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Welcome to Learning from History, where I dig into every fantasy season since 1985 to find historical comparisons for modern players.

Today, we look at Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is one of the most productive fantasy quarterbacks the league has ever seen. (He's not too shabby as a real-life quarterback, either.) In fact, despite the late start to his career, only Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Brett Favre have produced more points above replacement since 1985, though Dan Marino would also jump Rodgers if we went back two more seasons. This despite the fact that Rodgers has started just 158 career games and each of those other five quarterbacks started a minimum of 240. Only Steve Young can match Rodgers' 1000 career points over replacement with fewer career starts.

But one important rule for fantasy football is you don't get points for the past, so the question becomes what does Rodgers have left in the tank. And to answer that question, it's helpful to look at some of the all-time greats who have come before.

Comparison #1: The Best Fantasy QBs since 1985

Let's start simple and straightforward. I mentioned that Rodgers was one of the best fantasy quarterbacks we've seen. How did the others in that rare company fare as they aged? Here's every quarterback sorted by points above replacement (since 1985) through age 35. I've also included their average per-year (APY) fantasy value from ages 36-38 and total remaining career value. (Bear in mind that Drew Brees and Tom Brady can still potentially add to their totals there.)

As always, we'll begin with a few quick bookkeeping notes. Any value marked with an asterisk above is not included in the averages at the bottom. In this case, this just means I'm not holding the fact that Aaron Rodgers hasn't produced any value after age 35 against Aaron Rodgers. Brees and Brady are included in the averages despite both being active; both have averaged about 50 points of value per season over the last two years, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to think they could add another 50-100 points to their total still. (Then again, perhaps they won't.)

Also, when considering these numbers, it's helpful to have a sense of scale. Having 120 points of value is roughly equivalent to a "typical" top fantasy quarterback season. In 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, the #1 fantasy quarterback finished within 5 points of that mark. In total, an average of 1.8 quarterbacks per year have reached that level over the past decade. Rarer seasons— Patrick Mahomes II in 2018, Peyton Manning's 2013, or Rodgers' own 2011— score above 160 points. All told, there have been five seasons above that level in the last decade, an average of one every other year.

A mid-level starting quarterback generally nets about 60 points above a replacement player. In the past decade, an average of 5.9 players per season met that mark (though the total varies from year to year, with a high of nine such seasons in 2011 and a low of two in 2013). Finally, 30 points above replacement is about the cutoff point for a low-end starter; over the past decade, we've seen 110 quarterbacks hit that mark, though again there's a little bit of season-to-season variation (14 players last year, just 8 in 2016).

With those thresholds in mind, just three of the nine best fantasy quarterbacks of the last thirty years (Peyton Manning, Steve Young, and John Elway) have been above-average QB1s in their age 36-38 seasons, on average. Overall the group averaged about 45 points of value per season, roughly equivalent to QB8 in a typical year.

Granted, some of those comparable quarterbacks were already in decline at this point. But this hardly exonerates Rodgers, who is coming off the worst two-season stretch of his career for fantasy purposes and whose four worst fantasy seasons have all come in his last six years.

Comparison #2: Great Quarterbacks Potentially In Decline

For a moment, let's consider that maybe the most relevant characteristic of Aaron Rodgers is not his age, but his recent decline. He has failed to reach 60 points of value in either of the last two seasons, making him a below-average starting fantasy quarterback in both. A lot of the optimism surrounding Rodgers hinges on his potential to get back into the upper echelons. How realistic is this optimism given that he's averaged 67 points of value— essentially a middle-of-the-road starting fantasy quarterback— over the last six years after averaging 132 points of value over his first five as a starter?

This comparison is a bit more complicated. I wanted to find every quarterback since 1985 with at least one season of 120 points above replacement to isolate the high-end starters from guys like Ben Roethlisberger (a career high of 90 points above replacement) or Philip Rivers (101). Then I removed all of the one-hit wonders from the list (sorry Steve Beuerlein, Scott Mitchell, and Don Majkowski). Finally, I noted the first time after age 28 that each quarterback (A) scored fewer than 80 points above replacement in back-to-back seasons and (B) totaled fewer than 120 points above replacement in both seasons combined. Basically, I'm looking for high-end QB1s who backslid and became low-end QB1s or worse at some point.

Here's that chart with each quarterback's name, the age at which they first satisfied the "decline" criteria above, and finally how many seasons they had after that initial decline where they produced 40-59, 60-79, 80-99, 100-119, and 120+ points of value.

On average, high-end fantasy quarterbacks who backslid to become low-end starting quarterbacks had about one and a half seasons as a fantasy starter left in the tank. Their odds of ever reaching their early-career heights were much lower, however. In fact, only three of the quarterbacks in question ever again topped 100 fantasy points above replacement.

Dan Marino ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, 5th, and 4th from 1984-1988, topping 80 points above replacement in each season, before falling to 9th and 10th in 1989 and 1990. Marino would rebound to finish 4th and 3rd in 1991 and 1992, to score the 3rd-most points per game in an injury-shortened 1993, and finally to top 100 points of value once again in 1994. But at age 29 at the time of his "decline", Marino is an outlier in this group; Marino was still only 33 in his last big season, three years younger than Rodgers will be in 2019.

Randall Cunningham was a fantasy force for the Eagles from 1987 to 1992 before a torn ACL robbed him of his edge as a rusher. His "decline" was not gentle like Rodgers' has been. In fact, Cunningham retired from football entirely in 1995. After a year away he was lured back to football by the Vikings in 1997, he put up an MVP-caliber season in 1998, and he got benched once again in 1999.

