You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Buy Low, Sell High
Perhaps Sigmund Bloom's greatest strength as a fantasy analyst—and player—is his openness to changing scenarios. It makes him a great pick to pen the feature Buy Low, Sell High. This week, Bloom has some excellent recommendations from both ends of the spectrum.
Jared Goff, QB, LAR - Goff and the Rams offense isn’t playing well right now, but that hasn’t been a hindrance to their numbers, and it shouldn’t be this week vs. Atlanta. Or next week vs. Cincinnati. Baltimore, Arizona, and Seattle are all good matchups to target left on his schedule. He can help fantasy teams win if you time his starts right.
Josh Allen, QB, Devin Singletary, RB, BUF - Allen has an easy schedule coming up with Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland, and Miami again. He should be a viable QB1 to get us to the verge of the fantasy playoffs and has been forgotten about after his scary concussion vs New England. Singletary looked like an instant star at running back in the first two games before his hamstring injury and the Bills were smart to let him rest through the bye. He’s practicing in full and should make a few highlight plays against the morose Dolphins defense.
Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines, RB, IND - Wilkins looks even better than he did last year and continues to show a gaudy yards-per-carry rate that portend better things if he gets more opportunity. Marlon Mack has shown a physical edge finishing runs this year, but can his body hold up all year? That’s how the opportunity could come for Wilkins. Hines looks like one of the 5-10 fastest players in any offense and the Colts should be trying to find ways to use him more as a receiver. Both players are still very much on the upside of their career arc with room to grow.
Dante Pettis, WR, SF - Just another reminder to get Pettis before his stock bounces back. Deebo Samuel is banged up and the 49ers are facing a very beatable Washington pass defense, with a delicious Arizona/Seattle/Arizona sandwich coming up in Weeks 9-11.
SELL HIGH
Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL - Freeman looked renewed in Week 6, but the Arizona defense will do that for players. The Falcons offense is still going to be stuck in pass-first mode and the rest of the schedule features brutal NFC South run defenses and Jacksonville. There might be an opening to sell Freeman to a running back needy team.
Kyle Allen, QB, CAR - Allen hasn’t been as good as his undefeated record as a starter indicates. While there has been the talk of him taking over as the Panthers quarterback permanently, the smart money is on Cam Newton returning to the lineup when he is mentally and physically ready. Cash Allen in if you don’t absolutely need him in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
Matt's Thoughts: While possible that Atlanta's offensive line will trend upward with future performances, it's more likely that Atlanta will find itself in a lot more bad game scripts for the run as the season unfolds. Troy Aikman may think that Kyle Allen should stay in the lineup but unless Newton is truly on his last legs, I agree with Bloom.
You can see my thoughts on Pettis and Goff in this week's Top 10. Wilkins is also a preemptive consideration I have recommended earlier in the year.
2. DFS Roundtable: Changing Running Back Depth Charts
Chad Parsons moderates this weekly quartet of DFS questions posed to a panel Footballguys. Below is Parson's question and my favorite set of answers from the panel from Footballguy James Brimacombe:
Which backfield are you attracted to for Week 7 DFS lineups? Are some 'stay away until further notice?'
- Rams (Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, no Todd Gurley in Week 6, Shootout potential at Atlanta)
- Saints (at Chicago, Alvin Kamara dinged up, Latavius Murray)
- Chargers (at Tennessee, full RBBC between Melvin Gordon III and Austin Ekeler Week 6, both ineffective)
- Washington (vs. San Francisco, Adrian Peterson last man standing?)
- Giants (vs. Arizona, how will you address the situation if Saquon Barkley is back? What if Barkley is out and Gallman is back?)
JAMES BRIMACOMBE
Rams - In theory it makes sense to just insert whatever running back is up against the Falcons each week but I think the Rams situation is somewhat different here. With Gurley banged up, no trust in Henderson to even see touches, and Brown apparently just a guy I think you want to go heavy on the Rams passing game here.
3. The Gut Check: Buy Into the 49ers RB TAndem
Zach Prieston contacted Ryan Hester and me with a comparison of the run games of the Falcons under Kyle Shanahan, the New Orleans Saints, and Shanahan's 49ers. It was good enough to share in this week's Gut Check and add more to the picture:
It was common sense that San Francisco would split its workload, but the injuries made the projections cloudy. Coleman, Breida, and McKinnon all dealt with injuries at some point during the summer. I thought Breida was the most talented of the trio, but McKinnon had the fattest contract and signing Coleman as a free agent was a significant move.
By comparison, Denver seemed far more clear-cut. Fast-forward to October and there's greater clarity with the 49ers' offense. Now, the Breida-Coleman tandem has Mark Ingram II-Alvin Kamara fantasy potential, which could help those of you trying to solidify running back depth charts for the stretch run.
