The FPC: Quarterbacks

Photo: USA Today Sports

By studying the rules of both the FFPC and the FPC along with some of the history and previous performances by FPC players, insights can be found that will help many players to not only compete well in both contests but also to be in a position to win their league and be in the running for a top prize in the championship round.

As the summer rolls on, I will continue analyzing many aspects of the Footballguys Players Championship and the Fantasy Football Players Championship. Through these articles, I hope to provide extra help with fully understanding how to best build a top-notch fantasy team within the contest. As someone who has competed against the best players in the world and in several contests much like the FPC and the FFPC, I fully understand how every possible advantage and extra edge can make all the difference in the world.

THE QUARTERBACK POSITION

Under the microscope this time around is the position of quarterback. According to the rules of the Footballguys Players Championship, the rosters are as follows:

Starting Roster

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 2 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 2 flex players (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 team defense

With the following relevant scoring system in place:

• 4 points for passing touchdowns, 6 points for all other touchdowns
• 0.1 point for every 1 yard rushing or receiving
• 1.5 points per reception for tight ends

With the added clarification for passing scoring:

• 0.05 point - 1 yard passing (multiply total passing yards by 0.05. Example: 275 passing yards = 13.75 fantasy points)
• 4 points - Passing TD
• -1 point - Interception thrown
• 2 points - 2-point conversion

So how do you analyze the impact of this scoring system to the current crop of potential fantasy quarterbacks? We need to dig into some numbers.

First, let's take a look at both the projected scores for the Top 24 quarterbacks this season and calculate some VBD numbers using the worst starter method (QB12 has VBD = 0). The results are in Table 1:

Table 1: FPC Projected Fantasy Points for Top 24 Quarterbacks

The VBD does not do much for a complete analysis without some context of other positions. Looking at the Draft Dominator, we can run a mock draft to get a feel for when the various quarterbacks are slated to come off of the draft board. Table 2 gives some more insight as to when the mock draft says to take a signal caller:

Table 2: Draft Dominator FPC Mock - ADP For Top 24 Quarterbacks

Based on the results, quarterbacks go in two main clusters early, with the first group selected about two rounds after Patrick Mahomes II goes off the board. After the Top 9 options are exhausted, teh end of the QB1s are all gone in the back half of the eighth round. A final run on the upper tier (QB14-20) of the QB2s go in Rounds 10 and 11. This is great for a mock draft, but how about some real-life comparisons? With the help of Clayton Gray here at Footballguys, he has pulled together some great ADP data based on early FPC drafts and created current ADP data for all of the top players. We can use this information to compare against the Draft Dominator mock results. Here are both ADPs compared side-by-side and their relative differences:

Table 3: Draft Dominator FPC Mock vs. 2018 FPC Data - Comparison of ADPs

Several key facts can be pulled from Table 3 about quarterbacks and FPC scoring:

• The top quarterback (Patrick Mahomes II) is going about 2-3 rounds ahead of the second (Deshaun Watson) and third (Andrew Luck) choices, with both coming off the board well behind of where the Draft Dominator projects them to go.
• The next batch of quarterbacks truly depends on personal outlook, as QB4-QB13 all go off the board by pick 150 (middle of Round 13), and all of them going far later than where the Draft Dominator recommends by at least two rounds, possibly more.
• After the Top 11-13 quarterbacks are gone, the rest of the league will tend to wait for the next tier of quarterbacks to be selected. With most of the league already having a starter and six or seven more options, there tends to be no rush to fill out the position.
• Like prior years, teams may wait, wait and wait some more to get their starting quarterback. The quarterbacks in the QB8-QB19 range are all projected to be within a point or two per game, so there is no rush and waiting to be the last one to grab your starter might be an excellent plan.
• Another key item to note is that backup quarterbacks (QB13-QB24) last a long time as well. That reflects that the league has good depth with the likes of Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Philip Rivers all falling to Rounds 12-14 or later.

PARTING THOUGHTS

Every fantasy league and its rulebook are a little different. For the FPC and the FFPC, the quarterback position is not nearly as emphasized as it may be in other leagues. The reduced scoring for passing touchdowns (only four points per touchdown pass) shrinks the disparity between the elite and the very good NFL quarterbacks. Based on Table 1 alone, only five quarterbacks are projected to top 315 fantasy points while the difference between the QB6 and QB21 is only about two points per game. Patrick Mahomes II (projected for 363 points) is expected to outpace most QB1s by 50 or more points this season, or roughly three points per game, which is why Mahomes is going so early. Those three points are tough to chase with a Top 40 pick, and with QB3 through QB12 separated by less than two points per game, waiting once again appears to be the correct strategy at the quarterback position. This is why many suggest to wait on the quarterback position and go with either a committee approach or to grab one of the last elite-caliber quarterbacks near or during the inevitable quarterback run around Round 10.

The benefits of being both disciplined and being able to wait at the quarterback position are huge in the FPC. With seven other positional players in a starting lineup (two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, and two flex players), a patient team owner can grab their starters and then be one of the last to snag their team quarterback. Given that QB12 is only about two points per game below QB2 (or projected to be that much) and less than one below QB5, the penalty of waiting for an extra five or six rounds to draft a quarterback is greatly outweighed by the advantage of filling the rest of the starting lineup.

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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