5 Reasons You Should Avoid Drafting Baker Mayfield

Heading into 2019, the Browns are one of the fan-favorite teams. A significant amount of people are expecting great things after the team’s offseason moves which include a significant trade for Odell Beckham Jr As part of that, the hype in fantasy football with Todd Monken has never been higher for Browns players as Baker Mayfield is currently the fifth quarterback being taken this season. There are five reasons why you should avoid taking him at his current draft price:

1. Mayfield's 2018 season was good, not great
2. His ADP leaves no room for regression
3. The offensive line isn't necessarily on solid footing
4. Negative plays put a ceiling on his total passing attempts
5. The Browns schedule appears significantly more difficult this year

2018 REVIEW: GOOD, NOT GREAT

Baker Mayfield was electric in leading the Browns to a 7-7 record last season. On an extrapolated 16 game season, he would have thrown for 4,257 yards and 32 touchdowns which is outstanding for a rookie. The problem for Mayfield was the turnovers in 2018 as he played just 13.5 games last year and finished tied for 3rd in terms of interceptions with 14. Had he played the full 16 games he would have led the league in interceptions while being just 12th in passing attempts over the same 16 game period.

Below is a simple table which the purpose of it is to show that if Mayfield does not improve, here are some comparable stat lines from last season and some quarterbacks who had very similar numbers to Mayfield:

THERE IS NO UPSIDE AT MAYFIELD'S CURRENT PRICE

There is a ton of things to like about Baker Mayfield this season, but the biggest knock against him as a fantasy player has nothing to do with him being a real football player. The biggest criticism one can have against Mayfield is that the hype has gotten out of control. He currently is the 5th quarterback taken off the board ahead of players who have a longer track record of consistent success such as Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson. Mayfield falls into this panic zone for drafters as he is 8 to 9 spots below DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers, and is being drafted 10 to 15 spots ahead of Matt Ryan.

A significant portion of Baker Mayfield’s projected increase is based on the acquisition of Odell Beckham. While Beckham is one of the best wide receivers in the game, the reality is that he has not been able to stay on the field consistently over the last two seasons. In 2017, he played just four games and in 2018 he played 12 games. So the question you have to ask yourself in forecasting Baker Mayfield is whether Odell Beckham is going to be the guy who puts Mayfield into the top 5 as a fantasy quarterback. Based on history, that may be tough to assume. While Beckham no doubt helps any offense, the Giants last season scored 22.5 points per game with Beckham, and 25.5 points per game without him (including a game that they were shut out).

One of the major drawbacks for Mayfield is that based on his size and lack of speed he is extremely unlikely to be running in the red zone especially when they have Nick Chubb and will be able to incorporate Kareem Hunt later in the season. With Mayfield being the fifth quarterback taken off the board, here are two comparison quarterbacks from last year. Essentially, Mayfield is going to have to throw 8 more touchdowns and 350 more yards or run for a few touchdowns just to get to the 5th spot. It’s a tall order: to rely on just for him to reach his drafted value.

THE OFFENSIVE LINE: WILL IT BE AS GOOD?

By most accounts, the offensive line vastly exceeded expectations last season. The team had a major hole to fill at left tackle with Joe Thomas’ departure and after switching from Desmond Harrison to Greg Robinson the team’s offensive line was by most expert opinions one of the best in the league as Footballguys’ Matt Bitonti at the end of last season had the Browns as a top-five offensive line.

This season the Browns gave Greg Robinson a contract that indicates even they are unsure if the left tackle can continue his performance from last season as they committed to a one-year deal to the former number two overall pick who has bounced around the league a few times before being signed as a backup last season. At right tackle, the Browns are going to once again start the inconsistent Chris Hubbard and the question will be what form of Chris Hubbard the Browns will get as the first half he was one of the worst right tackles in the league allowing 6 sacks and 19 hurries while playing much better the second half of the season. The Browns are going to be relying on both Robinson and Hubbard to continue their second-half play to protect Mayfield and if one of them regresses to the level that we have seen before from them it could be a long year from a pressure standpoint.

At the guard position, the Browns traded right guard Kevin Zeitler in the offseason which will force Austin Corbett a second-round pick to step in at right guard. While the offensive line is still talented with Pro Bowl left guard Joel Bitonio leading the way, the question will be can a group that exceeded expectations last season continue to be a strength for this team. Matt Bitonti expects some regression from this group as he has downgraded them from 5th last season to 15th this season.

NEGATIVE PLAYS LEAD TO LACK OF ATTEMPTS

Baker Mayfield has a significant amount of confidence and is a gunslinger quarterback thinking he can make every throw. As part of that turnovers are bound to happen in the NFL as Mayfield. As we previously discussed, Mayfield was third in the NFL in interceptions and first on a 16-game extrapolated basis. As part one of the things that we saw last season was the Browns abandon the passing attack when they were winning. With the Browns expected to be much better this season will this trend continue? Once Kareem Hunt returns, the Browns will have one of the best running back tandems in the NFL and could very easily rely on that rushing attack in games that they have control over.

2019 PROJECTIONS

FINAL THOUGHTS

Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense should be improved and Mayfield is one of the bright stars in the NFL who people love. As part of that love that the Browns, Mayfield, and newly acquired Odell Beckham are receiving means that people want to overspend to get them on to their fantasy team. When looking at building a fantasy team we are looking for players who can exceed their value and based on where Mayfield is currently being drafted it is difficult to project him to exceed the fifth quarterback spot due to his schedule, offensive line questions, and turnover questions which could lead to an increase in the rushing attack. Of the Footballguys that rank quarterbacks not a single one has Mayfield higher than the fifth quarterback so by selecting him fifth you’re paying top dollar for him with some downside risk that he finishes somewhere in the 6-10 range. The moral of the story is that while the Browns are going to be a lot of fun to watch, that does not mean that you have to have a player on their team on your fantasy team as someone in your league will overreact to the hype and want to be the guy who has the fun player on his team.

OTHER THOUGHTS

CBS Sports Staff believes Baker Mayfield could be on an upward trajectory similar to Patrick Mahomes II this year:

"If you're looking for the next Patrick Mahomes II without paying full price, Baker Mayfield is your best bet in the sixth round. Mayfield was on a 4,300-yard, 33-touchdown pace as a starter in 2018 that was only better if you look just at the games with Freddie Kitchens in charge (4,508 yards, 38 touchdowns). Now add Odell Beckham to the equation, and Mayfield is one of a handful of quarterbacks for whom you can make a coherent argument as the best in Fantasy."

FanDuel's Zach Brunner believes a sophomore slump could be coming for Mayfield:

"Have you ever heard of the sophomore slump? While Baker Mayfield is a great quarterback, he will likely experience this in 2019. Even though the Browns brought in some big-time weapons, including Odell Beckham Jr, to play with him, he is being overrated simply because the team as a whole is. Mayfield is currently being selected as the fifth quarterback based on his ADP, but he's truly more of a back-end QB1. While Mayfield is likely to have a big season, he's still overrated when it comes to fantasy right now."