Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
A dismal betting week has set my personal record back; my only hope is that you weren’t as badly affected as I was with a regrettable 4-10 record. I should note that this follows two strong weeks, so hopefully, your bankroll hasn’t been dented too much. Setbacks happen when we wager on football, but now is no time to slump our shoulders. Let’s dig into this week and get back on the horse.
The byes are in the rear-view mirror, so we have a full slate of games to sink our teeth into.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday - Thanksgiving) CHICAGO (-1) at DETROIT (Over/Under 39)
The Lions suffered the ultimate ignominy last week – a loss to the down-and-out Washington Redskins (whose quarterback is Dwayne Haskins). Not exactly the ideal script heading into a tradition like the Thanksgiving early game. The loss of Matthew Stafford has turned this team from a lively one into a moribund unit, seemingly bereft of a spark with a rash of injuries. Picking up the pieces against a Bears defense that itself appeared to have some life against the Giants will be tough for Jeff Driskel and his offensive teammates.
The hope for the Lions, of course, rests on the talents of Mitchell Trubisky. Talents that, most would acknowledge, have been lacking over the 2019 season. Against subpar opponents like the Giants, Trubisky is more than capable of holding his own and even notching a couple of scores. The Detroit defense at home tends to play hard, though, making things a little less easy and breezy for the Windy City’s quarterback. If nothing else, Driskel is a fighter; Trubisky, meanwhile, feels like a mistake waiting to happen. The spot here is good for the home team – Thanksgiving, at home and coming off an embarrassing loss.
Pick: Detroit
(Thursday - Thanksgiving) BUFFALO at DALLAS (-7) (Over/Under 45)
The Bills are 10-7-1 (58.8% against the spread) as the away underdog under Sean McDermott and 13-8-1 as the away team, numbers that will give them some encouragement entering the cauldron of Jerry World on Thanksgiving. Just as many of us are settling into our post-meal stupor, these teams will duke it out – though one must acknowledge the stakes are higher for one team than the other.
In the NFC playoff picture, the path is clear for the Cowboys, but they cannot afford many slip-ups with their division rival Philadelphia on their tail. Ten wins should suffice for the NFC East crown, but Jason Garrett will be keen to notch those victories sooner rather than later. The match-up with Buffalo, a team sitting pretty in the AFC wildcard race, presents as a great spot for the Cowboys to bounce back. Having gone toe to toe with New England for large swathes of Sunday’s game, the prospect of the Bills defense will seem less daunting. The seven-point spread is a little rich, however, especially against a team as solid as Buffalo. Take the points.
Pick: Buffalo
(Thursday - Thanksgiving) NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 50)
Is it truly over for Dan Quinn after the home loss to Tampa Bay? Whatever magic potion he had concocted to orchestrate wins over the Saints and Panthers evaporated quickly as they tried to complete the NFC South trifecta, with the embattled Jameis Winston slicing and dicing a defense that looked unstoppable the past two weeks. The Saints come to Atlanta this week seeking a 10th win – and one that would put them only a hair’s breadth away from an NFC South title.
As for the Falcons, a short week may be just the trick to quickly get over Sunday’s shambles. Julio Jones’ health bears monitoring, as does that of Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore, whose absence was keenly felt against Carolina. These teams tend to produce memorable games no matter the occasion or stakes, so this should provide excellent fare for late on your Thanksgiving evening. The spread here appears a little reactionary to the Saints’ recent run – and Atlanta’s loss last week – so the play here is probably the under 50 if you are considering a punt.
Pick: New Orleans
TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (-3) (Over/Under 43)
Statistically, the Titans and Colts are almost perfectly aligned. Identical records at 6-5; points scored (245 for Tennessee, 244 for Indianapolis); points allowed (217 to 226) and both are 4-2 at home and 2-3 on the road. Something’s gotta give in this crucial AFC South clash that could essentially eliminate one of these sides from playoff contention. The Colts have the benefit of additional rest days, having played on Thursday night last week, but it may not even matter. The trajectory is worrying for Frank Reich’s team. Jacoby Brissett appears tentative at times, while on the other side Ryan Tannehill is playing with verve and freedom.
