General Thoughts
We’ve seen the chalk hitting a lot this year. Last week it was Jaylen Samuels getting targeted on nearly 60% of his snaps and Russell Wilson being allowed to throw against the awful Buccaneers pass defense. Wilson threw so much that the Seahawks dropped from the 2nd most run-heavy team all the way to the 9th in one week! Earlier this year it was guys like Kenny Golladay, Latavius Murray, Leonard Fournette, Austin Hooper, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, Will Fuller, the Patriots Defense, etc. that all had big games when they were heavy chalk. In just about every week this year, the top owned player on the slate (or one of the top 5) was a difference-maker that you needed in your lineup. We’ve talked a lot about this at Footballguys. Is the DFS landscape changing again where ownership on players is no longer high enough to fade? Should you be playing all the chalky players? A hypothesis for this might be that the public is getting better at identifying the chalky players so it is correct to play them since they are good plays. Whereas in previous seasons maybe the chalky players weren’t always the best plays which is why they failed.
The stats this year would certainly support the idea that you should play more chalky players. But there is a lot of variance in the NFL still. Samuels is a great example from last week. Samuels was the mega chalk that couldn’t fail because he was the lead back on the Steelers and was going to get all the rushing attempts, he could handle. The Steelers had literally no one else. But what happened was Samuels only played 64% of the snaps and had fewer rushing attempts than Trey Edmunds 12-8. The only thing that saved Samuels from busting was that he was targeted an insane 13 times and he caught all of them for 73 yards. If you had those receiving yards in your projection, they were either bad projections or you have the Back to the Future sports almanac. Outside of those two things you were lucky. Even with all those targets, a similarly priced Preston Williams pivot outscored Samuels.
I don’t think Samuels was a bad play. I played him quite heavily. However, it is an example of where it looks like Samuels was a slam dunk play and the chalk crushed as expected again. But in reality, it took a lot of luck for one of the best plays in the year to get there. You should never go so far as to always fade the chalk. They are the most likely to score a lot of points. That’s why they are the chalk. But I wouldn’t go out of your way to load up on the chalk plays just because they have been so profitable thus far in 2019.
How to play the chalk
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part of DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
QB
It appears there will be quite a few chalky QBs this week led by Lamar Jackson. Jackson gets a rematch of his week 6 matchup against the Bengals where he threw for 236 yards and added 152 yards on the ground as well as a rushing TD. Another score like that could certainly win the slate. Jackson’s rushing floor gives him a floor as good as anyone in the league besides a healthy Patrick Mahomes II. Jackson has only really busted once this season which was week 6 against the Steelers. To make the situation better Jackson gets a prime matchup against the Bengals who are allowing the most yards per play in the league. Yes, even worse than the Dolphins.
The biggest worry about Jackson is the game script may not be favorable as a 10-point favorite. If the Ravens pull ahead early it’s likely that the Ravens call off the passing attack and more importantly, they will make sure that the runs are coming from Mark Ingram instead of Jackson. Running quarterbacks rush attempts decrease significantly in blowouts to keep them safe. Since there are currently several quarterbacks with similar ownerships and all are good plays, I don’t think ownership is a big factor in our decision this week unless Jackson’s ownership projection rises sharply over the weekend. I am leaning towards making Jackson a key part of my GPP plans but if I was doing a single lineup, I would probably pass on him.
RB
There isn’t a clear-cut chalk play at RB but at the time of this writing, I have Christian McCaffrey leading the way. We haven’t had much opportunity to take advantage of McCaffrey’s amazing season lately on the main slate as he was on the Saturday morning game week 6, on bye week 7, had a brutal matchup against the 49ers where he topped 150 all-purpose yards then was priced up last week which incorrectly scared some people off of him as he hit pay dirt 3 times and again topped 150 yards. For the last month, a lot of people have been sitting on the sideline watching McCaffrey have an offensive player of the year type of season. This week the sites haven’t made it any easier as both Fanduel and Draftkings have priced McCaffrey up to the highest point that we have seen any player this season at $10,500. At such a high price we are going to need a score of 30+ points to be able to win a tournament with McCaffrey. So far this year he has done that in 3 of 8 games, 37.5%. His ownership is currently coming in somewhere in the low 20% range so his ownership isn’t a big negative to us this week. If it starts creeping up into the 30% range I will be concerned. So, make McCaffrey a key part of your GPP plans. However, I would keep him out of my single-entry lineups because I rather play our chalky wide receiver.
WR
That wide receiver is Michael Thomas. Over the last few years, there has been no other wide receiver I have used more than Thomas and more times than not he has paid off. We never saw Thomas slow down when Teddy Bridgewater came in to replace Drew Brees as Bridgewater knew his best avenue for success was to force-feed Thomas. In Brees first game back it was clear he missed throwing to Thomas as he targeted him 11 times and they connected on all 11 for 112 yards and a TD. Thomas has seen 10+ targets in all but two games and he still had 95 yards or a TD in those other two games. This week Thomas is going up against the Falcons who are allowing the second-most yards per attempt as well as completions on 70% of those attempts. The Brees/Thomas combination has one of the best completion rates in the game. They are only going to improve on that this week.
