran guard Chris Reed and drafting development guard Michael Deiter. The team had a 10% sack rate last year, and two quarterbacks coming off seasons where they were beaten up.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots have redefined how we measure success in the NFL, and while the dynasty will end eventually, it’s a fool’s errand to predict when and how. Last season, New England won its tenth straight AFC East title, made its ninth Super Bowl appearance and won its sixth Super Bowl of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. With masterful coaching from offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, the Patriots fielded a top-5 offense for the ninth consecutive season, and the defense ranked in the Top 10 for the seventh straight year. With success comes change, and the Patriots will have to deal with Rob Gronkowski's retirement, and the departure of de facto defensive coordinator Brian Flores and long-time receivers coach Chad O’Shea. But it’s the Patriots, they don’t rebuild, they reload.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/21 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxboro, MA)
- Open to Public: Limited
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- @Detroit 7:30pm EDT
- Aug 17 -- @Tennessee 7:00pm
- Aug 22 -- Carolina 7:30pm
- Aug 29 -- New York Giants 7:30pm
What We're Watching:
- Figuring out the receiving corps beyond Julian Edelman – Edelman, fresh off a Super Bowl MVP, will miss the start of training camp with a hand injury. That will provide the Patriots with ample opportunity to figure out the rest of the receiving corps. Will rookie N’Keal Harry buck the trend and earn a big role in his first year? Is Josh Gordon in the mix? Can Demaryius Thomas earn a role in spite of mounting injury concerns? If none of these receivers have a strong preseason, will New England consider a trade?
- The post-Gronkowski era at tight end (or is it?) – Rob Gronkowski has ‘retired’ but hasn’t filed papers, leading many to speculate he’ll return at some point late in the season. Regardless of those rumors, the Patriots need to find a new go-to option for Week One. Veteran Ben Watson is intriguing but is suspended for the beginning of the season. The rest of the tight end corps leaves much to be desired.
- Minding Michel’s knee – Sony Michel will start training camp on the PUP list as he recovers from a knee scope earlier this year. Although he and the team are downplaying the significance, Michel’s history of knee problems raises alarm bells. If Michel struggles to get on the practice field, all eyes will be on rookie Damien Harris; who seems tailor-made to fill the same role.
- Are we overlooking James White? – James White has been a fantasy dynamo whenever Josh McDaniels has deemed it appropriate, but White often fades into obscurity when the game script calls for a more conventional ground-and-pound rushing attack. With the depth chart at tight end barren, and the receiving corps full of questions, might the answer be putting White – an excellent receiver – into the lineup more frequently?
- Is Isaiah Wynn the next plug-and-play offensive tackle? – Offensive linemen should not be expendable, particularly for championship-caliber teams. But New England breaks that mold, most recently moving on from Nate Solder in favor of Trent Brown. Brown was good, but not great, and was highly overpaid by the Raiders this offseason. Wynn, who missed his rookie year with an Achilles injury, avoided the PUP list and is being counted on as Tom Brady’s new protector. Don’t be surprised if New England considers the trade market – perhaps someone like Trent Williams – if Wynn isn’t lights out in training camp.
NEW YORK JETS
In the AFC East, finishing 2nd place is hardly a failure considering the Patriots win the division every year. Unfortunately, Todd Bowles followed up a 2nd-place finish (10-6) and top-10 offensive and defensive rankings in 2015 with three abysmal seasons. Bowles’ era ended with three straight last-place finishes, and with offensive and defensive units ranking in the bottom third of the league. Hope springs eternal as the Jets hired Adam Gase, the ousted head coach of rival Miami, to right the ship. Gase was once considered a quarterback guru, but a handful of forgettable years with Ryan Tannehill have tarnished that reputation. Can his experienced coaching staff bring the Jets out of the divisional basement?
Camp Details:
- When: 7/19 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: Atlantic Health Jets Training Center (Florham Park, NJ)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- @New York Giants 7:00pm EDT
- Aug 15 -- @Atlanta 7:30pm
- Aug 24 -- New Orleans 7:30pm
- Aug 29 -- Philadelphia 7:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Fixing Sam Darnold – Outside of Baker Mayfield, last year’s rookie quarterback class has a lot to prove. Darnold started 13 games and finished 31st in passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks. If it weren’t for Josh Rosen, Darnold would’ve been the worst starting quarterback in the league. Can Gase and offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains fix what ails him?
- Building around Le’Veon Bell – Le’Veon Bell signed with the Jets, but it felt more like settling for the best offer than a match made in heaven. Regardless, Bell will be the new focal point of the offense, and fantasy owners are drafting Bell as though he’ll approximate the massive numbers he put up in Pittsburgh. That’s a tall ask, given the questionable supporting talent and less-than-stellar offensive line.
- Finding playmakers for Darnold – Robby Anderson is the de facto No. 1 receiver, but he’s coming off a 752-yard season. Quincy Enunwa is a heady veteran better suited for a complementary role. Jamison Crowder signed in free agency, but he was more hype than reality as the slot receiver in Washington. If Darnold is going to take a big step forward, the team needs to find receivers who can win their individual matchups. It’s not clear that exists on the current roster.
- Who will keep the seat warm for Chris Herndon? – Herndon has a bright future if he can stay out of trouble, but he’ll miss the first month of the season serving a 4-game suspension related to a DUI incident. It’s a wide-open competition for the starting job in his absence, with recently acquired Ryan Griffin the most promising option.
- Creating havoc on defense – Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams believes in pressuring the opposing quarterback and will look to build off last year’s 39 sacks through aggressive blitz packages. He’ll have first-round stud Quinnen Williams and star free agent C.J. Mosley to help the rebuilding process, but there remain questions at outside linebacker and cornerback. The easiest way to make Sam Darnold’s life better is for the Jets defense to put him in better game scripts.