The homefield advantage could be the deciding factor in what projects as a toss-up affair. If there is one thing Indianapolis can do well, it is play defense. A young core of players has blossomed nicely this season on that side of the ball, lifting the team in key moments. Dealing with Derrick Henry is always a chore, however, and Tannehill has enough in his toolbox to keep this one close to the end. In a game that should have a palpable playoff-style intensity around it, the best play is to take the points.
Pick: Tennessee
NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 39.5)
The arrow is pointing up for the Jets. Previously dismissed after a dismal run with Luke Falk at quarterback, followed swiftly by the infamous ‘ghost’ game against the Patriots, suddenly Sam Darnold is finding his groove. A piece in the New York Times this week referenced Darnold’s assertiveness in the huddle, constructively criticizing errors of teammates and asking for plays to be run again in practice if it is not to his liking. The AFC wildcard race is unpredictable enough that, considering the Jets’ schedule down the stretch, they could conceivably sneak a place at the table.
The Bengals are going nowhere near that table. In fact, they may be on the outside of the restaurant looking in, pondering how they can turn their franchise around in short order. The reality is that a quick fix isn’t apparent, though the signs of Bungle for Burrow, a reference to LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, in the stands in Cincinnati indicate hope may be in sight. The inexorable march towards the number one pick should continue for this team against the red-hot Jets.
Pick: New York
WASHINGTON at CAROLINA (-10) (Over/Under 40.5)
The inauspicious end to Dwayne Haskins’ first win as a starter will occupy some airwaves this week, but ultimately it was a young, enthusiastic kid who made a mistake in a moment of joy. Still, it does speak to a lack of maturity, something Haskins has displayed in his starts this season – and a key aspect of his game that Carolina’s veteran defense will look to exploit. Terry McLaurin continues to provide a glimmer of hope for the offense’s future, but there is a sense that Washington, having played their way out of the first draft pick, will come down to earth this week.
The Panthers are not officially eliminated from playoff contention at 5-6, but they may as well be. Joey Slye’s two missed extra points and one missed field goal proved critical in the Superdome, erasing a potentially season-saving win. Ron Rivera is fighting for his job, so we can expect a fired-up Carolina team to take out their frustrations on the Redskins. Under Rivera, the Panthers are 34-24-1 against the spread after a loss. Even with a 10-point spread, it is hard to see a way past the home team.
Pick: Carolina
SAN FRANCISCO at BALTIMORE (-4.5) (Over/Under 46)
Saddle up for this one, because it should be an absolute barnburner. The 49ers swatted aside the Green Bay resistance on Sunday night casually, as a person would with a fly at dinner. The Ravens, however, will prove to be more of a nuisance. There are so many fascinating subplots to dive into, but the one that stands out from a San Francisco perspective is how Robert Saleh’s defense will game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson, the front runner for league MVP. No team is better equipped than the 49ers to do just that, but the Ravens will have plenty up their sleeves as well.
From Baltimore’s point of view, this game is crucial in the grand scheme of things. A loss would invite more teams back into contention for a bye in the playoffs, with Houston and Kansas City hot on their heels. A win, however, would vault them into a perfect position for the stretch run. Baltimore’s defense has turned it on in the past few weeks, and they should be able to compete well against the 49ers’ receiving corps. Make no mistake: this is a popcorn match-up that should be absorbed in its entirety between two of the best teams in the league. The home advantage gives the Ravens a slight edge, but 4.5 points is a little steep.
Pick: San Francisco
TAMPA BAY at JACKSONVILLE (-1.5) (Over/Under 49)
Jacksonville’s defense has been utterly abject against the run the past few games, but this may be just the opponent to put an end to that skid. After all, Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has been forgettable this season, often playing a deserving second fiddle to their dynamic passing attack. If we see good Jameis Winston, this one could be over by half-time; bad Jameis, though, could throw a spanner in the works.
The Jaguars and Bucs are not going to the playoffs, but this could be a sneaky entertaining affair. From a front office perspective, the Jaguars’ players and coaches are under pressure to produce a performance in front of their home fans, with owner Shahid Khan undoubtedly growing impatient with his team’s direction. The Bucs are a difficult team to trust on a week to week basis, and with the spread at just 1.5 points the slight nod goes to the Jaguars, who are in a good spot to rebound and need it more.
