Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED THURSDAY, JANUARY 10th @ 5 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Indianapolis | -5.5 | 31.25 | 57 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Philadelphia | -8 | 29.25 | 50.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | Dallas | -7 | 28.25 | 49.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Indianapolis | Kansas City | 5.5 | 25.75 | 57 | + | + | |
| New England | LA Chargers | -4 | 25.5 | 47 | + | + | |
| LA Chargers | New England | 4 | 21.5 | 47 | |||
| Philadelphia | New Orleans | 8 | 21.25 | 50.5 | |||
| Dallas | LA Rams | 7 | 21.25 | 49.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Drew Brees (Saints), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: Damien Williams/Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Todd Gurley (Rams)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Ben Watson (Saints), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds/Gerald Everett (Rams)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: None
- Receivers: None
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Andrew Luck (Colts), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Marlon Mack (Colts), Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead (Patriots)
- Receivers: T.Y. Hilton/Chester Rogers/Dontrelle Inman/Eric Ebron (Colts), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Phillip Dorsett/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: None