The two major concerns for Thomas are his projected ownership which is definitively ahead of other great options like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as well as the return of Alvin Kamara as he is currently looking probable at the time of this writing. But even if Kamara plays I don’t worry about Thomas as he will get his targets no matter what. Hopefully, it will take some of the ownership from Thomas. Play Thomas in your single-entry contest this week.
TE
So far, we have talked about three of the most explosive players in the game. Things change a bit as we get to tight end where Jack Doyle appears to be one of the chalkiest plays this week. The other three guys have proven track records. Doyle, on the other hand, has only surpassed 50 receiving yards once and has only scored 2 TDs. Jacoby Brissett is currently banged up and has been limited in both Wednesday and Thursday practices. It would be a better spot for Doyle if Brissett were to miss the game as Hoyer is more likely to take some risks that could lead to a bigger Doyle game.
The big allure for Doyle is the 1) T.Y. Hilton injury, 2) a great matchup against the Dolphins, and 3) of course his price. Looking at those one-by-one we know that Hilton missed last week’s game. In that game, Doyle only drew 4 targets and totaled 22 yards and a TD. Outside of the TD, he didn’t gain much from Hilton’s absence. Secondly, the matchup against the Dolphins is outstanding. The Dolphins are coming off their first win of the season but they are still allowing the fourth-most yards per pass and the third-most TD passes per game. A general rule of playing the players going against the Dolphins still stands. The price is especially key this week with great high-priced players like Jackson, McCaffrey, and Thomas without another clear punt play at this time. No matter how much I look at those benefits I see an average player with below-average quarterback play and I think he is a fade for me in tournaments.UPDATE: With Brissett ruled out and Deon Cain cut I think Doyle is a much better play than when I originally wrote this up. I think the Colts may pass more with Hoyer and some extra snaps may open up without Cain. Additionally, Doyle's ownership has come down the last few days so I think he should now be a part of your GPP plans again. Eric Ebron may also make a better contrarian play than Mike Gesicki that I wrote up below as Gesicki's ownership has risen.
Playing contrarian
If you play too many chalky players you will be competing against too many people to win first place and the odds will be stacked against you. If you play too many contrarian players you won’t score enough points. Remember, the plays are contrarian because most likely there is something wrong with that player. In general, the public is very smart. Finding that right mix is the second hardest thing to do in DFS. In this section, I will try to point you to some of the most contrarian options on the slate with ownership projection below 5%.
Jared Goff has already blown up the slate a few times when he threw for 517 yards in week 4, 395 in week 5, and another 372 in week 8. Despite all those yards he hasn’t had a 3 TD game yet which is bound to come at some point. Because of the lack of TDs, the public is overlooking Goff and he is coming in at just 2% owned. One of the struggles with Goff is often knowing who to stack him with as he has three strong receivers. But Cooks is out again this week which narrows his most likely stack partners to Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and potentially Gerald Everett which should make it a bit easier to identify the right play. The matchup against the Steelers isn’t ideal as they are middle of the pack in yards per attempt but that’s fine for such low ownership.
Kenyan Drake has moved on to the Cardinals and Mark Walton has been suspended leaving Kalen Ballage as the primary back in Miami. Ballage’s price is one of the cheapest across the industry as Walton’s suspension wasn’t announced until after the prices were released. Most people will be scared off of Ballage due to his team being the Dolphins, rightfully so. But they are no longer historically bad since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over for Josh Rosen. With Preston Williams also out for the year they are going to need a way to move the ball and Ballage could be that guy. It won’t be easy to click that button to add him to your lineup but it never really is if you want a lineup that can take down a big tournament.
Marvin Jones seems to have become the forgotten man as the entire DFS community has jumped on the Kenny Golladay train in the last few weeks. But don’t forget it’s Jones who has topped 100 yards or score multiple TDS in 3 of 8 weeks. This week’s matchup against the Bears is far from ideal as they rank 7th best in yards per pass. But if you can get Jones at less than 5% ownership, I like taking a shot or two with him, even if you are only building a couple of lineups.
Last week we crushed Noah Fant in this spot and this week I am going to another ugly spot with the aforementioned Miami Dolphins and rely on Mike Gesicki. If Ballage can’t move the ball for the Dolphins it might be Gesicki’s chance to shine. Gesicki received 6 targets and hauled all 6 in for 95 yards last week and is playing over 60% of the snaps for most of the season. With Drake, Walton, and Williams all leaving the team in the last two weeks there are a lot of targets to go around and given Gesicki’s playmaking ability they may give him some more snaps. Gesicki is a previous second-round pick and someone the Dolphins should see what they have in him during this broken season. Gesicki should be targeted heavily and on Fanduel is currently projected at less than 5% ownership. Due to his low price on Draftkings, he is projected to have a slightly higher ownership and is probably more of a fade.
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