Pick: Jacksonville
CLEVELAND (-1) at PITTSBURGH (Over/Under 40)
Things move quickly in the NFL. Only two weeks ago the Browns and Steelers locked horns in a contentious game that ended with a now-infamous melee; fast forward to this week and the teams renew acquaintances with playoff aspirations on the line. The Browns made short work of the Steelers last time out, but this one may not be as straightforward. Pittsburgh is rarely tagged as a home underdog in the Mike Tomlin era, but in games where they have been getting points, they are 10-3-2 (76.9%) against the spread. Not too shabby.
This is a fascinating spot for the Browns, a team unaccustomed to success. Many a team have seen their playoff dreams die in Heinz Field over the years. What makes this game even spicier is that Pittsburgh, with a win, can take a further step to securing their own playoff spot. As things stand, the sixth seed is under their control; Cleveland will try to take it away from them. History teaches us lessons about teams’ fortunes, and in this case, it points to a sea of yellow towels waving on a cold December afternoon as jubilant fans rejoice in the ineptitude of an old rival.
Pick: Pittsburgh
GREEN BAY (-7.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (Over/Under 46.5)
The pundits heaped praise on the 49ers after Sunday night’s demolition of the Packers, but perhaps just as much blame should rest on the shoulders of Green Bay’s players for folding in prime time. It is not often that Aaron Rodgers and the offense are so convincingly shut down, especially under the lights. Matt LaFleur’s team has an uphill battle to secure a bye, but all hope is not yet lost. One game back on the Saints, with a handful of winnable games down the stretch, there could be playoff football at Lambeau for more than just one game in January.
The opponent this week helps the Packers, too. If the fans of Big Blue are brutally honest, despite the arrival of franchise savior Daniel Jones this has been yet another season to forget in what has become a worrying trend for a once-proud organization. Saquon Barkley isn’t clicking, Jones is still making rookie mistakes and the defense isn’t stout enough to compete. All of it points to what should be a somewhat intriguing game that peters out into a predictable win for the Pack. Even at 7.5 points, this is an excellent spot for the away team to rebound.
Pick: Green Bay
PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) at MIAMI (Over/Under 46)
The Eagles are on the outside looking in as far as the playoff picture, but a favorable run of games – starting this week in Miami – could vault them back into the conversation come January. Carson Wentz sustained a hand injury last week, something to monitor as the game approaches. A hobbled Wentz gives the Dolphins, as talent deficient as their roster is, a sliver of hope, a scintilla of inspiration. Since 2016 when Doug Pederson took over as head coach, the Eagles are a worrying 4-7 against the spread as an away favorite. Advantage, Miami?
Well, not quite. After all, the Dolphins, after rallying the troops for a couple of wins, have turned back into a pumpkin – and in spectacular fashion. The Browns shellacked them for 40+ points last week, the first of what could be a stretch of gut-punching losses before the end of the season. The Philadelphia defense has been playing outstanding football of late, so Ryan Fitzpatrick figures to have a tough task on his hands. Lay the points with the birds.
Pick: Philadelphia
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 46.5)
Things are not panning out for the Rams. The Monday Night Football undressing they received at the hands of the red-hot Ravens must be a major concern for Sean McVay, whose master plan has shriveled into mediocrity. You didn’t have to be a football connoisseur to figure out which team wanted it more in that game. At 6-4, the Rams are still in contention for an improbable playoff berth, but does the football world need to see this unsteady team playing for Lombardi? The chances are, it won’t happen – and Arizona could be the fly in the ointment.
Granted, the Cardinals are playing purely for pride, but remember they took the 49ers to the brink in Santa Clara just two weeks ago. Kyler Murray has settled in nicely as a starter, making fewer errors and creating plays on the back of his rare physical tools. The prevailing sentiment here will be that the Rams are poised for a return to form against a subpar team, but this Cardinals team is not giving up. How many times have we seen them upset better teams in the late afternoon window just as Scott Hanson is wrapping up NFL RedZone? Arizona should keep this close and could even snatch a victory.
Pick: Arizona
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1) at DENVER (Over/Under 38.5)
Could we be witnessing the slow demise of Philip Rivers as a viable NFL starting quarterback? It is possible, though perhaps the death knell has been rung a little too prematurely after the ugly four-interception display in Mexico. With a 4-7 record, the Chargers are essentially eliminated from the postseason, so Anthony Lynn faces the prospect of inspiring a group of players to finish the season strong. The return of Derwin James is a significant boost for a defense that sorely missed his talents for this season.
