Eliminator Pool: Week 16

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

The San Francisco Bay area teams cost the staff five losses, as both the 49ers and Raiders took a loss in Week 15. Four staffers took it on the chin with Atlanta's upset win against San Francisco, while the Raiders' Oakland finale before becoming the Las Vegas Raiders was also a surprising loss. The five losses raised the staff's total losses to 58 on the season. That means that the average staffer in the pool has just over three losses, but Sean Settle remains out in front at 14-1 with two weeks to play. Dave Larkin, Jeff Haseley, and Jason Wood are all tied for second at 13-2, just one game behind. Two tough choices remain and they get exponentially harder to select. December is here, so let's take a look at the Week 16 picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 16 looks to be a challenging one, and not just because it is the penultimate week of the regular season. Only two teams (Seattle and Baltimore) are big favorites, with a handful of teams in the 6- to 7.5-point favorite zone this week (New England, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver and Kansas City). Nearly all of those teams are likely already used (Seattle, Baltimore, New England, San Franciso) or tough teams to have much confidence in this season (Chargers, Denver, Atlanta). That leaves the Kansas City Chiefs as the most likely pick this week, but any of the aforementioned teams are viable options. Given that 15 teams have already been used and that there is just one week to go, taking the best of limited options is clearly the path forward. Look for a lot of Chiefs' picks this week from the staff an in many pools for Week 16.

Thursday Morning Update: The picks are in for Week 16, and you can tell how hard it is to make a good pick with close to half of the teams not available for the staff. Four teams dominate the picks this week, starting with Atlanta (four selections) and Denver (also four picks). Both the Falcons and the Broncos are home favorites by right around a touchdown, with Atlanta hosting Jacksonville and Denver entertaining Detroit. Six staffers split two more teams with three votes each - Kansas City and Seattle. All four of these teams represent nearly all of the picks for Week 16 for the staff, with just three unique picks - Indianapolis (Jeff Haseley), Miami (James Brimacombe) and Pittsburgh (Andy Hicks). The selection of the Dolphins looks to be quite the contrarian pick, but Miami at home against Cincinnati is about the best you can ask for if you want to go with the Dolphins this season. The Colts have Carolina coming to town with a brand new starting quarterback (Will Grier), so that looks like a reasonable option and strong "against the grain" selection for Week 16. Pittsburgh needs to beat the Jets this week, so taking the Steelers on the road looks solid, but keep in mind the revenge factor for LeVeon Bell in facing his former team. With seven different picks across the group, the standings are very likely to shuffle once again as we head to the final week of the season.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Before I provide the reasoning for my Week 16 pick, here is a review of the summary I provided last week of the weekly breakdown of which teams are likely to be favored by at least six points (with one exception that I will explain in a moment):

Week 16 (3+ games):

• (Saturday) New England (-6) vs. Buffalo (actual line: New England -6.5)
• Baltimore (-7.5) at Cleveland (actual line: Baltimore -10)
• *Indianapolis (-5.5) vs. Carolina (actual line: Indianapolis -7)
• *Denver (-5.5) vs. Detroit (actual line: Denver -6.5 to -7)
• Seattle (-13.5) vs. Arizona (actual line: Seattle -9.5 to -10)

*Added games with 5.5-point expected favorites

Week 17 (9 games):

• Minnesota (-6.5) vs. Chicago
• Kansas City (-9.5) vs. LA Chargers
• New England (-15) vs. Miami
• New Orleans (-7) at Carolina
• Buffalo (-9) vs. NY Jets
• Philadelphia (-6) at NY Giants
• Baltimore (-11.5) vs. Pittsburgh
• Dallas (-11.5) vs. Washington
• LA Rams (-12) vs. Arizona

See Week 14's breakdown for commentary on the list above, but let's talk about the teams that are added to the Week 16 list: San Francisco (-6 to -6.5) vs. the Rams, Atlanta (-7 to -7.5) versus Jacksonville, the Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5 to -7) hosting the Raiders, and Kansas City (-5 to -6) at Chicago. San Francisco is looking to rebound from a tough upset to Atlanta, but many have already used the 49ers (or possibly lost with them last week). Atlanta and the Chargers are tough to trust, but the Falcons have been playing well of late and the Chargers get a Raiders team that is reeling after a bad loss in their final contest in Oakland. Atlanta makes for a good contrarian pick for Week 16, but expect a lot of choices to go with the Chiefs in Chicago. Kansas City is still pushing for a potential bye week in the AFC, and the Bears are sputtering towards the end of the season. No pick is ever a sure thing, but the Chiefs are -250 on the road, which means that Las Vegas thinks that Kansas City wins over 70% of the time in this matchup (the Money Line -250 implies the favorite would win 5 out of 7 contests). After taking a tough loss with the Raiders last week, I will go with a road favorite that is pushing for playoff momentum and a higher seeding.

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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