This is the thought of Footballguys subscriber Zach Prieston, who wrote Ryan Hester and me with this analysis. It's a bold move but you know how I like bold moves, so it made sense to share and explore further:
Both of your weekly articles—The Gut Check and Trendspotting—have been among my favorite weekly reads for the past three years. I have so much respect for your articles and in depth analysis.
In the first half of 2017, both of you saw the trend of Mark Ingram II-Alvin Kamara before anyone else did and provided analysis supporting the idea they both could finish as Top-10 RBs by the end of the year. I was fully sold on it and immediately traded for both of them in Week 7. I dominated rest of the year to make playoffs.
Sadly I lost in week 14 after Kamara left game with a concussion after earning seven PPR points on the first drive. As you can tell, it still hurts.
However, I kept both of them for 2018 and had a perfect 15-0 season—still can't believe it—and I have to give credit to you both for pre-draft and in-season articles that helped me along the way.
Anyway, the reason I brought up the 2017 Ingram-Kamara tandem is because I was doing a little digging into Breida-Coleman. Their production and their offense's efficiency offer an eerily similar start to what Kamara-Ingram earned with the Saints in 2017.
I think it's highly possible that Breida-Coleman could start producing fantasy RB1 numbers down the stretch:
Saints in 2017
- No.2 in offense DVOA
- No.8 in defense DVOA
- 36.19 yards per drive
And when Shanahan was the offensive coordiator for Atlanta in 2016, Freeman finished as the No.6 RB and Coleman finished as No.18 RB.Falcons in 2016
- No.1 offense DVOA
- No.26 in defense DVOA
Shanahan and the 49ers in 2019 through Week 6:
- No.12 in offense DVOA
- No.2 defense DVOA
As for the Coleman-Breida tandem, we have only seen two full games with them in the lineup, but production is promising.Week 5:
- Breida: 11 carries, 114 yds , 3 rec, 15 yds, 2 TDs (27.9 ppr)
- Coleman: 16 carries, 97 yds, 1 TD (15.7 ppr)
- Combined: 27 carries, 211 yds, 3 rec 15 yards, 2 TDs (43.6 ppr)
Week 6:
- Breida: 13 carries, 36 yds , 4 rec 27 yds (10.3 ppr)
- Coleman: 18 carries, 45 yds , 2 rec 16 yds, 1 TD (14.1 ppr)
- Combined: 31 carries, 81 yds , 6 rec 43 yds, 1 TD (24.4 ppr)
Obviously the loss of linemen Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey had a big impact on rushing numbers for Week 6 but when they come back, Week 5's production is an indication that we may be seeing the next 2017 Kamara-Ingram this year with Coleman-Breida.
I noticed so many similarities in offense/defense numbers for the 2017 Saints and 2019 49ers. San Francisco has an elite defense and with Jimmy Garappolo coming off an ACL injury, it makes sense for 49ers to stick with a run heavy-offense.
I attached a chart of the offense efficiency numbers for the 2016 Falcons, 2017 Saints and 2019 49ers.Data Key
Category Definition TO/Dr Turnovers per drive. FUM/Dr Fumbles per drive. TOP/Dr Time of Possession per drive. DSR Drive Success Rate--introduced in Footall Outsiders' 2005 Pro Football Perspectus, it measure the percentage of series that result in a first-down or touchdown (drives where teams take a knee at the end of halves are discarded from the calculation). 3Outs/Dr Three-and-outs (three plays and a punt) per drive. Pts/RZ and TD/RZ Points per red-zone appearance and points per touchdown. Avg. Lead The average lead at the beginning of each drive. Analysis of RB-Heavy Teams
What stands out to me is the turnovers. If 49ers can get this issue under control and Garappolo becomes a more efficient passer, we'll see an increase in Yard per Drive, Points per Red-Zone Appearance and Touchdowns per Red-Zone Appearance, which could mean more production for their running backs.
Matt's Thoughts: Zach did a fine job explaining why the data suggest an additional look into the Breida-Coleman combo. I deliver that examination later in the article. The executive summary? The 49ers run an inventive ground game that disguises what is, at its core, a smashmouth offense. Expect a no worse than a 55-45 split for Coleman and Breida with Coleman earning more attempts and Breida more targets. Both are worth your consideration against a favorable schedule of defenses that give up points to fantasy running backs.
4. IDP Matchups to Exploit And Avoid:
Dave Larkin's weekly feature delivers IDP analysis worth your attention. Below is an explanation of how he generates his recommendations as well as some of the prime cuts from this week's piece. Click on the link above to see the data on every team and season averages from 2016-19 for additional context:
Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
TACKLE MATCH-UPS TO EXPLOIT
NEW YORK GIANTS AND ARIZONA DEFENDERS
Stadium TVO rank: 1st
The Giants and Cardinals both rank among the top 10 teams in terms of pace of play, a statistic that is rarely cited but is tremendously useful. No matter how this game script pans out, the speed at which both teams snap the ball – for Arizona, an average of a play every 24.01 seconds; for the Giants, 26.49 – will produce plenty of tackle opportunity.