The Broncos quarterback situation remains in flux, with the likelihood being that rookie Drew Lock at least sees some action in this game. The whispers out of Mile High haven’t exactly been glowing for Lock, but there is no better time ostensibly to get him some much-needed game action than the tail end of a lost season. Honestly, the dead-rubber nature of this clash makes it a risky one to place a wager on. A stay away if ever I’ve seen one.
Pick: Los Angeles
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY (-9.5) (Over/Under 54.5)
The Chiefs need to get out of the habit of losing games they should be winning. The loss to the Titans, a game they dominated for long periods, sticks out as a prime example; there can be no mistake with this week’s clash, a pivotal AFC West battle against the only team that could catch them for the crown – the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes II looked healthy in Mexico, but the offense was generally morose and lacked a spark that had been its trademark. The Raiders pass defense should cure what ails the Chiefs, who should have Tyreek Hill back after an injury scare. With two weeks to prepare, who knows what Andy Reid, historically excellent off bye weeks, has cooked up?
As for Jon Gruden, his Raiders were swept aside easily by the Jets last week while the Chiefs had their feet up. A peeved Gruden even pulled his starting quarterback – in the third quarter, no less. Normally this would profile as a prime spot to bounce back for the Raiders, who are not as bad as they showed last week – but perhaps not as good as public perception would have you believe. Oakland is competing with Pittsburgh for a sixth wildcard spot, with both teams at 6-5. This is a must-win game in the story of the Raiders’ season, and one that, with a steady offensive performance, they should be able to keep close on the scoreboard.
Pick: Oakland
(Sunday Night) NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) at HOUSTON (Over/Under 44.5)
Doesn’t it just seem that Bill Belichick relishes playing in the wet and windy conditions of Foxborough, thus leveling the playing field (as if it needed to be). No such luck this week against his old protégé Bill O’Brien with the forecast predicting a clear, warm night in Houston. This should be a fascinating clash to finish off the Thanksgiving weekend, with the battle of wits between Deshaun Watson and the Patriots defense surely the cherry on top.
Betting against the Patriots in primetime games has generally been a losing proposition over the Belichick/Brady era, so it would be unwise to get into that habit on this occasion. The Texans could present some interesting problems to the Patriots on both sides of the ball – New England hasn’t played many offenses as explosive as this unit this season – but the Patriots defense is simply too strong to overcome. Tom Brady and the offense should be able to play ball control to kill this one off.
Pick: New England
(Monday Night) MINNESOTA at SEATTLE (-3) (Over/Under 49)
The Vikings come off a bye week and step into the cauldron of CenturyLink Field in Seattle in prime time, not exactly the best way to begin the home stretch. Kirk Cousins has successfully silenced many of his detractors with his performance this season; he will need every ounce of that quality play to knock off the Seahawks and MVP contender Russell Wilson.
These teams played a tight game in Seattle last season, with the Seahawks coming out on top. This one profiles as a back-and-forth affair, however, with neither defense playing up to its potential for sustained stretches. The Seahawks defense should be given credit for its recent run of games, however. It is rare enough that Seattle is laying only three points at home in prime time, a plum spot for a team that generally annihilates opponents when the bright lights are on. Jump on before the line goes out to 3.5.
Pick: Seattle
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Playoff places will be won and lost over the next few weeks, and time is running out for the teams on the bubble. Week 12 proved to be a chastening one for yours truly, but there is no better way to bounce back than with a clean sweep. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 SEATTLE (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
- 2 NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) at HOUSTON
- 3 ARIZONA (+4) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS
- 4 PITTSBURGH (+1) vs. CLEVELAND
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 13 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- PITTSBURGH (+1)
- ARIZONA (+4)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.67-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (+1)
- ARIZONA (+4)
- NEW ENGLAND (-3.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- NEW ENGLAND (-3.5)
- SEATTLE (-3)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: New England, Seattle, Oakland, Arizona, Pittsburgh
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 4-10
- SEASON OVERALL: 93-83 (52.8%)
- BEST BETS: 23-22 (41%), last week 1-3
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 32-23 (58%), last week 1-4
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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