Finally, Steve Young (perhaps the most comparable quarterback to Rodgers himself) was the most dominant quarterback in fantasy football from 1991 to 1995 before putting up his worst season to that point in 1996 and finishing even worse in 1997. Young rebounded the next year with the single most dominant fantasy season since 1985, but it would be his last season as a fantasy starter as concussions forced him to retire shortly after.

Comparison #3: Solid Quarterbacks In Their Early 30s

To some extent, I think trying to find historical comparisons for Aaron Rodgers is a bit of a trap. To this point, our comparisons have been primarily influenced by how absurdly dominant Rodgers was in his 20s. And to be sure, there's been some of that in his thirties, too— Rodgers scored about 120 points over replacement at age 31 and 33. But huge fantasy outputs have become more the exception than the rule thanks to injuries and a general decline in the level of play.

Aaron Rodgers has about 400 points over a replacement player over the last six years, which is a very strong total. But it's not a dominant figure like we've seen from Brees, Brady, or Young (all of whom were well over 600 points over replacement over the same span). Nor is it nearly as disappointing of a figure as we saw from Favre, Cunningham, or McNabb, who were all well shy of 300. It was just a solid overall showing.

For this final list of comparable players, I've grabbed every quarterback since 1985 who provided between 370 and 430 points above replacement from ages 29-34 or 30-35. Only five names matched, and instead of a chart, I'd like to discuss them all individually from the least interesting to the most.

Jeff Garcia might seem like an odd name to come up, but after taking over for Steve Young midway through 1999, he put up 160 and 120 points of value in 2000 and 2001, then 60 and 80 points in 2002 and 2003, giving him a combined total 426 points above replacement from ages 28-34 despite virtual zeroes in the first and last years of that span. On the surface, "elite fantasy star who seemingly was in decline" seems like a decent comparison, but Garcia had left the 49ers in free agency after 2003 and been cut by the Browns after 2004. Aaron Rodgers might not be at his 2011 peak anymore, but he's also nowhere near "cut by one of the most quarterback-needy franchises in the league" levels, either.

Since he's in the Hall of Fame, Jim Kelly might seem like a more fitting comparison. In many ways, however, he's even worse than Garcia. Kelly added 376 points of value from ages 29 through 34 and then was essentially done as a fantasy asset. But despite memories of how potent his offense was, Kelly was not the top-end fantasy weapon that Rodgers has been; only once in his career did Kelly finish better than sixth in total fantasy value added.

Warren Moon is also an all-time great but is almost incomparable. The first black quarterback and the first undrafted quarterback enshrined in the Hall of Fame, the former fact wholly explains the latter; Moon came out of college in a time when many still didn't believe black men could play quarterback, so he was forced to spend six years establishing himself as the best player in the history of the Canadian Football League before the NFL would give him a chance. Warren Moon's NFL career started slowly before picking up steam, and he eventually accumulated 396 points of value between ages 29 and 34. Moon was just getting started; he still ranks 1st or 2nd in most passing yards after age 37, after age 38, after age 39, after age 40, after age 41, and after age 42. Moon finished with six more seasons as a starting-caliber fantasy quarterback, including two seasons as a high-end starter with nearly 100 points of value.

Dan Marino represents something of the worst case for Aaron Rodgers. A statistical monster and MVP in his 20s, Marino slowed a little bit in his early 30s. From age 30 through age 35, Marino accumulated 394 points of value above replacement. He played four healthy seasons during that span (just like Rodgers) and made four pro bowls in those seasons (just like Rodgers), but he also dealt with some nagging injuries and a general decline in effectiveness (just like Rodgers). Unfortunately, that marked the end of the line; despite leading the league in pass attempts at age 36, Marino finished 21st in fantasy value, producing essentially on par with what fantasy owners could expect to get off of waivers. At 37, Marino was a bit better but still not much of an asset, finishing 15th at the position. At 38 Marino was below replacement level entirely. He retired after the season.

If Marino is a worst-case scenario, John Elway (377 points of value from age 30-35) is more of a best-case. Like Rodgers, Elway was considered the kind of talent who leaped off of the film despite not always having the stats to match. Elway's supporters blamed this disconnect on a coach (Dan Reeves) who insisted on forcing him into an offensive system that was stuck in the past; Denver at one point fired offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan because he worked with Elway designing plays behind Reeves' back. Denver finally parted ways with Reeves, brought in new offensive ideas, and Elway's age 33-37 seasons wound up being the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th best years of his career for fantasy purposes. After leaks this offseason revealed Rodgers' dissatisfaction with former head coach Mike McCarthy's offensive system, this kind of late-career renaissance would represent an ideal outcome.

Final Thoughts

There's plenty of precedent for an all-time great like Aaron Rodgers to have three or more quality fantasy seasons left in his future. The problem is one of expectations. Rodgers set them so high early in his career that it will be difficult to live up to them; "middle-of-the-road fantasy starter" would seem less like a quality season and more like a disappointment to many of his supporters. But since 1985 there have only been three seasons by a quarterback 36 or older to top 100 points of value, and the fact that Rodgers' production has been trending down instead of up suggests he's unlikely to join that list. And there have been plenty of other all-time great quarterbacks for whom slight downward trends quickly turned into career-ending slumps.

Granted, the problem with learning from history is that everything that happens had to at one point happen for the very first time. Rodgers, like all historically great quarterbacks, has been an outlier his entire career. He could buck this trend, too. He could have several more top-two fantasy finishes left in front of him. Unfortunately, rising from the weight of history would require him to be an outlier even among the other outliers. It's more likely that Rodgers ages like the Hall-of-Famers who have preceded him, either slowly as he strings together a few more mid-level fantasy seasons, or else all at once.