The stadium TVO factor is ranked as the league’s best, just to throw another cherry on top of this IDP points sandwich we’re cooking up. All the stars are aligning here to set up a bonanza of tackle production from both teams. Arizona’s offense has been highly efficient, while the Giants offense is likely to see the return of Evan Engram and, perhaps, even Saquon Barkley. Load up on players from this game.
Key stat: The Arizona offense ranks fourth in the league with an average of 25.5 pass completions per game, a positive metric for tackle production.
SEATTLE AND BALTIMORE DEFENDERS
Stadium TVO rank: 4th
The treats just keep on coming for hungry IDP enthusiasts starved of points. The Seahawks have been a fantastic match-up for opposing defenses when it comes to tackle production. The Russell Wilson-led attack averages 56 tackle opportunities allowed along with 30.5 rushing attempts per game. Look across the field and Baltimore’s offense has been similarly charitable, running the ball on 49.8% of their plays. For perspective, the league average is 40%.
The clash of Lamar Jackson and Wilson, facing inferior defenses who will have problems containing them, is a recipe for an explosion of points. The defenses may not have much bearing on the outcome of this game, but they will certainly be worked and worked often. Shoehorn IDPs from this game into your line-ups.
Key stat: Baltimore’s offense has allowed a whopping 60.7 tackle opportunities per game.
TACKLE MATCH-UPS TO AVOID
NEW ORLEANS DEFENDERS AT CHICAGO
Stadium TVO rank: 28th
Whether it is Chase Daniel or Mitchell Trubisky under center for the Bears this week, it may not matter one iota for tackle production. The Bears offense has averaged just 23.8 rush attempts per game and remains an inconsistent unit capable of massive blow-ups or horrific implosions. The Saints defense, meanwhile, has seen a below-average 47.5 tackle opportunities per game, not surprising considering how dominant they have been.
The TVO factor at Soldier Field is not conducive to standout tackle performances from key defensive players. A game script where one team gets out to a comfortable lead, allowing them to run the ball often, could yield a decent tackle day from one or two players, but it is a risk not worth taking.
Key stat: Chicago’s offense has averaged just 48.8 tackle opportunities per game, down on the league average of 50.6.
Matt's Recommendations: Considering the way Larkin lays out the Bears-Saints game, I'm considering Tarik Cohen in my lineups as a bye-week option in PPR leagues this weekend after keeping him on my bench for much of the early fall. He's earning an uptick in targets and he should match up well with the Saints' defense that has yielded 4-6 receptions to Duke Johnson Jr, C.J. Prosise, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette.
The Seattle-Baltimore game should be a strong fantasy matchup for Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson as well as the Seahawks wide receivers and Ravens tight ends. Mark Ingram and Chris Carson remain must-starts.
While a data-intensive study may suggest that Arizona's porous fantasy production against tight ends will eventually experience a regression if Evan Engram is healthy enough to play, don't expect it to happen this week. If Engram is out, then Darius Slayton and Golden Tate are worthwhile options.
5. INjury expectations: Midweek update
Jene Bramel's injury reports come out Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday. If you're not reading them or at least listening to Bramel on the Audible Podcast, you're missing one of the most important resources at Footballguys.com.
Bramel updates a spreadsheet that includes the injuries that teams have made public of every notable player regardless of position. Here are some of the Wednesday updates and Bramel's thoughts:
***The Giants are likely to have both Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back at full strength. Both fully practiced Wednesday.
***Tom Pelissero described Alvin Kamara's recent ankle injury as a "high-ankle type issue" and his knee injury during last week's game looked like a low-grade MCL sprain. Either injury might be enough to keep Kamara from playing this week. Given both injuries, he should be considered doubtful to go.
***Amari Cooper is unlikely to play after managing only three plays while trying to work through a quad contusion last week.
***The Packers' top three receivers may not play this week. Davante Adams doesn't seem close to practicing, Geronimo Allison sustained a Monday night concussion and has a tough short turnaround to get cleared, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling didn't practice with a low-grade high ankle sprain. Valdes-Scantling has the best chance to play but should be considered questionable at best.
***Kliff Kingsbury told reporters David Johnson could be dealing with his back injury for another week or two but the Cardinals listed Johnson as a Wednesday DNP with an ankle injury. Hopefully, there'll be clarification on Johnson's injury and status on Thursday.
***Todd Gurley was cleared for individual drills on Wednesday as the Rams evaluate whether his quadricep has recovered. If he practices on Thursday, he has a good chance to return this week.
Matt's Recommendations: I may play a doctor on TV, but I am not remotely an injury expert. If Bramel goes against the grain with Cooper, who has talked about his potential to play in a more optimistic light, I'm listening to the doc.
Good luck this week, and may all of your bold calls come true.