WEEK 14 PREPARATION
9 THOUGHTS WORTH THINKING
Some of you may disagree with these thoughts and opinions, but that's fine. I like to follow stats, trends, and matchups. These thoughts are based on those observations.
1. Devonta Freeman for the win? In the playoffs, players often emerge and provide a boost to your lineup thanks to a favorable matchup or opportunity. In the case of Freeman, he has a home matchup against the reeling Panthers run defense who could not contain arguably one of the bottom 5 rushing offenses in Washington last week. Carolina has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns to running backs since Week 4 and has averaged 2 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs since Week 10. Last week Freeman returned from an ankle injury and led the ground game with 17 carries for 51 yards and 4 receptions on 62 snaps. He is poised to make a big fantasy splash in Week 14.
2. Starting both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler is a good decision. Since Week 7, both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have either scored a touchdown or totaled 90+ yards, or both. Since Week 7, there have been three games where both backs scored at least 1 touchdown. This week the Chargers play at Jacksonville who has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to running backs this year. They also have allowed at least two rushing touchdowns to running backs in each of the last three games (seven rushing touchdowns allowed in their last four games). Since Week 10, running backs against Jacksonville have averaged 157 yards rushing per game.
3. Receiving backs thrive against Arizona - This week the Steelers travel to Arizona for a Week 14 road game. It is not yet known if James Conner (shoulder) will be back for this game, but if he is not, Jaylen Samuels becomes a player of interest. Since Week 9, Samuels leads the team in targets (31) and receptions (26). Benny Snell has taken over as the primary rusher for Pittsburgh in Conner's absence, but Samuels has been a hot receiver, catching at least 2 passes in every game but three. Arizona is also a good team to exploit. The Cardinals have allowed 8 different running backs to top 30 yards receiving this season. Since Week 10 they have allowed an average of 9 catches to running backs for 92 yards per game - easily the most in the league (66 yds allowed per game by Seattle is 2nd most).
4. New England pass defense is coming back to earth. The Patriots defense held opposing quarterbacks from throwing a touchdown pass in Weeks 1-5. Since then, they have seven, including three from Deshaun Watson last week. Can Patrick Mahomes II do any damage against them this week? My gut says yes, but it is by no means a favorable matchup, especially not on the road in Foxboro in December. New England has gone from the top overall pass defense to the 16th best pass defense since Week 8. The Patriots have not allowed a 275-yard passer this season in a year where there have been 103 300-yard passers. Mahomes may not have a dominant game that automatically advances you to the next round of the playoffs, but it's not all doom and gloom. Deshaun Watson showed us last week that they can be hurt.
5. Start your quarterbacks against the Giants. Carson Wentz will have at least 20 fantasy points this week. At least that's what the deep trend says. The Giants have allowed 20+ fantasy points to quarterbacks in every game but two this season. Even Mitchell Trubisky passed for 278 yards against New York. Opposing quarterbacks have now reached three touchdown passes against the Giants in five games this season. Wentz is a good start this week with an A+ matchup.
6. Think twice about starting a quarterback against Baltimore. After giving up three 340+ yard games in the first four games, the Ravens have buckled down against quarterbacks, holding four to less than 200 yards passing since Week 4. Only one quarterback all season has more than one touchdown pass against them. That includes Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Tom Brady. This week, Josh Allen will face off against Baltimore. Allen is third in quarterback rushing yards (430) and first in quarterback rushing touchdowns (8). However, he has thrown one or zero touchdown passes in seven games this year. Allen may be able to scramble against Baltimore and find the end zone, but as a passer, he could have a lower than normal game.
7. This isn't the week for the Saints to hit it big. The 49ers have allowed only 3 touchdowns to running backs all year. That includes rushing and receiving. Christian McCaffrey, Kenyan Drake, and Chris Carson are the only backs to score against the vaunted 49ers defense. This week New Orleans will have a chance against San Francisco. It's difficult to bench a player like Alvin Kamara (or Latavius Murray), but the odds aren't in their favor. To stretch the concern further, San Francisco has held opposing quarterbacks to one or zero touchdown passes in eight games this season. Nine times the 49ers held quarterbacks to less than 200 yards passing. Drew Brees has a tough matchup which also means Michael Thomas might struggle. If anyone is going to find the end zone for New Orleans, it's Thomas, but this is likely not going to be one of his better games.
8. DeVante Parker could be a league-winner. Every year we see players peak at the right time for the fantasy playoffs. This week it might be Parker. Since Week 9 Parker is the #3 fantasy wide receiver (FanDuel scoring). This week, the Dolphins travel to New York to face the Jets who have improved against the pass lately, but they are still a liability. Only D.J. Moore, Jarvis Landry, and Mike Evans have more targets than Parker since Week 9. Only Moore has more receiving yards than him in that span. The loss of Preston Williams and the ability of Ryan Fitzpatrick has elevated Parker's game to the point where he is hitting every week. He has 6 catches or a touchdown in every game but one since Week 7. In that game, he still had a respectable 5 catches for 69 yards.
9. James White season is upon us. Last week we saw James White explode for 79 yards rushing on 14 carries, plus 8 catches for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has topped (or tied) all Patriots running backs in snaps in five of the last six games including 78% of the team's offensive snaps in Week 13. The Patriots are struggling to find success with their current receiving corps. Julian Edelman is being double-teamed and this year there is no Rob Gronkowski to help balance the attack. After Edelman, White is second on the team in targets with 76. His 57 receptions is 5th among running backs and he has 29 more than the next closest teammate (Phillip Dorsett 28). The Patriots are known for finding success at running back from different players, but White's receiving game makes him a commodity that likely won't go away. Also, New England's schedule against the run is one of the best in the league in the remaining four games (KC, at CIN, BUF, and MIA).
Good luck this week. Hoping you all Survive and Advance.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com